Wealdstone (h)
Notts will be hoping it truly is a ‘Good Friday’ as they welcome Wealdstone to Meadow Lane. The part time outfit have defied the odds this season, with playoffs still not out of the realms of possibility for the Stones. However, with 8 points now separating them from that all important 7th place, this game feels like a must win, adding even more jeopardy to an already important game. Notts too need a win, to ensure they go into their clash with Wrexham still in touching distance, meaning this is a game of real significance.
It will also be a clash between 2 sides who look to get on the ball and dominate possession. Visitors Wealdstone rank 4th in the league in terms of ball retention, averaging 55.4% possession so far this season. Stuart Maynard likes to get his side to recycle the ball, especially round the back, drawing the opposition out of their shape to create openings. When you consider the Wealdstone players only train a few times a week, due to their part time status, this is especially impressive.
However, the Stones are likely going to need to adapt their play when they visit Meadow Lane. Followers of the Magpies will know by now that Notts dominate the ball like no other side at this level. In fact, their average possession is an incredible 69.7%, just a ridiculous number. Notts are unlikely to compromise on an approach which has garnered 97 points to this point, especially at home, so it’s likely Wealdstone are the side that are going to have to adjust their style. They will spend large portions of the game out of possession, something unfamiliar to them, and Notts must look to press this advantage early on.
However, the Stones are likely going to need to adapt their play when they visit Meadow Lane. Followers of the Magpies will know by now that Notts dominate the ball like no other side at this level. In fact, their average possession is an incredible 69.7%, just a ridiculous number. Notts are unlikely to compromise on an approach which has garnered 97 points to this point, especially at home, so it’s likely Wealdstone are the side that are going to have to adjust their style. They will spend large portions of the game out of possession, something unfamiliar to them, and Notts must look to press this advantage early on.
Current Form:
Three defeats and a draw in their last 4 games has probably put to bed any thoughts Wealdstone may have had of making the play-off's.
In fact two of their three wins in the last 10 outings were against clubs, who at the time of playing were holding up the bottom of the table. 8 Goals in their last 6 outings compared to 16 conceded suggests they are not now going to be pulling up any trees for the remainder of the season.
Wealdstone are clearly a team that like to try and play with the ball to feet, looking to maintain possession as much as possible. However, a distinct lack of press or challenge intensity are indicative of traits we have seen at Notts in previous seasons. It's one thing passing around the back to create openings further up the field, it's another thing if your advanced options don't necessarily have the skill sets to help create those openings. This results in a great deal of back line possession and not a great deal of attacking threat. The lack of territory and wing play from Wealdstone is a clear indication that this is an area they have struggled with in recent games.
Tactics & Players:
Wealdstone are tactically flexible though, something they have shown in their team shape over the recent months. Boss Stuart Maynard, who is a BT Engineer in his everyday life, has set his side up to be able to play a 4-1-4-1, but just as easily transition to a 5-3-2, such is the fluidity in their side. It can’t be overstated how incredible the job Stuart Maynard is doing; he featured as our Q1 Best Manager, and for good reason. He gets his side playing attractive, effective football, all on a tiny budget and less training hours. It’s remarkable.
Wealdstone have fluidity in their attacking options too. The quartet of Corie Andrews, Micah Obiero, Tarryn Allarakhia and Olufela Olomola have all played important roles this season, and often interchange. This is especially the case of Obiero and Allarakhia, who have operated on the wings, through the centre, in midfield or even at wing back at times this season, such is their flexibility.
Andrews is a recent recruit, having joined from Torquay, where he failed to hit the back of the net. However, as Maynard tends to do, he soon had Andrews firing. The athletic forward already has 3 goals to his name in a Wealdstone shirt, and on the break he is the most likely to cause Notts issues. Andrews has EFL quality, and with Maynard beginning to unlock his potential he is a real danger man come Friday.
Maynard will face a tough decision in who he opts to pair Andrews with in attack, as both Olomola and Obiero have 7 goals to their name, the highest of any Wealdstone player still with the club. Olomola is a powerful forward, one who is strong despite his short stature. He is also in form, having scored a crucial goal in their 2-2 draw with Oldham last time out, so he will feel he merits his place in the side. That was Olomola’s first goal since Boxing Day though, so Notts will be hoping it isn’t the start of a goalscoring run.
The other option, Micah Obiero, may be a name familiar to Notts fans, as he netted Wealdstone’s only goal in their 6-1 defeat in the reverse fixture. He was a bright spark that night, and showed that he is a young player with real promise. Quick and tricky, Obiero is a talented forward in and around the box. He’s versatile too, having played at wing back/winger last time out, despite being most comfortable in a central forward role. The 22 year old’s story becomes even more interesting when you consider he started this season on the bench for Boston United. After playing just 181 minutes in 7 appearances, Obiero opted to move on, and has found his fortune is far brighter in the south. He’s likely to be a danger man once more this Friday, and Notts will be aware of the threat he poses.
Stats:
Wealdstone currently sit 10th in the league on 56 points, 8 points behind Eastleigh who currently occupy the last play off place.
On the road Stones have not had the worst season managing 6 wins and 6 draws from 20 games.
In attack they are averaging 1.31 goals per game compared to an xG of 1.16 so performing a fraction better than expected in front of goal.
Defensively they record similarly conceding 1.56 goals per game compared to 1.64 xCG.
In Notts Wealdstone will come up against a team that has averaged 2.35 goals per game at home conceding just 0.55 goals per home game played.
Wealdstone Away Form:
P 20 | W 6 | D 6 | L 8 | F 21 | A 34 | GD -13 | PTS 24
Leading Scorers:
Notts:
Macaulay Langstaff - 40 (xG 32.91)
Wealdstone:
Micah Obiero - 7 (xG 4.07)
Olufela Olomola - 7 (xG 7.93)
Odds:
Notts at home means ridiculous odds as favourites once again with the best currently available being 3/20 from VBet.
William Hill are offering 16/1 for the away win and you can get 29/4 for the draw with bwin.
Based on these odds there is a 87% chance of a Notts win and 5.88% chance of a Wealdstone win.
Wrexham (a)
Wrexham boss Phil Parkinson came in for some criticism when he failed to land promotion last term, and the pressure mounted after a mixed start. However, he has silenced the critics this season, delivering 100 points and 105 goals by early April. And while Parkinson undoubtedly has the best tools at his disposal in this division, it is a difficult, and unique task, to get all of the star players on the same page. To get players of their ability to play as a collective, rather than a group of individuals, is a trickier prospect than one might expect. And whatever one might think of Parkinson and his tactics, they cannot deny he has cultivated a harmonious dressing room, one with a winning attitude.
Current Form:
Not a great deal to discuss here. it's clear Wrexham know how to win games and that is confirmed in the fact you have to go right back to their defeat at Meadow Lane in early October before seeing an 'L' in their league results table.
There is an interesting dichotomy in the way people who don't regularly watch Wrexham perceive their style of play. There is no doubting they are a strong physical side and one that makes the most of direct play and set pieces. However, they are more than capable of playing the ball to feet, maintaining possession and creating high value chances in advanced area's.
Tactics & Players:
Wrexham’s biggest threat is undoubtedly set pieces, and they are equally effective at all 3; corners, free kicks and throw ins. They have an excellent delivery from either side, as well as Ben Tozer’s now infamous long throw, and when you couple this with the height they possess in their side they become extremely dangerous. In fact, Wrexham had the ball in the net 4 times inside the opening 30 minutes against Oldham, only 2 of which stood, but all 4 came from set piece situations, just showing how potent they can be for the Welsh side.
It’s unusual to see Wrexham come up against a side who will dominate them, such is the strength of their side. One such example is against Sheffield United, and some interesting parallels can be drawn. Wrexham would look to go direct, and progress up the pitch as quickly as possible. They would look to either get it in behind for Paul Mullin and Ollie Palmer to expose the high line, or they would look to progress the ball down the flanks through the wing backs. Both are extremely problematic for Notts, especially in the way they set up to defend.
Firstly, Notts do play with a high line. They commit almost all bodies into the opposition half in order to squeeze the opposition and dominate the play. This means they have all 3 centre backs high up, contributing to the phases of possession. This may leave Notts exposed, especially with a forward like Mullin, who thrives playing on the shoulder of the last man. This could be particularly problematic, as Notts may still be without Aden Baldwin, and with Richard Brindley still not back to full fitness, the backline may be lacking some pace. This could be exposed by Wrexham, who play direct, with pace in their side, especially down the right hand side through Ryan Barnett. The former Solihull man is fast and tricky with the ball at his feet so Adam Chicksen and Kyle Cameron will have to be switched on to ensure Barnett doesn't have the time and space to punish the Notts rearguard.
Defending those wide areas will be a key battle for Notts who already commit the wing backs forwards, leaving them exposed at times down the flanks, and the way in which Wrexham attack makes this even more dangerous. Wrexham, like Notts, like to commit their wing backs to the wide areas. They look to draw challenges in these zones, as, more often than not, it will lead to set piece chances, where they flourish. If a challenge is mistimed a free kick or corner will be conceded, where they certainly have the advantage.
Most crucially though is the effectiveness of their throw. It’s almost more dangerous than their other set pieces, such is the consistency and flatness of the delivery. Tozer rarely misses, providing a real weapon for them to utilise. It’s unique, and is therefore hard to prepare for, something which just adds to their advantage. However, the threat of the throw is almost more powerful than the throw itself. It makes sides reluctant to put challenges in the wide areas for fear of conceding a throw in a dangerous area. This completely alters the way in which a side defends, as they struggle to commit in those zones. This allows Wrexham to commit more men to these areas, progress further up the pitch, and crucially dominate the play. It’s not uncommon to see Elliot Lee being allowed to cut inside from the left, just so the opposition can drag Wrexham away from these wide areas; Lee is ridiculously dangerous when cutting in though, and when given the opportunity, will look to curl one into the far corner, usually to devastating effect.
It’s a difficult situation to manage, and it is a problem that Luke Williams must overcome. Notts cannot be afraid to commit in those wide areas, and also must not allow Wrexham to dominate them, as it is where Notts themselves find much of their success. They cannot afford to be non committal in a game of this magnitude, and must therefore put faith in the defensive unit to deal with the aerial bombardment that is likely to ensue. This aerial prowess potentially poses the biggest selection dilemma for Luke Williams too. Do you back the pace that Brindley provides for the high line, or do you go with the aerial dominance of Connell Rawlinson? The personnel he chooses is likely to have a large baring on the way in which Notts defend in this game.
Whilst we have covered many of Wrexham's strengths there are area's of their game that Notts can look to try and exploit.
In the same way that Wrexham will try to get in behind the Notts high line the same can be said for Notts, especially down the flanks. Both Wrexham wingbacks will look to press high in the attacking transitions, however, they are not averse to losing the ball in the final third during these attacking phases providing opportunities for Notts to get in behind the Wrexham high line.
Also, when defending their own defensive third they are not afraid to put a foot in. This means they can be susceptible to giving away free kicks in dangerous areas. The data suggests they are more exposed to this down their left where Mendy is dangerous going forward but not the best defensively so having Aaron Nemane firing on all cylinders, possibly with the addition of Jodi Jones, could see Mendy being pinned back and committing fouls to compensate.
Whilst much of the discussion has been looking at the threats and weaknesses of both sides down the flanks it's impossible to ignore the midfield battle. We are all aware of threat faced from Elliott Lee but equally important is the disruption seen from former Hull City man Andy Cannon who scores highly for recoveries and possession adjusting interceptions. Acting as the pivot for the midfield three Cannon, who had a successful spell on loan at Stockport last season will do the hard work, using all of his experience experience to allow Lee and Jones the freedom to be creative on recovery of possession.
This where Jim O'Brien with his high energy challenge intensity would be a key player for Notts along with the advanced midfielders of Bostock, Austin, Jones etc who will need to be aggressive in their press, limiting the Wrexham midfield trio of time to think on the ball.
Ultimately the margin for error on both sides is miniscule such is the depth of ability within both camps.
Stats:
Strap yourselves in because unless you're a Wrexham fan this is quite a frightening read!
Wrexham currently sit top of the table with 100 points from 40 games meaning they have averaged an unbelievable 2.50 PPG. However, this is only fractionally better than Notts who are averaging 2.36 PPG. The key factor though is that Wrexham sit 3 points clear of Notts with a game in hand.
They have definitely been better at home winning 19 of 20 games played and drawing the other so have an average 2.90 PPG at the Racecourse Ground.
Phil Parkinson's men have averaged 2.62 goals per game compared to an xG of just 2.03 clearly showing how clinical they have been in front of goal.
They are only conceding 0.90 goals per game with an xCG of 0.83 so pretty much as expected.
Wrexham Home Form:
P 20 | W 19 | D 1 | L 0 | F 65 | A 16 | GD +49 | PTS 58
Leading Scorer:
Paul Mullin - 33 (xG 25.90)
Odds:
With both teams playing on Good Friday it's a bit too early for finding odds for this game. However 10BET are currently showing odds of 3/25 for a Wrexham win and interestingly 5/1 for a Notts win.
We fully expect these to change after Fridays games but based on the odds above Wrexham would have a 89.92% chance of winning and Notts 20% chance of victory.
Final thoughts:
For Notts the Wealdstone game is very much as important as the Wrexham encounter. A failure to collect all 3 points on Friday will almost certainly draw a line under any intentions Notts have of pushing Wrexham for the title. However, a win will ensure the Magpies remain within touching distance of Parkinson's men ensuring both teams go into that Bank Holiday Monday game with everything to play for. Not a game for the feint hearted!!
Full stats report of both games to follow.
COYP!
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Notes:
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