Thirteen match days into the National League season and it has already delivered on so many levels. Dagenham do goals, at both ends, Tshimanga troubles for Chesterfield, Dorking surprises and a striker on fire.
In this report we will cast a data led eye over every club, the managers and the players, present our NL team of the season so far and look ahead to the next dozen or so games and how the stats see things panning out.
Before we dive in, a bit of housekeeping. Firstly all data used is from Wyscout so if you see anything that doesn't add up please let us know.
Secondly, there are approximately 600 players at clubs in the National League. With this in mind we have restricted the data to players with 500 minutes or more so far. This will mean that some players that are starting to post decent stats might not be featured in this report, but will hopefully show up in future reports.
Aldershot Town
The general consensus around the league is that Aldershot’s performances have actually been better than their results and league position show, but the stats indicate otherwise.
Aldershot are currently 5th highest for xG against, with 23.19 goals expected to be conceded, 1.19 more than they have actually conceded. Aldershot also have the 5th lowest xG, with just 14.46, 2.54 less than they actually have, suggesting they are actually doing better than they should be in terms of goals scored and goals conceded. Therefore, it’s hardly a surprise that they are struggling down in the relegation zone, and it looks as though things might get worse for them.
The Shots also barely see the ball; they have recorded the second lowest average possession, seeing just 42.6% of the ball. Despite not having much of the ball they have recorded 141 shots, the 15th most in the league, so they are at least threatening the goal somewhat.
Boss Mark Molesley is a manager who is highly rated, but one who may be disappointed with his sides league position. Aldershot are a side who have used the loan market well, and Molesley has combined technical midfielders with a powerful attack. Molesley has also managed his squad well, rotating his forward line, and also maximising the output of Inih Effiong, playing to the forward’s strengths, gaining a return of 4 goals so far.
In terms of style they see very little of the ball, but in that regard Molesley could be seen as somewhat of an astute tactician; he often recognises his side will be 2nd best going into a game and looks to set them up accordingly.
Aldershot’s star men in front of goal are Inih Effiong and Justin Amaluzor, who have 4 and goals each. This is 52.9% of Aldershot’s goals, highlighting how key the pair are to the Shots’ output.
Effiong is a big strong target man, whilst Amaluzor is a quick powerful right winger, who loves to cut inside on his left foot. He’s a fantastic striker of the ball and the vast majority of his goals this season have been strikes from range.
Young keeper Luca Ashby-Hammond has also acquitted himself in goal, and having faced 81 shots, 2nd most in the league, he’s had plenty of chance to showcase his talents. He has a tidy save percentage of 72.84% and for his first season in senior men’s football he’s done well.
Altrincham
Altrincham are a side that up until 4 games ago hadn’t even won a game, but now find themselves in 16th place, showing how a few good results can change fortunes drastically in this division. However, despite the poor run, the good results were always bound to come when looking at the stats.
The Robins have committed to playing their brand of football, and rank very highly in passing stats as a result. They’ve played the 8th highest amount of passes, 4855, and also the 3rd most amount of progressive runs, 227, 1 less than leaders Notts Co. They’ve also had the 9th highest possession, 51.6%, and the 9th highest xG in the league. The biggest stat that suggests they’ve performed better than results is their xG against. They’ve only been expected to concede 15.38 when they’ve actually let in 24. This suggests that in the long run Altrincham will have a much better defence, and in turn much better results.
All of these stats point to Altrincham doing a lot better than they have, so you’d expect their results to continue to see them rise up the table, rather than back into the relegation zone where they were stranded earlier in the season.
Phil Parkinson (the Altrincham one not the Wrexham one) deserves a huge amount of credit for sticking to his guns and playing his style, despite results not going his sides way for the first 9 games. Many managers would have panicked, but the highly rated 41 year old maintained composure, and didn’t go back to the drawing board. He stuck with his favoured 4-2-3-1, a system he recruited with in mind during the summer, and his style sees his side still record 51.6% possession, a high number for a side with Altrincham’s resources.
Parkinson’s tactics also allow him to get the best out of mercurial talent Ryan Colclough, who is once again having an impressive season. Parkinson has a brilliant track record, and seems to have momentum heading into the next quarter.
Altrincham’s key performers have undoubtedly been defender Toby Mullarkey, who would get into most sides, and attacker Ryan Colclough, who tops the charts in various offensive statistics.
Colclough attempts 8.84 dribbles per 90, the most in the league. He is also involved in the most successful attacking actions, 7.64, showing his ability going forward and already has 3 goals and 4 assists, an impressive tally for a forward in a side who until recently were struggling. Colclough’s overall class and quality has been evident this season.
At the other end of the pitch defender Toby Mullarkey has been a key figure, hardly a surprise to those who followed the transfer sagas that surrounded him in the summer. A strong defender, Mullarkey is involved in 7.77 successful defensive actions per 90 and wins a very commendable 67.69% of his defensive duels, both of which show his defensive capabilities.
Mullarkey is a quality operator with the ball too, as shown by his 3.05 progressive runs per 90, a number that ranks him 13th in the entire division. Clearly Mullarkey is good at bringing the ball out of defence, and his ball carrying skills are essential to the way Altrincham like to play.
Barnet
The Bees started the season extremely strongly, but in recent weeks they have struggled, especially defensively. They’ve conceded 20 in their last 4 games, more than they conceded in their first 9 games combined.
Dean Brennan’s firm approach to the game seems to have divided opinion, but a positive result at home to struggling Maidstone and scoring 5 goals away to Wrexham could prove to be a catalyst to bringing them back into some sort of form.
In terms of stats nothing jumps out massively, other than that Barnet have conceded the 4th most shots, 195, and also have the 4th most yellow cards, 27, showing poor discipline. They’ve also now conceded the most goals after their 7-5 defeat to Wrexham, so going into the next quarter they really need to tighten up at the back.
The personnel they have at their disposal, especially those they recruited in the summer, are impressive on paper, but the organisation at the back is worrying. They look a shambles defensively and something has to change moving forward.
A manager who certainly divides opinion, Dean Brennan’s bizarre post match interview after a 5-0 defeat to York certainly captured the imagination. His boisterous handling of the media is perhaps reflective of his management style, but the Barnet players know that their standards aren’t high enough, and Brennan’s honesty does at least let the players know where they stand.
He’s also managed to get the best out of forward Nicke Kabamba, who came to the Hive as a striker who only scored 3 times last season, but one who now has 9 goals to his name already. The Irish manager seems to be able to get responses from his players, so he’s doing well in that regard. Time will tell if he is too harsh, or if he’s got it just right.
21 year old midfielder Ryan De Havilland has had a breakout year after his midfield partner Ephron Mason-Clark was sold to Peterborough after he himself had a strong start to the season. Previously mentioned Nicke Kabamba is Barnet’s top scorer with 9 goals, 3 times the amount he scored last season already. This tally included a highlight reel finish, a deft chip over the keeper against Yeovil and a brilliant low driven finish against Wrexham. He has 4 braces this season, so needs to work on scoring more consistently, but he is currently the league’s 4th top scorer.
Boreham Wood
Until Tuesday night the Wood were very much considered the 4th best side in the league; they had lost just once all season, a shock home loss to Aldershot, and looked like an outside chance for a title challenge. However, that quickly changed when they welcomed Bromley, once again showing how quickly things can change in this division. The pendulum once again swung back the way of the Wood who actually now sit 3rd after a very impressive win away at Wealdstone.
They have lost only 2 games, and have 25 points, a very impressive tally. The Wood have played the 3rd highest amount of through passes, something which is certainly influenced by new personnel. The data suggests they are right where we would expect them to be; they have an xG of 19.23, and have scored 20, and they have conceded 12 from an xG against of 14.39. Whilst they are conceding slightly fewer than expected, and have the 3rd best defence in the league as a result, the data does suggest that they should have no issues keeping this pace, and a playoff berth should be confirmed come the end of the season.
A coach our own Tom Williams has suggested for EFL jobs recently, Luke Garrard is one of the youngest coaches in the league, but also one of the most impressive. Renowned for getting his side to be resolute in defence, the 37 year old has done that again this season, with his side conceding just 12 goals in the opening 13, 3rd least in the league.
In the past the Wood have been guilty of not possessing enough quality in the final third, but this is something the young coach has rectified this summer. Arguably his 2 star performers in the final third were brought in this summer, top scorer Lee Ndlovu and chief creator Zak Brunt. Despite the new attacking signings, Garrard has stuck to his guns, and his side have recorded the 4th most long passes, 825. They are also still as aggressive as ever; they are joint 2nd for most red cards in the league (2).
Zak Brunt was signed in the summer on loan after a somewhat underwhelming loan spell at Notts County, but manager Garrard has played him in a more familiar advanced role, allowing the 20 year old to flourish.
Brunt has played 12 smart passes, the 4th most in the league, showing he is a progressive midfielder, one who likes to create.
Lee Ndlovu has been a talismanic figure for the Wood, and despite playing just 776 minutes he has scored 5 goals. This means he averages 0.58 goals per 90, 13th highest in the league. At the other end of the pitch Femi Ilesanmi has won 73.74% of his defensive duels and also records 12.53 successful defensive actions per 90, the 7th most in the league.
In goal Nathan Ashmore has arguably been the finest keeper in the league, and the 100kg shot stopper has prevented 3.12 goals, the 3rd most in the league. He also has the 4th highest save percentage of any keeper, 78.85%, showing the good work he is doing between the sticks.
Bromley
A side who have been fascinating from a statistical point of view all season, and one who have finally got it clicking on the pitch, Bromley are looking like real playoff contenders.
With the 3rd highest xG in the league, and 8th lowest xG against, Bromley have every right to be up there in the promotion hunt. They are also playing fairly closely to their xG Expected goals); their xG against is 14.58, and they have conceded 13, whilst with xG for there is a slightly larger gap, scoring just 20 from an xG of 24.94. This suggests performances could be even higher from Bromley, a good sign for Andy Woodman’s side.
Bromley have also kept a divisional high 7 clean sheets, showing how resolute they can be in defence. If they can continue to get front man Adam Marriott amongst the goals there is no reason why they cannot finish the second quarter still inside the playoffs.
Andy Woodman is a very highly rated coach, and the first quarter of this season shows why. His side have kept 7 clean sheets, the most in the league, showing his 5 at the back system works extremely well. It’s not a defensive system though, as the wing backs push on into dangerous areas; right wing back Harry Forster has completed the most key passes of any player in the league (15).
Woodman also makes great use of set pieces, especially targeting 6' 6" centre back Omar Sowunmi, who already has 4 goals this season. Woodman has also worked out that his 2 best strikers can play alongside each other inside the system, so he has had a very successful first quarter.
The key men for Bromley have undoubtedly been wing back Harry Forster, who is their main creative outlet, towering centre half Omar Sowunmi, as well as striker Adam Marriott, who has fired in 6 goals so far this season.
Forster has been able to get up and down the right hand side to great effect, creating chances in the final third successfully. He already has 3 assists to his name, and you’d expect this figure to rise as the season progresses.
Sowunmi has won 66.67% of his defensive duels, but it’s in the air he proves the biggest menace, firing in 4 goals, making him Bromley’s second top scorer.
Adam Marriott is as close to a pure finisher as you will see at this level; he has 6 goals from just 17 shots, and he has the highest shot accuracy of any player with more than 10 shots, with 76.47% of his shots finding the target, a simply insane number.
Chesterfield
For the first 10 games the Spireites were undefeated, but 3 back to back defeats, 2 at home, see them end the first quarter on a sour note.
The saga around Kabongo Tshimanga hasn’t helped, but this is a blow that has been softened by the emergence of Jeserun Uchegbulam.
Chesterfield have scored 25 goals, 5th highest in the league, and have the 5th highest xG, all this in spite of their star forward not always being available. However, they have out scored their xG by 4.89, a huge number suggesting they will begin to slow down in terms of scoring.
In terms of goals conceded Chesterfield’s defence is actually performing slightly worse than expected; they sit middle of the pack for goals conceded, 18, but they were only expected to let 14.51 in, suggesting they may see better defensive returns soon.
Paul Cook is probably the most high profile manager at the level, and the vast experience he has amassed has certainly paid off this season. He has played an attacking brand of football, switching between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3, utilising hood strength in depth in the forward areas. He’s also put together a midfield pairing in Ollie Banks and Darren Oldaker that looks like it could be the best in the league, a pair of passers who are imperious on their day.
Cook has come under criticism though for his reluctance to rotate his side, something which looks to have cost him in the last 3 games. Cook doesn’t like to change a winning side, but with games coming thick and fast in this league squad rotation is often essential.
As mentioned earlier, Chesterfield’s key men have been in midfield. The pair of Oldaker and Banks are top drawer, with the former completing 89.53% of his passes, 9th best in the league, and Banks completing 83.98%, 54th best. They completely control games from midfield, and add attacking threat too, with Oldaker in particular showing he has a huge future in the Football League.
Elsewhere the emergence of Jesurun Uchegbulam has been a joy to watch, a winger who plays with flair and freedom. A player who has been a surprise package this season.
A mention must also be given to Jeff King, who has arguably been the best right back in the league so far. King ranks 14th for crosses per 90, 4.47, 22nd for key passes, 6, and 14th for smart passes, 7. All of this whilst playing at right back in a back 4. He’s been superb.
Dagenham & Redbridge
The Daggers are the division's entertainers, and a side who are a nightmare to predict on a weekly basis. There have been 5 or more goals in each of their last 8 games, a period in which they scored 19 goals but let in 23 goals in that time too. Whilst it’s great value for money, it cannot be enjoyable if you are a Dagenham fan, especially when the statistical signs suggest things could get worse.
They’ve scored 23 goals this season, but only have an xG of 17.43, meaning they are out scoring what is expected by a lot. They have conceded 29 goals, the 3rd most in the league, but there are at least some good signs here, as their xG is lower at 24.61. Still, this is a high xG number, and is the 3rd highest in the league. Clearly the Daggers have a defensive issue, and their tactic of out scoring the opposition is fun for the neutrals, but doesn’t seem particularly sustainable.
Daggers boss Daryl McMahon is one of those rare managers that is backed unequivocally by the board despite the vast majority of the fan base calling for him to lose his job. It’s understandable from the fans point of view, as Dagenham have one of the biggest playing budgets in the league, but despite high investment currently sit in 11th place, which would mean they miss out on the playoffs yet again. And despite having one of the best front pairings in the league, McMahon seems unwilling to deviate from a system that he clearly doesn’t have the personnel for. The most bizarre example of this came against Notts County, where he opted to play 3 full backs at centre half. Even more bizarre is that he played a recognised central defender, Nikola Tavares, in central midfield, and it led to the Daggers conceding 5 on the day. They’ve conceded 4 or more on 5 occasions, so McMahon has to get them playing better defensively.
Perhaps unsurprisingly the stars of the show at Dagenham are strikers Junior Morias, Josh Walker and Paul McCallum. The trio have 15 goals between them, and without them you’d have to question where Dagenham would be in the league. All 3 rank in the top 36 players in terms of xG, so they are certainly getting the chances, which for the most part they are taking.
It’s at the other end of the pitch Dagenham struggle, something which may have been worse had it not been for keeper Elliot Justham. Justham has made 42 saves, 7th highest in the league, so things may have been far worse without the 32 year old stopper.
Dorking Wanderers
Potentially the surprise package of the opening quarter, new boys Dorking find themselves in 15th, despite conceding 30 goals, joint 2nd worst in the league. However, the Wanderers have only been outscored by 5 teams, 4 of which are inside the playoffs, so going forward at least they are particularly strong.
The signs are very mixed for Dorking going forward. They are conceding more than expected, 30 goals from an xG against of 26.41, suggesting they’ve been unlucky at the back, but they have scored 24, from an xG of 20.42, meaning that whilst they may get better defensively they should also expect a drop off in attack.
Manager, owner and just about everything else, Marc White has acquitted himself brilliantly for his first time at this level. Not only has he come across as extremely likeable, giving large amount of money to away supporters, but he’s also stuck to the tactical philosophy that has got Dorking this far in such a short period; attack attack attack. They currently rank 2nd for possession, with 58.6%, a huge number, showing his side are capable of dominating the ball. They’ve also scored a lot of goals, a testament to White’s playing style. The next challenge he faces is stopping them conceding so many.
The key man at Dorking so far is undoubtedly James McShane, an attacking midfielder who has scored 10 goals, the 3rd highest in the league. He has a very impressive goal conversion rate of 34.48%, and is also a capable provider, being accurate with 60% of his crosses.
At the other end of the pitch Dan Lincoln has been nothing short of brilliant since he returned to the side, and had he played in every game this season not only would Dorking be higher up but he would have an even stronger case for being keeper of the season so far. He has a massive save percentage of 80%, the 2nd highest in the league, and he has prevented 1.96 goals, the 5th highest, despite playing less minutes than the other keepers near the top. Clearly he is a quality keeper, and he is one to watch in the next quarter.
Eastleigh
Eastleigh are the closest thing in the league to ‘average’. They’ve won 5, drawn 4, lost 4, and scored 15 and let in 15, showing how even everything is across the board. They are scoring slightly less than expected, with an xG of 17.17, and also conceding more than expected, with an xG against of 12.13, suggesting that their fortunes should see a slight upturn in the next quarter. In fact, they actually have the 2nd lowest xG against in the league, a testament to the work they’ve done defensively this season. They currently sit 10th, and the stats suggest they will be in and around mid table all season, but a win over title contenders will give them confidence of potentially sneaking into the playoffs.
47 year old Lee Bradbury has done a good job since coming in as Eastleigh boss, and has looked to combine a solid defence with flair players in midfield. Despite having technical midfielders such as Jake Hesketh and Charlie Carter, Eastleigh only keep 45.6% of possession, and they play the 6th fewest passes in the league. However, they aren’t necessarily a long ball side; they only rank 12th for long passes, but this does make up 20.37% of their passes. Despite having very little of the ball they do get a lot of shots away; they rank 8th for shots, showing their game is all about being as efficient as possible.
One standout defender for Eastleigh this season has been Corey Panter, a 21 year old left footed defender who can play either at left back or as a central defender. He’s won 69.44% of his defensive duels, and his versatility has been vital this campaign. He also provides 2.62 shot assists per 90, more than any player in the entire league, showing his class going forward.
On the other side of defence Brennan Camp has been equally as impressive, if not more so, grabbing the winner against Chesterfield last time out. Camp wins slightly less of his defensive duels than Corey Panter, 65.71%, but he does complete 10.37 successful defensive actions per 90, a huge amount. In midfield Charlie Carter has been the star, scoring 2 and assisting another. Despite playing just 21.55 passes per 90, Carter attempts 0.7 through passes per 90, and a further 0.7 deep completions per 90. He’s also involved in 2.39 successful attacking actions per 90, so he’s certainly having a good season in attacking midfield.
Gateshead United
For a newly promoted side who have lost their two main strikers, Gateshead aren’t doing too badly. They currently sit 19th in the league, and whilst they have only lost 5 games, they’ve only won 2, meaning they are above the relegation places on goal difference alone. They’ve drawn 6 games, a total only beaten by Yeovil, and if Gateshead are to ensure safety this season they’re going to have to turn some of those draws into wins.
Gateshead have scored 16, and have an xG of 15.36, and conceded 20, with an xG against of 15.83, suggesting their attacking output is spot on, but defensively they have been unlucky. It’s good news for the Heed, who will still look to play attacking football, but have understandably taken time to adjust to the level. Expect entertaining football to continue up North.
38 year old Mike Williamson is one of the highest rated young coaches at this level, and for good reason. The former Premier League defender plays an attacking brand of football which got the Heed promoted with 99 goals last season, a style he will not compromise on this season. It’s seen them get some pretty impressive results too; they almost beat league leaders Notts County, before falling to a late own goal equaliser, and they also held Boreham Wood to a 1-1 draw too.
Williamson had to deal with losing top scorer Macaulay Langstaff, but he’s certainly made the right steps in doing so, putting more responsibility onto Adam Campbell and Paul Blackett, both of whom have 4 goals a piece. He looks to commit men forward, and has a fluid attack, one which is great to watch as a neutral.
Midfield maestro Greg Olley has certainly shown the National League what all the fuss is about, with his classy performances standing out in a Gateshead shirt this season. He’s provided 2.07 shot assists per 90, the 4th highest in the league, showing his class in creativity.
He, alongside teammate Adam Campbell, has created plenty of chances, with both playing 13 smart passes each; only Ruben Rodrigues has played more than these two.
Owen Bailey has been strong defensively from midfield, winning 74.73% of his defensive duels. Even more impressively is the fact he’s involved in 11.71 successful defensive actions per 90, something which ranks him 16th in the whole league.
FC Halifax Town
Whilst the Shaymen lost key players in the summer they are still probably the leagues biggest underachievers. They finished 4th last year, when arguably they should have finished higher, but this season they will be focusing on avoiding a relegation scrap.
A shock win on Tuesday night over high flying York saw them lift themselves out of the relegation places, but the fact remains that they have only scored 8 goals, the fewest in the league.
The news is good for Halifax fans though, as their xG is 15.79, a top 11 xG, yet have only scored 9; the Shaymen cannot misfire that much for much longer. They’ve let in 20, when their xG against is just 15.13, so you should expect to see Halifax rise up the table over the coming weeks.
Chris Millington was the number 2 under former boss Pete Wild, and this is his first gig as the top man, so it’s no surprise that there are teething problems. He’s tried to keep the style consistent, and looked for like for like replacements in the transfer market for the outgoing stars they lost over the summer.
Halifax have really invested heavily, and have backed Millington, so they may be disappointed at the results reaped so far. The jury is still out as to whether he is suitable to be the main man, but he certainly bought himself some more time with the win over York, although dropping points late on to Maidstone who had lost 4 straight must be a bit of a kick in the teeth.
It’s hard to pick a star man for Halifax, but Kian Spence has probably won the most plaudits from the Shaymen support. Spence is involved in 11.74 successful defensive actions per 90, something which ranks him 15th in the league. He’s won 69.41% of his defensive duels, a decent figure for a central midfielder, especially one who is also active going forward, as shown by his 2 assists and 1 goal. He’s also quite a positive player; of his 37.28 passes per 90 10.47 are played forward, meaning he plays a forward pass 28% of the time, a very decent figure.
Mani Dieseruvwe up front has been decent, scoring 4 so far from an xG of 4.03, suggesting he is exactly on course at this point. He also has a really impressive 57.52% shot accuracy rate, and with just 1.94 shots per 90 he’s quite an economical shooter. If Halifax can get the big forward more involved he may have more to show for himself in the way of goals.
Maidenhead United
The side that proves everyone wrong time and time again, a more youthful Maidenhead than we are usually accustomed to have been performing above expectations yet again.
Maidenhead currently sit 13th, and have drawn only 2 games, joint fewest in the division. They have finished the first quarter particularly strongly, winning 3 in 5 games, including wins over Woking and Chesterfield, both of whom currently sit in the top 8. Maidenhead may even feel they could be better off, as their xG of 16.63 is higher than their actual goal return of 13. They are much closer in terms of xG against, 15.9 to an actual conceded total of 16, but the signs suggest Maidenhead are in a very healthy position heading into the next stage of the season, and that more goals may come their way.
Alan Devonshire might be one of the oldest managers in the league, but he’s also one of the most effective. He recruited well in the summer, brining in defenders such as Zico Asare and Kpekawa who suit his system perfectly, and his smash and grab style has reaped its rewards. They have the lowest average possession in the league with just 40.9%, yet this doesn’t stop them from hurting the opposition. Devonshire favours a direct approach, and whilst it may not be the most glamorous it certainly works for Maidenhead. He’s also a fantastic motivator; they’ve already taken 3 big scalps, and will be up for every game they are in.
Maidenhead’s young defence is the real stand out of their season, with Sam Beckwith, Zico Asare and Coke Kpekawa performing admirably, with the first 2 being 21 or under. Beckwith in particular has been a highlight, acquitting himself as one of the best left backs in the league. He’s won 70.83% of his defensive duels, so his return to fitness will be a big boost for the Magpies.
Emile Acquah is their top scorer, but with just 3 goals it’s clear that they look to spread the goals around; in fact they have 10 different goal scorers, the 3rd most in the league behind Wrexham and Chesterfield, so it’s very much a collective effort rather than any stand out individuals.
Maidstone United
They might be newcomers to the division, but Maidstone will be disappointed to have conceded the second most goals in the first quarter, shipping 30 goals in 13 games.
It seemed to have started pretty well for the Stones, but in their last 7 games they have lost 5 and drawn 2, meaning the second half of the first quarter was absolutely dire. They have scored 8 goals in that time, but also conceded 18, so it’s no surprise they now sit in the relegation zone. Their xG against is 24.92, a lot lower than their actual conceded total of 29, but it’s still the 3rd highest xG against in the league, something that needs to change if they are to stay clear of the drop.
Hakan Heyrettin is a highly rated manager, and for good reason. He won the league with Maidstone last season, seeing off strong competition in Dorking and Ebbsfleet, but this season it’s not quite going to plan for the Stones boss. In fairness he is without star forward Joan Luque, who is still out with injury, but he has struggled to get his side scoring.
Jack Barham and James Alabi have just 5 goals between them, and whilst his side had massive physical advantages last season they don’t seem to have translated as well this time round. He still has time, but he needs to work out where to improve his side in this next quarter.
Regan Booty has had the most impressive stats of any Stones player in the first quarter. The left footed midfielder has completed more deep completions than any other player, 32, and he’s also played 6 smart passes, and 6 key passes, both large totals. He’s clearly got quality, something he’s been able to show so far this season, especially in a side that are struggling somewhat.
Notts County
League leaders Notts County have had a very strong opening quarter. They are the only side to lose 1 game, have scored the second most goals and of course most importantly have the most points.
They top the charts for almost all passing statistics, a byproduct of their possession based style, and they average 63.7% possession, 5.1% more than any other side. They have the highest xG total, 26, but this is still 5 lower than their actual output, suggesting they may slow down with scoring. Their xG against is 16.67, 3.37 higher than the 13 they have conceded, again suggesting they may start to concede more. However, in Macaulay Langstaff they certainly have the X Factor; 15 goals in the opening 13 games is unbelievable.
To say this is only Luke Williams’ 2nd job as the top man, he is certainly doing a very impressive job. He has built upon the style left by Forest Green Rovers head coach Ian Burchnall, but added intensity and increased pressing, making Notts a much more ruthless outfit. He’s also converted Macaulay Langstaff from a forward who runs the channels to one who poaches and scores predatory types of goals. His rapport with the fans has made him an instant hit, and whilst he got it wrong at Dorking he is clearly learning a lot from his time in the National League.
You can’t talk about Notts County without mentioning Macaulay Langstaff at the moment. 15 goals in 13 games, the top scorer in the whole country, and a striker the likes of which the National League are lucky to have.
His strike partner Cedwyn Scott has been brilliant too, playing a slightly more reserved role but still being ruthless in front of goal; he has hit the target with 66.67% of his shots, the second highest of any player who has taken more than 10 shots. Other key performers include the super talented Ruben Rodrigues, who has played 23 smart passes, almost double that of second place (several players sit on 13), and skipper Kyle Cameron, who has led the defensive line particularly well, winning 75.47% of his defensive duels, a huge number.
Oldham Athletic
Dropping down from League 2 is always tough, but we don’t think Latics fans realised quite how tough the drop would be. They currently sit 18th, and look way off the pace of returning to the Football League at the first time of asking.
The board clearly felt the same way, as they parted ways with John Sheridan, and brought in former Everton coach David Unsworth. Oldham actually have the lowest xG in the whole league,10.87, 3.13 lower than the amount they have scored. They’ve conceded 22, but only have an xG against of 18.65, so that is a positive at least, and going into the next quarter they have a new manager with fresh ideas, one who they will hope brings better results.
David Unsworth has only been in the job for 4 games, so there isn’t a great deal to comment on about the former Everton boss. In that time he has lost 2 and drawn 2, but to be fair to Unsworth the 2 losses came against sides in the playoffs, and the loss against Wrexham was down to 2 extremely late goals. An intriguing manager with good links to youth systems in the Premier League, the next quarter will be vital for Unsworth. The early signs are that he is taking a little longer to adapt to the level than Oldham would have hoped.
Oldham have struggled for goals, scoring just 14, but their best performer in the final third has to be Ben Tollitt. He has 4 goals in 13 games, and he hits the target with 58.33% of his shots. When you compare this to the leading goalscorer, Langstaff, it looks very impressive; Langstaff only has 0.49% better accuracy, with 58.82% of his shots hitting the target. Tollitt is also a very economical shooter, taking just 1.9 shots per 90, the 66th highest in the league. Therefore he has been particularly potent in front of goal, and Oldham should look to get him more involved. To be fair to Hallam Hope, he was scoring goals before he suffered an injury in an off the field incident after the Chesterfield game. He had 3 goals in 7 games, and looked to be hitting form.
Scunthorpe United
The other side to have dropped down from League 2, Scunthorpe looked destined for relegation under Keith Hill, but in the 7 games since his departure they have only lost 1 game.
However, they’ve only won 1 game in that period, but they’ve certainly stopped the rot, as they lost 5 of their opening 6. They’ve scored 19 from an xG of 16.75, so going forward they aren’t struggling at all. They have conceded 26, despite having only an xG against of 18.66, so Scunthorpe fans should be fairly optimistic. They aren’t going to set the league alight but they could get out of the relegation zone.
Tony Daws may only be the interim boss but he certainly has a good case to get the job on a permanent basis. He lost his first game in charge, but since he’s drawn 5 and won 1, an unbeaten run which has seen Scunthorpe climb off the bottom of the table. There is a renewed sense of belief in the Iron players, and they certainly have more fight about them than they did earlier in the season. Daws deserves massive credit and also the chance to show what he can do over the next quarter.
Despite playing in a side who are 2nd bottom, Joe Nuttall has 7 goals in 13 games, a very good return. His xG is 5.66, so he is scoring similarly to expected, a good sign for things to come for the 25 year old striker. The loan signing of 19 year old Rob Apter has completely transformed Scunthorpe’s fortunes. The 19 year old has 2 goals and 4 assists in 7 games, an incredible return for a young player. He works hard and has massive impacts on games, so is a key player for Scunthorpe.
Solihull Moors
The biggest question Solihull were always going to face was how big would the playoff hangover be? With 22 points meaning they sit in 6th place you’d have to say the hangover isn’t particularly large, especially when you consider they’ve scored 27 goals, the 3rd most in the league.
They have a potent attack, and have also gained points with late goals throughout the season. They’ve scored 5 goals in stoppage time, and also have an 85th minute winner, so Solihull certainly maintain their threat throughout a game. Solihull’s xG is 21.74, which they’ve outscored by 5.26, a huge amount. They have also outperformed their xG against, 18.72 to an actual conceded figure of 16. This suggests that whilst they’ve made a good start, they might dip off slightly in the next quarter, something evidenced by a poor 1-0 loss to Yeovil last time out.
Neal Ardley is certainly an attacking manager, and his strength this season has been managing the minutes of the plethora of attacking talent at his disposal, as well as getting the best out of his front 4. Ardley’s side are on the front foot the vast majority of the time, retaining 56.3% of possession on average, the 3rd most in the league. He’s also had to display resilience following another playoff final defeat, and for the most part Ardley has, ensuring his side are firmly in the playoff hunt. Whilst the title might seem like a bridge too far for Solihull, Ardley may get another crack at the playoffs if they continue in this way.
The 4 star men for Solihull are undoubtedly their attacking quarter of Joe Sbarra, Alex Reid, Josh Kelly and Andrew Dallas. Between them they have 20 goals, a number larger than the majority of sides in the division as a whole. Each possess individual skill sets and compliment one another brilliantly, already establishing strong links making their forward play terrific to watch.
A mention must also be given to young Louie Moulden in goal, who has been particularly strong deputising for the injured Ryan Boot in goal. Moulden is on loan from Wolves, and has made 41 saves this season, 9th most in the league. Ardley will have a selection headache when Boot returns to fitness.
Southend
The Shrimpers have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 4, leaving them in mid table, which will be disappointing to them considering their ambitions. To be fair to the Seasiders, in their last 5 they have won 2 and drawn 3, including an impressive win away to Wealdstone, but results like a loss at home to bottom club Torquay are always bound to hold a side back.
They’ve scored just 12 goals despite having an xG of 18.43, and they’ve actually conceded more than expected too, 11 goals despite having an xG against of just 10.76. In fact, Southend have the lowest xG against in the whole league. They are clearly underperforming right now, so it shouldn’t be long until this rectifies itself, and we see more Southend goals and as a result see them up towards the end of the table they are expecting to be at.
They are clearly struggling in front of goal, having scored the 3rd least in the league, and they seemed to have rectified this with the loan signing of Marcus Dackers, who has 3 goals in 6 games. However, due to off the pitch issues they now face a transfer embargo, and will be unable to renew the 19 year old’s loan at the end of the month.
Kevin Maher is a coach who has a wealth of riches at his disposal, but for whatever reason hasn’t quite got it clicking so far this season. He ended the first quarter strong though, and so Southend fans should be optimistic and get behind their coach.
They’ve kept 53.7% of the ball on average, 7th highest, and the signs are definitely there for progress; they’re in a much better position than they were last season to go ahead and push forward into the next stage of the season. Their xG under performance can only be an encouraging sign for Maher; they’re making the chances, and it will click into place eventually.
Dan Mooney sticks out whenever you talk about Southend, a fantastic footballer full of flair and great to watch. Mooney provides 2.32 shot assists per 90, the 2nd most in the whole division, and with 3 assists already to his name it’s clear to see he’s one of the divisions best providers. Mooney also only has 1 goal from an xG of 2.42, so whilst he is currently underperforming in front of goal the signs are that the goals should start coming sooner rather than later. He also makes 2.52 progressive runs per 90, ranking him 24th in the whole league, showing his ball carrying credentials.
Since the arrival of 21 year old defender Kacper Lopata, a Polish u21 international who returned for his second stint at Roots Hall, Southend have been far sturdier defensively. Lopata records 9.31 successful defensive actions per 90, and wins a decent 65.52% of his defensive duels. Perhaps most impressive is the fact that since Lopata arrived Southend have lost just 1 game, the first one Lopata played in, a 3-2 loss against Chesterfield.
In the other 5 games he has helped his side keep 3 clean sheets, and in those 5 games they have conceded just twice, losing a total of zero games. Clearly he’s made a real impact upon their defensive solidity. As previously mentioned, young Marcus Dackers has had an instant impact upon Southend’s side. He has 4 goal contributions in 6 games, showing his quality, and for a 19 year old it’s an immense return. It’s a huge blow he is only on a short term loan, but another side may profit from Southend being unable to extend the loan.
Torquay United
A season that has gone horribly wrong, and one that we highlighted could do a month ago. They have the highest xG against, 30.37, and they’ve only conceded 23, suggesting things could get even worse for Gary Johnson’s side.
It was always going to be tough replacing players of the quality that they lost, but the replacements were uninspiring, and a lot of them were gambles in truth. A much more youthful side granted, but it looks like the lost experience is costing them, as they are currently rooted to the bottom of the table.
The xG does redeem it somewhat; they’ve only scored 9 from an xG of 13.69, but this is still the 3rd lowest xG, and they are one of two sides who are yet to hit double figures in terms of goals scored; there’s a lot of work to do in Devon.
One of the oldest and most experienced managers, Gary Johnson was a man on the cusp of a promotion 2 seasons ago, but now faces a relegation scrap. He’s a manager who divides the opinion of the fan base; whilst all recognise the amazing work he has done over the years, they are split on whether he is the man to lead them forward.
It looks as though he’s still going to have the backing of the Torquay board, so the next quarter is crucial. Something needs to change, whether that’s style or personnel, but if by the halfway mark they’re in the same position you’d have to worry for them.
You can’t look past the keepers when it comes to Torquay, who have performed admirably in testing circumstances. Between Mark Halstead and Rhys Lovett they have made 66 saves, the most in the league, and without them Torquay would be far worse off. Their xG against is massive, and it has only been kept down due to their quality keepers.
Halstead has a save percentage of 76.36%, the 5th highest in the league and he’s also prevented 1.92 goals, the 6th most in the league, showing how impressive he has been. Lovett has done well too; he has a save percentage of 70.59%, 11th highest in the league, showing how reliant they’ve been on their keepers.
Wealdstone
A true underdog story, a part time outfit who are punching way above their weight means the Stones are certainly one of the surprise packages of the opening quarter.
They sit just 2 points outside of the playoffs, and the way they are playing there’s no reason why they can’t put up a fight for one of those spots. They’ve only lost 4 games, but did draw 4 in a row, so if they are able to turn some of those draws into wins they could be a real threat.
They have actually scored less than expected, 14 to an xG of 15.67, but they have conceded significantly fewer than expected, just 13 let in compared to 19.11 expected. This is quite mixed, suggesting they are doing better defensively than they should, but their attacking output could be slightly higher.
Stuart Maynard has arguably been the manager of the quarter so far. Bearing in mind he only gets limited training hours per week due to the part time model, the results he is getting on the pitch, both in terms of performance and points, must be applauded.
Wealdstone play good, attractive football, testament to his ability as a manager. He has also managed to repeat a trick from last year; take a striker who has never been prolific, and turn them into a real goalscorer. Last season it was Josh Umerah, who was then sold for good money to Hartlepool, and this season it is Rhys Browne, who already has 7 goals. Maynard also helped attract players and recruit well in the summer, chiefly midfield maestro Max Kretzschmar who has been excellent so far.
Several players have played better than they have before at Wealdstone, but one man we knew had quality was Max Kretzschmar, a man who has carried that quality to his new side. He even scored against his old side, Woking, rubbing salt in the wounds of the Cards. He has a massive 62.5% shot accuracy, and Kretzschmar plays forwards with 34.4% of his passes, so is always looking to make something happen, so his absence in recent weeks has definitely been felt.
Rhys Browne leads the way in terms of goals with 7, and he has shown he has a real eye for goal, as well as overall quality about his play. Browne has a conversion rate of 26.9%, which is very high for a forward, and he also has 3.54 successful attacking actions per 90, a very decent figure.
Between the sticks Sam Howes has arguably been the best keeper in the league, recording a save percentage of 79.63%, the 3rd highest in the league. He also ranks top in terms of prevented goals, preventing 4.67, a massive number which has no doubt won his side numerous points this season. Howes is a top keeper and has been crucial to Wealdstone’s success.
Woking
The Cards have made an immense start to the season, and already look a much more complete side than they did last season. They’re just outside the playoffs, in 8th, and it looks as though they have the minerals to stay the course and maintain a playoff challenge. They have the 4th best goal difference, and 3 of their 5 losses came in their opening 5 games, and 2 of these losses were against Wrexham and Notts, the current top 2.
They are performing well, getting results and look way more sturdy, when last season they were pushovers at times. They have scored more than expected, with 22 goals, higher than their xG of 19.39, but they are also under performing defensively, conceding 14 despite only expecting to concede 12.28. In fact, they have the 3rd lowest xG against in the league, showing how well Sarll has done in making them more defensively resolute.
Darren Sarll was poached from Yeovil last year, and the move couldn’t have gone better for both Sarll and the Cards. He has transformed a Woking side who looked good at times to one who pose a genuine playoff threat. They are tough to beat, have some really dangerous attackers, and a strong core in midfield, all combining to great effect.
They look to take the game to any side, no matter the strength of the opposition, and it’s resulted in 3-2 losses to both Wrexham and Notts, pushing both to the brink despite having lower playing resources. Sarll has done brilliantly in crafting this side, and looks as though his work may culminate in success this season.
Rohan Ince often flies under the radar for Woking, but the hulking midfielder has been pure class once again this season. He possesses a brilliant range of passing and has the ability to break up play, 2 crucial attributes in a central midfielder.
Padraig Amond was brought in this summer with the intention of being a goalscorer, as last time he played at this level he scored over 30 goals. However he’s yet to score a goal, but he’s still be incredibly influential, assisting 4 times, 4th highest in the league.
Reece Grego-Cox and James Daly both have 6 goals each, so are crucial to Woking getting results, and Kyran Lofthouse’s move into wide midfield from right back has been exceptional. He’s looked at home in his new role, adding goals to his game and helping keep the defence tight too.
Wrexham
The Dragons will have wanted to be top at this stage, but they are only 1 point behind leaders Notts County, and have scored the most goals in the league, 38, so all is not lost.
They’ve also conceded just 15, giving them the best goal difference as a result, so there are certainly positive signs there. They have however lost the two games they’ve played against the two sides closest to them, Notts and Chesterfield, and failed to score in either game. This could be their undoing this season, and in the return fixtures at the Racecourse Ground they must look to put it right.
The xG stats don’t make for great reading either; they’ve scored 38 despite only having an xG of 25.31, a massive overachievement of 12.69, something which cannot be sustained.
They’ve also conceded 15 from an xG against of 13.31, and whilst this is much closer it still suggests they may concede less in the future.
Phil Parkinson is a manager that divides opinions of the neutrals, but one who seems to have the backing of the Wrexham support. His 5-3-2 certainly is effective, and gets the potent players they have in great positions.
Parkinson is blessed with great players in every position, and his system certainly looks to get the best out of them. He doesn’t play the most attractive football, and doesn’t even keep that much possession, especially for such a dominant side, but it certainly gets results. One thing he does seem to do is persist with using Elliot Lee as a substitute, despite the fact he has changed the game every time he comes on, probably deserving of a start. Jordan Davies went off injured against Notts County, so Parkinson’s hand may finally be forced, and Lee looked imperious against Barnet, creating chance after chance for his forward line.
Paul Mullin once again had a strong start to the season, scoring 11 goals in 13 games, a massive return, meaning he’s on course for a 39 goal season, and his strike partner Ollie Palmer has 8 goals to his name, again a really strong return.
Aaron Hayden has been exceptional at centre back, and as has Ben Tozer, who is essential to the way Wrexham build up. His long passes forward often bypass defences, and as a central defender in a back 3 he is exceptional, especially in distribution.
Hayden scored 2 against Barnet, showing his strength in the air, and Max Cleworth has been brilliant too, and despite being the youngest member of the defence he wins the highest percentage of his defensive duels, 81.4%, 7th highest in the league as a whole. As already mentioned, Elliot Lee has had a massive impact when introduced from the bench, and is starting to see more starts allowing him to showcase his ability. Lee plays 1.46 smart passes per 90, 2nd most in the league, and he also plays 1.28 key passes per 90, again 2nd most in the league. He’s a superb creator and one Wrexham should really look to utilise more.
Yeovil Town
Up until their 1-0 win over Solihull last time out, no side had won fewer games than Yeovil, and despite the fact they’ve only lost 4 games, they find themselves just 1 point above the relegation zone. If they are to stay up this season they really need to turn draws into wins, but the fact they aren’t getting beaten much is a good sign.
They do however have the 2nd lowest xG of any side in the league, 12.98, but they have scored 12, so they are extremely close to where you’d expect them to be. The same is not the case at the other end of the pitch, where they have conceded 14 from an xG against of 17.83, suggesting that they will start to concede goals sooner rather than later. This indicates that things aren’t really going to get much better for Yeovil, but if you offered them 17th place now, they would surely take it. .
Chris Hargreaves has done well with limited resources at Yeovil, and to his credit he has made the extremely hard to beat, drawing 7 out of a possible 13, losing just 4. However, the style of play isn’t particularly good, and I can imagine it’s a frustrating watch if you are a Yeovil fan.
Yeovil only keep 42.7% of the ball, and have the second highest xG against in the league. It’s usually a damning indictment that your most threatening player is a left back, and Hargreaves cannot work miracles when he simply doesn’t have the personnel, especially in the attacking third.
Jamie Reckord is the Glovers top scorer with 3 goals, despite the fact he has played at left back all season. He’s also done a decent job defensively, winning 66.04% of his defensive duels, so he’s certainly been one of Yeovil’s better performers.
In goal Grant Smith has also performed well, keeping a clean sheet last time out against Solihull despite being under fire for the majority of the game. As a result he’s prevented 0.93 goals so far this season, 7th best in the league, and he also has the 6th best save percentage with 74.07%. Smith is a big reason they’ve only conceded 14 goals.
York City
The best performing of the promoted sides, York City currently sit 7th, just inside the playoffs, and despite signing several new players, meaning a new look side, they have adapted well.
However, they are very much a stop start side, having only won 2 on the bounce, and have also lost 4 games this season. York only have an xG of 15.13, but have scored 17, and have an xG against of 15.36, despite only conceding 11, suggesting that York’s good run may only be temporary, and that a playoff spot might be just out of reach, but they seem to be sticking with the pack and if they can put together a consistent run of form they could surprise a few.
John Askey has won this league before, and he did very well in getting York promoted through the playoffs last season when they arguably weren’t the 2nd best side in the league. He’s also done a great job with recruitment in the summer, and has shown great man management skills integrating the new signings into the side. He plays a style that allows the attacking talent to do well without compromising on the defensive solidity, but his full backs do get forward and involved in attacks. A strong first quarter for Askey.
Lennell ‘The Shop’ John-Lewis has been York’s main man, firing in 6 goals in 13 games. York are heavily reliant on him for goals though, as the next top scorer, Fraser Kerr, has just 2, so if John-Lewis was to go down with an injury they could be bang in trouble.
Maziar Kouhyar has also acquitted himself extremely well, playing in an advanced role, making 6 assists, 2nd most in the league. He’s a quality footballer, and Askey has allowed him to flourish, repaying the faith after Kouhyar scored the second goal in the playoff final win last season.
Ethan Ross has acquitted himself really well between the sticks, recording the highest save percentage in the league, 81.67%, certainly contributing to York having conceded the joint least goals in the league. He’s also prevented a massive 4 goals, 2nd highest in the league, so the 25 year old stopper is certainly in contention for best keeper so far.
A closer look at the overall data now and we will start with the stats for attacking play.
Chesterfield have had the most shots on goal closely followed by Wrexham and Notts County. The surprise packages here are Southend, Bromley and newly promoted Dorking Wanderers.
And it's Dorking who lead the way when it comes to shots on target, posting an impressive 43.80%. Also worth noting that despite very slow starts Aldershot, Torquay and Maidstone actually score very highly as well for shots on target, suggesting that if they can create more chances the goals will come.
The usual suspects appear again in the xG rankings where Notts County, Bromley and Wrexham are creating scoring opportunities with a higher xG value but again this will be because they have also created a lot of chances. However, it's interesting to note that Chesterfield, who have had the most shots on goal this season don't really have a total xG value to represent this.
Wrexham lead the way with goals scored averaging 2.92 goals per game. Notts County, Barnet, Solihull and Chesterfield are the only other teams whose goals tally for the season so far is above average for the league.
Moving onto the defensive stats now and Torquay have invited the most attempts on their goal, 256 in total meaning they face on average 19.69 shots per game.
Notts County lead the way when it comes to keeping shots at bay, a by product of their high possession playing style. Meanwhile York City and Southend have conceded the least goals, just 11, meaning they are conceding just 0.84 goals per game.
If it's goals you want then look no further than Dagenham & Redbridge where games involving the Daggers have amassed an incredible 52 goals, that's an average of 4 goals per game!
We can take another perspective on team performance by analysing the xG (expected goals) data to create an xPTS (expected points) table.
Using a mathematical simulator we can use xG values for each club to create the match points they were expected to win based on their xG performance.
The table below shows each clubs expected points compared to their actual points accrued so far.
You can toggle the table high/low by clicking on the top of the columns.
We can use the table above to compare actual points to expected points. Notts County currently sit in top spot for both tables but it's worth noting that they have over achieved compared to the expected points tally. The same could be said for Wrexham who, like Notts have posted over 6pts more than expected.
This will no doubt be due to the high number of shots with high xG values that both clubs record. Normally you would worry about how sustainable this might be but if the chances continue to be created you can't see that being an issue.
On the flip side Torquay are currently at the bottom of both tables with almost identical points and expected points. The high number of shots faced along with a high expected goals conceded value are the big contributing factors here and the current result of this will provide no comfort to the Torquay faithful.
We will be able to use this data later in the report to help assist us in identifying how each club might progress in the next dozen or so games.
That takes us nicely onto players and our National League best XI for the season so far.
For the Best XI we decided to go with a 3-4-1-2 formation. Not only did this allow us to get as many of the players we considered ‘must picks’ into the side, but the wing back system is the one favoured by the top 2 sides in the league so it seems the natural shape for our side.
We’ve selected players from the list based on performances, but also in keeping with our approach to football statistics. We’ve tried to eliminate bias by using quantitative data to ensure we are selecting players on merit.
Goalkeeper - Nathan Ashmore - Boreham Wood
This was really a toss up between Lincoln of Dorking, Ross of York, Howes of Wealdstone and Ashmore of Boreham Wood, and in truth there was very, very little to choose between the 4. However, being the keeper of the side in 3rd place ultimately swung it Ashmore’s way, as his performances have led to his side conceding just 12 goals, second best in the division. Ashmore has a save percentage of 78.85%, 4th best in the league, and he’s also prevented 3.12 goals, 3rd best in the league. He’s combined surprising athleticism with great command of his box, and Ashmore is certainly one of the best keepers in the league.
Right Centre Back - Jack Cook - Wealdstone
A choice that may surprise a few, and certainly wouldn’t have been on many people’s radar at the start of the season, 29 year old Jack Cook has been an integral part of Wealdstone’s surprising start to the season. Cook is an excellent defender, and as a result he ranks extremely highly in the defensive statistics. Cook wins a massive 81.94% of his defensive duels, 6th highest in the league, a testament to his ability as a defender. Furthermore, he records 11.35 successful defensive actions per 90, 25th most in the league. Clearly Cook has been crucial in Wealdstone only conceding 13 goals, and when you add in the fact that he has scored 2 goals this season, for a side who have only scored 14, it’s clear that Cook has had an excellent start to the season.
Central Centre Back - Omar Sowunmi - Bromley
A towering 6' 6" defender who has been involved in a divisional high 7 clean sheets, Sowunmi is a crucial part of Bromley’s defence. This was clear when they lost 4-1 to Dagenham in his absence. When he’s been in the side they’ve only conceded more than 2 once, on the opening day away to Wealdstone, showing how crucial he has been at the back for a side who are firmly in the playoff race. Sowunmi also has 4 goals to his name already this season, underlining his threat, especially from set pieces. This has come from an xG of just 1.66, and his goal conversion rate of 30.77% is also extremely high. An asset at both ends of the pitch.
Left Centre Back - Kyle Cameron - Notts County
The captain of the league leaders, left sided centre back Kyle Cameron has led by example, not only helping his side with his leadership but with his performances too. Cameron is the only outfield player that has played every single minute for the side at the top, and his defensive statistics are impressive too. Cameron wins a big 75.47% of his defensive duels, highlighting how important he has been in defending that right side for Notts this season. He’s also got quality when in possession, often making threatening runs forward, and playing lots of progressive passes too. He’s an accurate progressive passer, completing 82.57% of his progressive passes, the highest percentage of any central defender this season.
Right Wing Back - Jeff King - Chesterfield
One of the toughest choices in the XI, Spireites full back King gets in due to his performances over the first 10 games, where he was not only a part of an unbeaten defence but also a constant threat from the right full back position. King has an xA of 2.06, 20th of all National League players, and this is from right back in a flat back 4, making this achievement even more impressive. He also plays 10.46 passes into the final 3rd per 90, the 6th highest in the league, and also contributes 0.53 smart passes per 90, 2nd most of any defender. King is also strong defensively, winning 67.06% of his defensive duels and being involved in 9.1 successful defensive actions per 90, so clearly he is a good choice both going forward but also defensively.
Left Wing Back - Jacob Mendy _ Wrexham
The toughest position in this XI, as the options were somewhat limited, despite currently being injured Jacob Mendy makes it in over Wrexham teammate McFadzean and Notts rival Chicksen due to the quality of his work earlier in the season. Mendy is a left back that gets up and down the line frequently, and is equally effective at both ends of the pitch. In the defensive third he excels when compared to the other contenders for the spot; he has the highest defensive duel win rate of the 3, with 66.67%, and he is in fact the only one of the 3 to have a defensive duel win % of above 60%. In the attacking third he is no slouch either; he crosses 3.5 times per 90, 24th most of any player in the league and 9th when it comes to left backs. Mendy also has a goal and assist to his name, so the left back who was signed for big money from Boreham Wood in the summer is certainly justifying his fee, and his return to fitness will be a big boost for the Dragons when it does happen.
Central Midfield - Darren Oldaker - Chesterfield
A midfielder who is a pure joy to watch, Darren Oldaker has the rare ability to control a game from central midfield, and this is often down to his passing accuracy, which is 89.53%. This is the 4th highest in the league, and 31.33% of his passes are forward ones, showing he likes to play football in a positive manner. Oldaker would sit a little more than his midfield partners in this team, something he is clearly able to do as he wins 67.92% of his defensive duels, and is involved in 6.05 successful defensive actions per 90. Clearly Oldaker is crucial in controlling a game, and he was a key part of Chesterfield’s early success, sitting when teammate Jeff King, who is also in this team, ventured forward. He has a good tactical understanding of the game, and has had a good start to the season in central midfield.
Central Midfield - Ruben Rodrigues - Notts County
Often talked about when the debate of best player in the league is brought up, Ruben Rodrigues has played a slightly more withdrawn role this season, but has been just as effective in his new position. Rodrigues is certainly the best creator in the division; he provides 1.84 shot assists per 90, 9th most in the league, plays 1.76 key passes per 90, the most by quite a margin, 0.77 key passes per 90, 6th most in the league and 1.78 deep completions per 90, once again 6th most. This is just a small snippet of his creative stats, and the list really does go on, as Ruben’s quality and creativity have been on display in abundance this season. The side of his game that has improved the most is certainly the defensive side of the game, where Rodrigues wins a surprising 65.79% of his defensive duels, and where he is also involved in 6.68 successful defensive actions per 90. To marry this type of defensive output alongside his creative side is nothing short of remarkable, and he has once again shown that he is a real contender for best player in the league.
Attacking Midfield - James McShane - Dorking Wanderers
A man who just signed a 2 and half year contract extension, very few would have predicted that James McShane would be the National League 3rd top scorer after just over a quarter of the season. What makes his achievement even more impressive is that he is scoring so many goals, all the while doing it as a midfielder. He’s outscored several established strikers, and has an outside chance at the golden boot. What makes it even more of an achievement is that he is scoring these goals for Dorking, a newly promoted side who currently sit in the bottom half of the table. He’s shown he can score all different types of goals, something which was best on display during his hattrick against Notts County. His first goal was a lob from 35 yards, and the other two were more conventional finishes, showing the variety in his forward play.
Striker - Paul Mullin - Wrexham
In most leagues 11 goals in 13 games would be enough to make you top scorer, so Paul Mullin can count himself unlucky to be just the 2nd highest scorer in the National League. Nevertheless, Mullin has been brilliant so far, and has certainly been the 2nd best striker in the league. He’s chipped in with 2 assists, and has been involved in 5.06 successful attacking actions per 90, 16th highest of all players and 5th of central forwards. Mullin would be the penalty taker of this team, with his 4 penalties the most scored in the league, and 50% of his shots are on target so far this season. A brilliant striker who has started really well this season.
Striker - Macaulay Langstaff - Notts County
15 goals in 13 games really speaks for itself, and this man was the first name into this side. The first player to win back to back National League Player of the Month awards, there’s good reason that Championship sides are scouting the 25 year old talisman. A player with natural finishing instincts, Langstaff always seems to be in the right place at the right time. He has the best goals per 90 record, scoring 1.26 per 90, and Langstaff combines his goal scoring efforts with hard work off the ball too. He’s a relentless presser, something which makes him a dangerous player in all phases of the game; certainly the player of the season so far.
Bench
Central Defender - Corey Rodney Panter - Eastleigh
With the bench we have tried to include options that not only narrowly missed out on the first XI, but also those who offer flexibility and versatility. Eastleigh defender Rodney Panter certainly ticks all the boxes, as he has put in exceptional performances as well as covering both centre back and left back. Panter ranks 4th in terms of xA in the whole league, with 3.33, and he also provides the most shot assists per 90, 2.62, showing what a threat he is in possession. He’s also won 69.39% of his defensive duels, and 69.44% of his aerial duels, showing he is more than capable in the defensive aspect of the game, and at just 21 he is certainly a player to watch for the rest.
Wing Back - Aaron Nemane - Notts County
Nemane missed out on the original XI by a whisker, so it only felt right that he was included here, and the fact he can cover both sides makes him an even better option. Nemane has adapted to his new position remarkably well, and as such has established himself as one of the finest wing backs in the league. He is frightening going forward, playing 5.84 crosses per 90, 4th highest in the whole division. He also attempts 4.52 dribbles per 90, and he also plays 0.47 key passes per 90 from right back, a decent number. Defensively he’s been slightly less solid, but hasn’t done badly at all. He wins 60.71% of his defensive duels, and is involved in 5.84 successful defensive actions per 90, both of which are a decent number for a wing back whose main priority is to attack. These defensive stats are actually better than his main competitor for this spot, Anthony Forde, and this is the reason he gets the nod over the Wrexham wing back.
Central Midfielder - Geraldo Bajrami - Notts County
A man that would have certainly been in the main XI had he played more minutes, Bajrami fits the description here perfectly, balancing quality and versatility in abundance. Bajrami completes 85.91% of his passes, wins 70.91% of his defensive duels, is involved in 10.71 successful defensive actions per 90 and plays 0.54 smart passes per 90. In short, Bajrami is about as well rounded a midfielder you could wish for, and the fact that Notts fans still aren’t sure whether his best position is in midfield or defence not only speaks volumes about his versatility but also his immense quality too. If he had played more often he would be in the side, and come the end of the season it’s difficult to imagine there will be any players as well rounded as Bajrami.
Attacking Midfielder - Elliot Lee - Wrexham
We’re pulling a Phil Parkinson here and benching Elliot Lee when he perhaps merits a place in the side, but his impact from the bench is unbelievable. Lee has 4 goals and 4 assists meaning he has 8 goal contributions, 8th most in the league, even more impressive when you consider he’s only played 521 minutes due to being on the bench most of the time. Lee is supremely creative, with his 1.46 smart passes per 90 being the 2nd highest in the league. He’s also 2nd for key passes per 90, playing 1.28, and he plays the most deep completions per 90 too, 3.28. In short, Lee is one of the finest creators the league has, and when you add in his goal scoring threat you get one of the best footballers in the whole division.
Striker - Andrew Dallas - Solihull Moors
The striker with the 2nd most goal contributions, behind Langstaff, Andrew Dallas is probably the most complete forward in the league, firing in 7 goals and also 7 assists too. He tops the assists charts, and the 23 year old has shown this season that he isn’t a selfish forward, and whilst the limelight is going to the 2 men who made the starting XI, Dallas is showing he’s one of the best in the division. He plays 0.78 key passes per 90, the 5th most in the league, showing he is a fantastic creator. He also has a shot accuracy of 62.07%, 3rd highest for players with over 10 shots. This shows he’s at the top of his game both in the finishing department but also the creative side, and Dallas also ticks boxes when it comes to versatility, with the ability to play both in a wide left and a more attacking midfield role making him a particularly useful pick.
Hover or click players for more info:
Closing Thoughts
Heading into the next quarter several key questions remain, at both ends of the table. The early signs are that Wrexham and Notts Co. will pull away, and the stats seem to signify that the pair will start to draw clear from the rest of the pack. If they are able to maintain performances the results will come, and they should push each other all the way, and if one slips up they may pay the price.
As for the playoff places the question marks remain over Paul Cook’s side, who have now lost 3 games on the bounce. If they are able to stop the rot they should be well within playoff contention, if not chasing down the top two, but if levels continue to drop they may even find themselves outside of the playoffs at the halfway stage, the league is that tight.
The stats suggest that both Bromley and Boreham Wood will be well within playoff contention, and both seem almost nailed on to be in the places by the end of the next quarter. Solihull are another who look particularly strong, but Neal Ardley’s side must work out how to break down sides who have a low block.
The hunt for the last playoff spot is likely to be hotly contested, with several sides in the mix right now and others likely to emerge as contenders. Woking and York look the most likely at the moment, and the stats suggest that Darren Sarll’s side have the edge over the competition.
Unfortunately for our manager of the season so far, Stuart Maynard, recent results have been underwhelming, and the hopes that the part time outfit would keep pace seem to be thinning, and seeing them falling away from the chasing pack seems likely. Of the mid table sides, Southend and Eastleigh look like the most likely contenders, as both look tight at the back and know how to grind out a result.
Down at the bottom end things do not look good for Torquay. They are the only side in single figures for points, and if performances, and therefore results, continue as they did in the first quarter there is likely to be an even bigger gap between them and the rest of the relegation contenders.
Scunthorpe have done well stopping the rot, but they must turn some of the draws into wins soon, or they run the risk of leaving themselves too big of a mountain to climb in the next quarter.
National League new boys Maidstone and Gateshead are also likely to be in the mix down at the bottom, with the former in free fall of late. Again, whilst managerial changes at these clubs are unlikely, something has to give if they are to survive.
Two sides who will be extremely disappointed with their league position are Aldershot and Halifax, both of whom at this point are very much involved in a relegation battle. If either are able to pull away remains to be seen, but both will have ambitions to rise up the table in the next quarter.
We hope you've enjoyed our data led dive into the first quarter of the National League season. Even though it covers just 13 opening match days there is already so much to discuss and hopefully our report and it's findings will generate healthy and engaging debate.
All that remains is to thank you for reading and please feel free to get in touch either in the comments below or on Twitter with any feedback, questions or queries.
Your Notts County Stats Team:
Richard - @notts_stats
Tom - @tomhwilliams23
Colin - @Colin_Sisson
Data: Wyscout