NCS Shorts | #8: Magic!

Hello and welcome to episode eight of NCS Shorts. I'm Colin and I'm joined here by my partner in crime, Rich O'gando. Rich, obviously you weren't able to join us on episode seven. How are you? What you've been up to?

Yeah. Good. Thank you, Colin. Great to be back. Bit busy with the day job, so couldn't get on last week, unfortunately, but I did listen in. Great show, as usual, but, yeah, really happy to be back in the seat again tonight.

Fantastic. And one person who can't be here, because he's in the magical, mystical world of Hogwarts, is Tom, although he has sent his thoughts to us and we'll be listening to those in a minute. So, Tom, if you're out there, hope you're having a great time. I don't quite know whether Hagrid's got use for amateur data analysis and talent identification, but maybe that's something that they're branching out into. So I hope he's having a great time. So we're going to be listening to Tom's thoughts on Salford or post Salford now, and then we'll be able to have a little in depth conversation between myself and Rich about Salford and about some players who stood out.

Yeah, I was really happy with the result. I'm really happy with the performance, to be honest. Say it's a Friday night game. I think that we played really well. Extra days preparation would be nice this week, but I quite enjoyed having the Saturday off and was able to relax with us. Already having the points in the bag, but obviously don't want that to be the case going forwards. I enjoy the Saturday 03:00 kickoffs, but as for the game itself, thought we were utterly dominant up, saved for a 1015 minutes period. We've pretty much dominated the whole game. We looked really good, really impressed with the performances of several players. Well, that to a man, we were fantastic, to be fair. Sam Austin was brilliant playing out of position. Aiden Stone was commanding yet again. And of course, Dan Crowley is going to get the plaudits and I'm sure you're going to talk about him some more. So I think that overall, I was just really impressed, keeping a clean sheet away from home, picking all three points up on the road. You can't complain. And I think that we have to be very happy with that.

Right. Thanks for that, Tom. So, Rich, over to you a little bit. Salford, obviously a place that lives in, haunts the nightmares of an awful lot of Notts fans. After we probably for the first time, but not for the last time, were the victims of a TV documentary featuring celebrity takeovers. And with Notts coming out second best on that particular occasion, what were your thoughts of the Salford game?

Well, firstly, I was just over the moon that we managed to come away from there with the result because after that game that you just mentioned, and obviously there was the infamous tee throwing from the Salford fan wasn't there. So was it Julian Jenner who got that in the face? I think, if remember rightly, it was just great for us to come away with such a convincing win, really. And of course, I think you mentioned maybe in the last episode about how the press could really work against a team like Salford. Yeah, that's exactly what Notts did. They came out and they were aggressive. The intensity was there, the challenge intensity, wanting to pick up the first ball, the second ball at every opportunity paid dividends in the end and we were unfortunate not to go in at halftime probably maybe two or three goals up rather than just the one that we had. I think.

Yeah, I mean, like I say, not wanting to toot my own trumpet and hopefully Hagrid's listening and he can recruit me for Hogwarts as well. But no, you're absolutely right. I did feel that when Tom was talking about on the last episode and we'd looked at the data a little bit and we realized that these are two sides, Notts and Salford, who like to play the ball and like to play that kind of possession. I felt the game would be far more about who can win that ball back and turn possession over and make it count. And it was a bit of a throwback, I felt, to the National League days where Notts seemed to be that side that liked to win the ball high and early, turn possession over and turn it into some fantastic chances. So it was really great to see that Notts have still got that in their arsenal, really, because I don't think it's necessarily a weapon that we've used regularly because often the teams that we've come up against in the league have countered Nottst's possession style. I'm thinking about Akrinton, particularly by stepping back a little bit, getting into shape, covering the half spaces and really trying to make it hard for not to play through. But when you're playing a side that has a similar sort of possession style, I think that something else had to give. And we've talked about this before, Rich. I know you've talked about this before, the flexibility within the squad. So although that squad is small, limited in numbers, what it seems to have, and I think this was demonstrated in the Salford game again, is a range of threats and a range of ways to hurt teams. And so obviously, as Notts fans, we're absolutely delighted to see that come to fruition. But somebody caught your eye particularly, didn't they, in terms of the Salford game? Because you've written a fantastic piece for NCS News about that.

Yeah. So when I did the stats report, firstly, I just want to say Dan Crowley, for starters, what a fantastic game he had and what a find he is. And while players like Crowley and Macca, et cetera, are getting all the diets, I think one of the unsung heroes at the moment for Notts is Aiden Stone in goal. And we're starting to see now what obviously the club saw in him when they were looking to bring him here, or the hierarchy at the club, the recruitment team at the club were looking at. He really changes the dynamic for Notts in games. Now, when you mentioned about going back to those National League days, I think back to games like, was it the talkie game where they just parked the bus and for 90 OD minutes we were just banging at the door. Banging at the door. And we just couldn't break it down because basically we were very, very one dimensional from the kind of team that we were. That attacking approach was very one dimensional. It was roll the ball out to one of the centre backs, play around the back a bit, down the channels, through the middle, back out to the channels, get across in and try and get on the end of it. But what we've added now with obviously we've got David Mccoldrick up front now as well, and he provides us with that little bit of physicality up front that allows us to play a longer ball instead of always looking to play the short ball out. And that way we've become unpredictable. And I think this is something that Aidan Stone is really starting to make his own now, because he can actually dictate the style of the buildup, the tempo of the build up, depending on how he distributes that ball. I think we had eight goal kicks, eight goal kicks against Salford and seven of those went long. Now, you would never have seen that at all last season, but we've got the players this season that allows to do know. Yes, the Goldrich's not always going to get his head on it or get on the end of it or hold it up, but we've got players around know, you've got Maca just off him, you've got John Bostock, you've got, you know, that these players, you're going to have Jodie Jones as well. These are players in that area that are going to be cute enough and quick enough to pick up on that first or second loose ball from the kick. And another thing that I've noticed as well is we don't really do clearances. If you think back to the traditional game where you'd get a defender or a keeper coming out his box and giving it a big hoof know, to clear the ball, we're so much more controlled than that. And again, I think a big part of that is down to Aidan Stone. He doesn't clear the ball, but when he does clear the ball, it isn't a clearance, it's still a pass, and it isn't something that's hoofed up into the air hoping it's in the right area to find the right person. Yes, the OD one or two might go astray, but it's always with some sort of intent, it's pretty low, driven straight to a target and it's just added that extra dynamic to Notts that actually improves both defensive options, but also the defensive options as well. And I think that's another big reason why we're showing a little bit more strength in defence and he's a big part of that. So, yeah, I was really impressed with Aidan and I'm looking to see how he can continue to develop his game this season as well because I think there's more to come.

Yeah, I echo your sentiments exactly. I think one of the things that the opposition have to take into account is that range that he's got and the fact that he can utilize that range quite intelligently. So it is about sometimes drawing the press in order to get the team onto him, in order then to send that slightly longer. But like you've said, it's not a hoof, it's not an absolute sort of smash down the field, but it's actually playing those kind of angled balls either onto McGoldrick's head for the flick on or maybe finding those channels for the wide players like Jodie Jones, who you've mentioned to be able to demonstrate that. So he's got that kind of range of passing style, range of passing ability that enables for Notts to kind of adapt different shapes off the ball and obviously it's about that communication. One of the things that I'm able to do in the family stand particularly is to be able to see that kind of communication between the forward line, obviously when they're shooting towards the family stand and also sort of like being able to see it from behind. Aidan Stone in quite an unrestricted view and there is that kind of constant back. And know McCauley Langstaff is constantly communicating with Stone about where he wants the ball or how he wants the ball. And like I say so we can't discount particularly the modern goalkeeper and the role that they play in attacking buildups. And obviously we know and of course we could go all the way through the team but we know that if he opts for that short ball there's the quality throughout the side that allows them to obviously make the right and progressive choices. And like I say, I think that was the quite nice thing about the Salford game, was we were up against a side with very similar expectations and routines and standpoints and morals, I suppose footballing morals. They were able to do that and yet Notts were able to get the better of them in that sort of battle, as well as, obviously, the results that we've had previously, where it's very much attack versus defence. Right, moving forward then and thinking about our next opposition, forrest Green rich, you've had a little look at the stats and some of the things that we can expect. Obviously we've had a good conversation about Salford and the challenge that that was and obviously how fantastic it was for nots to overcome them. What are some of the things that we can expect from Forest Green and what are some of the things that we could be doing to perhaps overcome some of those threats?

Well, interestingly. Yeah. They've not had the best start to the season, and I think they were up there as many fans sort of favorites is probably the wrong word, but most likely to be struggling this season. And it certainly looks that way, but I think they're in a bit of a false position when we're looking at the data. The one thing about them is there's a few things firstly, David Horseman, he appears to like a very rigid flat back four in a four four two. He's not budged from that at all so far this season but what he does do is he moves the ball quickly. They score very highly in many of the passing stats, particularly passing rate for example. I think they're second in the league for passing rate so that's how quickly a number of passes they make when they're making their advanced aggressive forays into the final third, et cetera. So that's something to be wary of. And as well as the passing rate, they're actually up there, they're right up there in the top one, basically as in first for smart passes. So they do create good chances. And again, that's confirmed with their Xg data because they're actually scored zero point 75 goals a game in the league so far this season. But their Xg is right up at 1.77. So they are getting into some really good high value goal scoring positions but they're just not taking those chances at the moment. And I think that's something that we're going to have to be very careful of. They don't take loads of possession but when they do they like to move the ball quickly to feet so not too dissimilar to Notts in that respect. And interestingly, the good matches that they've had this season have all come away from home as well. They've done nothing at home, it's all been on the, you know, maybe there's an issue, I think we were talking earlier, Colin, about them having some sort of anxiety when they're playing at home and maybe that's impacting on their performance. So they're going to come to Notts. And as every club does when they come to know, they try to give us a good game. And I don't see that being any different with them this weekend. But I do think that that rigidity of that back four and the four four two formation is going to be easy for us to counter, to smother and to play around. I really do. So I'm quite confident of us having a good day on Saturday.

Yeah, you make some really interesting points to be honest. And I think one of the things that I was thinking, listening to you was there is a danger of Notts. Fans going down to Medellin, seeing the league position, knowing the sort of season that they'd had previously and thinking that this is a team very much down on its look, and we're just going to add to those problems at some point, as the Xg demonstrates, as well as some of those kind of outstanding KPIs that we've just talked about. They're going to come to fruition against somebody. Obviously, as Notts fans, we hope it isn't going to be us, but I think it would be arrogant of us to just assume that that isn't going to be the case. Let's be honest. They're coming to a stadium that's got a great atmosphere, which, when you're down on your look and you're not particularly enjoying your football, as I'm sure Forest Green players and the fans probably are in that situation at the moment, you come to a really great atmosphere, an absolute carpet of a pitch to play, a style that quite clearly is still working, even though it's not necessarily coming to fruition. But they really are being able to establish those things. There is a fear, I suppose an anxiety to use that word again, that this could be the moment where they start to find some momentum and things start to click. One of the things that I do think you're absolutely right plays to our strength is that tactical rigidity, obviously, we know Luke Williams and the rest of the Notts back room team how proactive they are, how aware they are of the opposition and finding, and we've used that word already about Versatility finding versatile solutions to get round some of those threats. I think that makes it slightly easier when you've got such a repetitive shape to be able to find those gaps and to be able to find those moments through. And so obviously we're both sat here hoping that Notts are going to be able to expose that and be able to use that. But there is that warning that at some point somebody's going to get a beating from Forest Green. Somebody is going to get at the end of all these individual units of quite outstanding elements of their play are going to come together and we're going to see a resurgence because I don't think they're quite as bad as the league position demonstrates. So that brings me quite neatly onto predictions. Now, I'm obviously waiting with Beta breath here because there's been, should we say, a bit of a pattern developing. So to reuse that word anxiety again, I am a little bit nervous about where this is going to go because we know what has worked. But obviously we've also talked with some confidence about the Forest Green side that we're going to be watching at Medalane and hoping, obviously, for not to result. But Rich, where do you see this going?

Well, generally, you know, me, I'm normally on the fence a little bit and like to go play safe, go for the draw. I think one thing I'm interested in seeing, assuming he plays at the weekend, is obviously up front for them. They've got Troy Deani. He's 35, so he's still got some legs in him, I suppose. And that's something that we're going to have to a little bit careful of. But I'm going to put the kibosh on it because I'm quite positive and confident of a good result this weekend. So much so that I think we're on the verge of giving somebody a really good spanking. And I think it could be this weekend, I think, with Jody Jones back. Okay, Aaron, the main is out, but Sam Austin will fill that void. Absolutely no problem at all for us. He'll work tremendously hard to achieve everything that we need to achieve if he runs himself into the ground and there's 20 minutes to go and we still need that spark up there, hopefully, if we've got a fully fit tar on the bench as well. Toby, then again, another great option there. I just think we're going to be too much for them, really confident and I'm going to go for three nil to Notts.

Wow. You've heard it here first. And also, you've given me a massive dilemma as well, because as you and I know, and as some people have seen when I've put it out on Twitter, I'm very much a man of routine. So I was expecting you to go for a draw. And now I've immediately been a little bit wobbled by this. And as I am, and I don't mind admitting this is almost like a little bit of a counseling session on one of Notts's worst seasons. It was the one where Casper was in goal for Berry and we needed to win for about three months. I had the same Boots meal deal in order and we kept our form going in those last few months and obviously went to safety. It was chicken and tomato and basil, I seem to remember from Boots. Can't even look at it now, but in the same place for three months. Keep that going. I'm also still high five in the statue of Jimmy and Jack. Every home game did that before we left for Wembley as well. So it would probably then be no surprise to say that I'm going to have to predict the draw, just because I feel that there is a serious threat if someone on this podcast doesn't predict a draw. But I also feel sitting on the fence or looking at this sort of from a remote position, there is still quality in this forest green side and it may click at medalane. Given the like, we've know their higher stakes of confidence, being able to play away from home. They do play a passing style. Medalane is a fantastic environment to be playing that probably we are a big scout now. I think we've proven that already. I think the first game of the season we were there to be got at and to be put in our place, so to speak. But since know, we've definitely won quite a few know outside of the club and come to the attention. I noticed, for example, Luke Williams being a focus of coaches voice, they've done a little piece about him today. So thinking about it from their point of view and thinking about some of those still standout features, despite where they are, there is a chance that they get something in medleying. Obviously I hope not, but just because I'm worried what will happen if someone doesn't predict a draw on this podcast. I'm going to go for a draw, I'm going to go for one. One. We haven't been able to get Tom's predictions. Maybe he's going to send them through some sort of mystic signal, maybe a lightning bolt, maybe something's going to turn up, maybe Voldemort, I don't know. But hopefully Tom, if you're out there and you're able to get to the game, or maybe you've switched sports now to flying broomsticks and all that sort of stuff, who knows? But like I say, hopefully he's having a great time and able to join us on the next podcast and hopefully we're able to celebrate. Another three points for Notts.