AFC Fylde 1 - 2 Notts County
Williams 18' Baldewijn 13'
Long 76'
First National League away win of this decade and second league double.
For some reason the rest of the footballing statistics world decided this game didn't exist so I'm currently missing some data until I can watch the full highlights.
Notts' PPG has increased slightly again to 1.54 and now sees a season total prediction of just under 72 points, 3 points adrift of the 75 point target.
6th Place was the best Notts could hope for with a win last night and thanks to results elsewhere that is exactly what they got.
Points needed for third place has now dropped to 76 points and Barrow are still predicted to finish first on 89 points although Harrogate could give them a good run for their money and will be hoping we do them a favour on saturday.
Current PPG for 7th has dropped to 67 points as teams around us continue to drop points.
We are now beginning to see a steady average top 7 position being maintained which considering the slow and inconsistent start to the season is a positive.
Below are results trackers for both home and away. The win at Fylde was much needed and helps to improve the away tracker a bit.
22 Points on the road compared to 32 points gained at Meadow Lane. Away goal difference is into positive numbers again and PPG has risen to 1.29 which is back above the current league average for away games.
Notts back up to 6th which remains slightly above their average for the last 12 games. Average for the season as a whole is still hovering around 11th.
Season stats after this weekend's matches vs the NL average.
Goals scored/conceded by time segment.
Moving onto player stats and minutes played all competitions for the season. Wes Thomas was back in the starting line up and tactical changes by Neal Ardley saw Jim O'Brien, Kristian Dennis and Scott Wilson all get more game time.
A total of 33 players have seen some minutes on the pitch for Notts so far this season.
Goal involvement by minutes played updated below with Adam Long now getting in on the act and is the 21st player to be directly involved in a goal for Notts for the season so far.
Kyle Wootton continues to be the clubs top goal contributor with 16 goals and 4 assists in all competitions. Enzio bagged his 9th goal of the season last night and Jim O'Brien picked up another assist.
Kristian Dennis remains the most efficient striker taking 142 mins to score a goal or a goal every 1.58 games.
Unfortunately due to a lack of available data I am unable to update attacking and defending efficiency graphs at this time.
moving on to our regular look at how the table could pan out over the remaining games and things continue to look relatively positive for Notts, however there are now 13 teams realistically competing for promotion/play off spot.
Just to explain again, I run a calculation that takes a teams points and expected goal difference for the season so far and overlay it with the same stats for the last 10 games. This then gives a value that suggests the maximum and minimum points and goal difference they can expect to have at the end of the season.
Of course it is still only predictive but at this stage of the season the values calculated do hold some weight and continue to throw up some interesting results.
Barrow continue to look favourites for the title but they are currently being pushed hard by Harrogate who have the best last 10 game form in the league with 8 wins and just one defeat in that period.
Halifax have gone on a bit of a run and now look good value for a play off spot.
Yeovil's form had dropped significantly but a win in their last game has halted the slide a little and should still have enough to secure a place in the play off's, Likewise Boreham Wood and Notts.
That leaves 7 teams currently fighting it out for the last play off spot. Barnet with games in hand and Dover are looking best bets at the moment and although Hartlepool, Solihull and Stockport have rallied slightly over recent weeks they will need to go on very good runs to get in the top 7.
The calculations would also suggest Woking and Bromley will struggle to make it although Woking are currently on an upward trajectory.
Of course all it takes is a team to go on an amazing uncharacteristic run or likewise to go on an uncharacteristically bad run and the above changes again but for now these results do provide some insight into how teams should perform given season and recent form.
From a Notts perspective the play off target remains in sight and to be fair has been for a couple of months now, fingers crossed that continues.
As always thanks for reading. In post comments and social media shares are very much appreciated and while you are here why not start a conversation in the site forum, I haven't plugged the forum much because I'm aware there are others people like to use but I still feel there is room for another so please don't be shy!
Richard.
Cover pic AFC Fylde