So here we are again for our third quarterly report of this remarkable National League season.
As with our previous quarterly reports we will cast a data led eye over every club, the managers and the players, present our updated NL team of the quarter and look ahead to the final run in.
A few bits of housekeeping. Firstly, as most of you might know all data used is from Wyscout so if you see anything that doesn't add up please let us know.
Secondly, just to remind you there are approximately 680 players at clubs in the National League. With this in mind we have restricted the data to players with 500 minutes or more so far. This will mean that some players that missed out in our previous reports could make an appearance in this report.
Thirdly, all the team data visualisations include every league game played up to and including Tuesday 28 February 2023 and has been presented per 90 minutes. The reason for this is because at this point clubs have played differing amounts of games so to use total figures would be a misrepresentation of performance when used in comparison.
Finally, this report has been compiled in partnership with Analysts Bar, an organisation very close to our hearts which specialises in data led football analysis and player profiling, talent ID and analytical reporting.
Right, now that's out of the way let's get started!
Aldershot Town
No side has played more than Aldershot’s 35, so while they sit 6 points above the drop they aren’t safe just yet. The Shots have a big 11 games ahead, with their sole focus remaining in the division. Interestingly, despite playing the most games in the league Aldershot have had the fewest draws of any side, 5. Their results have been decisive, and the Shots are one of the more inconsistent sides in the league. They looked to be putting a run together recently, almost taking points off of Wrexham, but 3 losses on the spin leaves them looking over their shoulder once again.
It can’t be denied that Ross McNeilly has made a big impact. When he took over Aldershot looked almost doomed, but he has managed to turn them round, making them harder to beat in the process. The form of Inih Effiong picked up dramatically after his arrival, with the striker reaching 14 goals before his departure. McNeilly has continued the good work we discussed in our Q2 Report, and while God influence has waned somewhat his appointment must still be considered one of the smarter ones this season.
As mentioned, Aldershot recently let go their top scorer Inih Effiong, who joined Dagenham for an undisclosed fee. They brought in Jake Hutchinson on loan from Colchester, and the 20 year old has shown he has real potential . 3 goals in 9 games, and a further assist, shows how crucial Hutchinson will be in Aldershot’s run in. He’s athletic, strong, and carries their most significant goal threat.
Ollie Harfield continues his hood form since our Q2 Report. Once again he ranks 3rd for Expected Assists (xA), showing the quality of his passes. He marauds forwards from left back and provides excellent deliveries into the box, as he showcased against Wrexham. This is particularly impressive when you consider he plays in a back 4. He had 7 assists to his name this season, more than any other Aldershot player and the highest tally of any defender in the National League. Harfield is just 25, so may have more suitors in the summer, but he will be key at both ends of the pitch for Aldershot.
Central defender Tyler Cordner has been a real leader for the Shots, and with 11 games remaining he will need to continue to display these characteristics. A natural right footer who actually plays on the left side of the CB pairing, the 24 year old is strong, reads the game well and can be dominant in the air. He has 5 goals in 33 appearances for the Shots, meaning he is currently their 2nd top scorer despite being a defender. He’s not just a threat going forwards, and coupled with his strong defensive organisation he is a quality defender too. He has won 66.48% of his defensive duels, and is sure to be a key performer for the remainder of the season.
Altrincham
No side lost more key players over the winter than Altrincham. All 4 of the key players we mentioned in our Q2 Report, Colclough, Newby, Conn-Clarke and Mullarkey, departed the club, leaving boss Phil Parkinson with a mid season re build. We also waxed lyrical last time about Altrincham’s attractive style, and how their league position doesn’t reflect what a strong side they are, but since then there have certainly been signs of progress. For the 2nd Report in a row Altrincham are in a better position than last time, continually rising up the table with a late playoff bid. They sit just 7 points outside those places, and with 3 straight wins they have the form to make one of those positions their own. Quietly going about their business, Alty are a team to watch in Q4.
Promotion specialist Phil Parkinson may have yet another one in his sights, and while nobody is expecting them to actually go up, a playoff berth seems entirely possible. Parkinson deserves the bulk of that credit, and the work he continues to do on and off the pitch is excellent. Altrincham have continued with their free flowing attacking football, with results starting to match their attractive style. They continue to be ranked in the top 10 for possession, 9th, rank 5th for shots and 2nd for dribbles. They are an attacking side. Not only has he improved things on the pitch, his recruitment skills have been put to the test, one he has passed with flying colours. Parkinson utilised the loan marked superbly, and even used some of the funds recouped for his assets to sign a long term striking option. When you also consider he continues to oversee Altrincham’s transition to the full time model the job Parkinson has done is nothing short of remarkable.
£10,000 of the fees recouped for departing players was reinvested in 25 year old striker Regan Linney, a deal which looks to be one of the finest pieces of business this season. Linney was already on 20 goals before he signed for Alty, with the striker tearing it up 2 divisions below for FC United of Manchester. Linney has made the step up look easy, with 3 goals in his first 5 games helping Altrincham embark on their most recent good run. He has natural goalscoring instructs, clever movement and has generally been impressive whenever he has played. He will be instrumental in the remainder of the season, and will be looking to fire Altrincham further up the table.
Another January addition that has impressed immensely is 22 year old attacking midfielder Tyrese Sinclair. Sinclair is the latest of Parkinson’s loan successes, after he joined from Rochdale last month. Rochdale are currently rooted to the foot of the EFL, and Sinclair’s fine form certainly has several of their fans wondering why he was loaned out. An attacking midfielder with real flair, Sinclair is a confident dribbler and looks to be flourishing after finally being used in his more comfortable central attacking midfield role. He interchanges with Manchester United youngster Max Oyedele, who has also been impressive since his arrival. Sinclair has shown a real eye for goal too, with 4 goals in 5 games highlighting his fine form. He currently has the best goal ratio in the division, and if he continues his form there’s no reason Altrincham can’t push for that playoff spot.
Central midfielder Josh Lundstram is one of the few remaining Altrincham players that have performed since the start of the season. The 24 year old joined in the summer, bringing with him a wealth of EFL experience, and it’s shown in his calm and measured performances. Taking up a slightly deeper role than first anticipated, Lundstram is the heartbeat of Alty’s side, a key player in their build up play. He’s shown versatility in recent weeks, operating as a makeshift right back, another testament to his ability as a footballer. He has 3 goals in 34 appearances, and is an ever present for Altrincham. He’s played the most minutes of any Alty player, and features in the top 10 in the league for minutes played. A key player and likely to have significant influence as the season progresses.
Barnet
When we first pencilled in our section for the Bees we were going to wax lyrical about them and the job Dean Brennan has done. While we still will to a certain extent, serious concerns are starting to grown at the Hive, with defensive cracks beginning to show. But first, the positives. Barnet have risen one place since our last report, and should they win their games in hand they would go 3 points off 3rd, a position they are more than deserving of.
The transformation of Barnet, especially defensively, has been nothing short of remarkable. They’ve slipped recently, conceding 14 in 5 games, but before that they had only let in 5 from their previous 11 encounters, a quite staggering record. Barnet are real playoff contenders, but they’d struggle when their usual personnel is unavailable. The lack of defensive depth may well cost them, as they fell to a shock 3-1 defeat last time out. Injuries at the back got even worse as first choice keeper Laurie Walker went down in the warm up, and while it’s still in Barnet’s hands there are vulnerabilities there. It’s going to be a massive 13 games for the Bees, and a real test of Dean Brennan’s squad management skills. He may also be called into action in the transfer marker, where he’s shown this season he is excellent.
There’s a very good chance Dean Brennan could be named the Manager of the Season when all 46 games have been played. That’s how good of a job he has done with the Bees. His tenacious, sometimes abrasive approach has worked wonders, making them hard to beat while getting the best out of their attacking talent. He’s been tactically flexible, using a number of different systems, and he’s shown throughout the season his tactical astuteness. He’s instilled belief in his players, as is shown by the fact they often come from behind to win. Surprisingly Barnet have far out performed their xG, and they currently rank 18th for thy statistic. If they are to maintain their form into the business part of the season they will need to be slightly more consistent in creating high xG chances, but with some of Brennan’s recent additions this shouldn’t be any problem.
The standout of these is striker Harry Smith, who joined on loan from Leyton Orient following the closure of the EFL transfer window. Brennan once again showed how shrewd he was, taking advantage of the fact he couldn’t sign for another EFL club, also beating several National League clubs to his services. The big striker has made an instant impact for the Bees, and since his arrival he has bagged 6 goals in 6 games in all competitions. He’s a real presence, and at 6ft5 he is a true aerial threat. He has that goalscoring touch, and could prove the difference between success and failure this season. The only slight reservation some might have over his arrival is that it has caused Barnet to change system. While his performances have been individually superb, the change to a front 2 has made Barnet a less effective outfit overall. A return to a single striker last time out seemed to work though, and Smith is an excellent forward to be leading their line into the latter stages.
Barnet’s other forward who has been producing plenty of goals is Nicke Kabamba. Since we highlighted him in our Q2 Report Kabamba has added 6 more goals to his tally, brining him to 17 for the season, joint 3rd highest in the league. Only Paul Mullin and Macaulay Langstaff have scored more goals, which is made even more impressive when you consider Kabamba has shifted out wide since Smith’s arrival. Kabamba was subject of serious transfer interest from Chesterfield, the same side he scored a hat trick against following the rumours. He has out performed his xG by 5.12, which perhaps explains why his goalscoring form has dried up a bit of late, but the tall forward will be raring to get back to his best, just in time for the playoffs.
Barnet have a wealth of talent at their disposal, but one that has stood out is 22 year old Ryan De Havilland. One of the brightest young players in the league, De Havilland has 7 goals from midfield, and has shown superb versatility, operating in a number of roles across the season. De Havilland has been instrumental in Dean Brennan’s tactical flexibility, with his ability to play both out wide, behind the striker or in the middle of the park allowing Brennan to change systems almost at will. When you couple this with the fact that De Havilland doesn’t really have a stronger foot, you can see how useful the young midfielder has been. He has come into form recently, which is quite the statement considering his performances have been strong all season. He scored Barnet’s only goal against Torquay and has 5 assists to his name already too.
Boreham Wood
The Wood were 2 points outside the playoffs in our last report, and they remain in the same position this time too. Since then they have conceded just 7 goals, bringing their total conceded to 30, the lowest in the whole division. They have only lost 7 games all season, with only the top 2 losing fewer. This has been the story of Boreham Wood under Luke Garrard for years now, but it doesn’t make it any less impressive. They build their success on solidity, being immensely tough to beat and having the physicality to upset any side on their day. The Wood are unbeaten in 10 games in the league, the 2nd longest streak in the whole division, showing just how strong their performance has been in this quarter. Their 5 at the back system continues to allow them to keep the opposition quiet, although potentially there is an element of luck about their defence, as they are currently over performing by 9.17 when compared to xG against.
37 year old Luke Garrard has once again showed why he’s a manager with such promise, getting his side organised once again in time for a playoff push. The promotion hopefuls had a magnificent FA Cup run too, for which Garrard must take a lot of credit. His credentials on the pitch have been known for some time now, but his strength in recruitment has really come to the fore this season. In the summer he looked to add flair and attacking threat, which his side sorely lacked, but it’s his additions of late which have really impressed. The permanent signings of centre backs Chris Bush and David Agbontohoma seem particularly shrewd, bringing in solid defensive reinforcements at a time when they were thin on the ground. Garrard has shown he is more than just a head coach, and if Boreham Wood are to get over the line Garrard is likely to be instrumental.
Last season Boreham Wood’s top scorer in the league was Scott Boden with 11 goals. This season Lee Ndlovu already has 9 goals to his name, clearly an impressive return for a side who don’t tend to score many goals. In fact, these 9 goals account for 23% of the Wood’s goals this season, highlighting how important he has been in attack. Ndlovu is a physical specimen, one who combines incredible strength and power to dominate defenders. He’s a real threat in the box, but has only added 2 goals in 8 games since our last report. He will need to be more consistent with his scoring if the Wood are to grab a playoff spot, but he is still their main goal threat, and you’d have to imagine he will be their top scorer come the end of the season.
Only 5 keepers have made more saves than Nathan Ashmore, and he continues to show why he is one of the finest keepers in the league. He’s also only bettered by 1 regular starter when it comes to goals conceded per 90, Sam Slocombe of Notts, as his reputation as an impenetrable last line of defence continues to grow. Ashmore has pulled off several save of the season contenders, made even more impressive when you consider the sheer size of the man. He’s commanding, organises his defence well and is a key part of Boreham Wood’s success. If they reach the playoffs you’d fancy Ashmore to come up big when needed, and ultimately his performances in goal could be the difference.
Central defender Will Evans has flown under the radar for the Wood, but he has been an ever present at the heart of the Wood’s defence. The 31 year old plays in the centre of the back 3, and from there he is able to organise the defence, as well as utilise his experience. Evans has played almost his entire career at this level, and he knows every trick in the book. This grit and experience runs throughout the squad, and in this sense Evans embodies Boreham Wood. Evans has won an impressive 69.19% of his defensive duels, and is certainly going to be a crucial part of their run in. He will have to lean on every bit of experience he has in order to make it happen.
Bromley
Andy Woodman’s Bromley are one place worse off from our Q2 Report, but their aim to be in and around the playoffs seems to be one they are matching so far. They’ve drawn 6 of their last 11, so while they don’t get beaten a lot, they also don’t take home 3 points too often either. You get the sense that Woodman sets his side out to not fall to defeat, and to this point it has proven successful. As long as the Ravens have the playoffs within their sights they will be confident they will have one of the 6 spots come the end of the season. Their league position is probably reflective of their overall game too; they sit 9th in the table, and have scored the 11th most in the league and conceded the 9th fewest. Their xG against also puts them 9th best for chances conceded, while their xG for is slightly higher, with Bromley having the 8th highest xG rating so far this season. Bromley are a rare side in that their performances reflect their league position. In short, they aren’t far off the playoffs, and their final quarter could go either way. With just 3 points in it, a playoff berth is entirely possible, but equally so is a downturn in form. It’s a tough one to call.
Andy Woodman has remained consistent throughout the season, using his favoured 5 at the back system to good effect. He’s also dealt with injuries well at the back, and brought through young players who have made a first team impact, once again showcasing his ability to work with youth. Woodman also has an impressive contacts book, one which he has utilised to good effect. He has recruited well in the loan market, and he’s also maintained his side’s physical streak. Woodman is highly rated, and could well be highly sought after in the summer. The last quarter is as big for Woodman as it is for Bromley.
One youth player Woodman has brought through us right back Kellen Fisher, who has really caught the eye in his 14 appearances so far. At just 18 Fisher is one of the younger players in the league, and he has been an ever present since he came into the side against Southend. Possessing excellent energy levels, and maturity beyond his years, you get the sense when you watch Fisher that you are watching a future star. Immense credit must go to the young man for fitting in seamlessly, but also with Andy Woodman who has integrated the 18 year old superbly.
He’s received constant praise from us all season, but central defender Omar Sowumni has had to step up even more since Chris Bush departed for Boreham Wood. And step up he has, leading a strong back line with real leadership skills. On the rare occasion that Sowunmi is missing, through injury or suspension, he is the player they miss most. They look a totally different side when he isn’t playing, far more vulnerable, and this is testament to how important he is to the side. Sowunmi is an excellent defender, and at 6ft5 he’s a physical specimen. He uses these natural gifts at both ends of the pitch, with his aerial threat being well documented this season, although he has only added 2 goal to his tally in this quarter, bringing his total to 8.
Bromley are a side with plenty of young talents, and in midfield they have 2 of the brightest young midfielders in the league. James Vennings, 22, and Jude Arthurs, 21, are both supremely talented, and have controlled Bromley’s midfield this season. In recent weeks Vennings has played at the base of the midfield as a controller, while Arthurs plays to his right, his energetic running providing balance in the midfield. Vennings in particular is a real future star, and we believe he is one of the most well rounded midfielders in the league. He is in the top 20 for pass accuracy, 87.64%, and he has already played over 1000 passes. Vennings has a very bright future, and Bromley must utilise him while they can.
Chesterfield
This is going to make very uncomfortable reading Spirites fans. Chesterfield were by far the biggest underachievers of the 3rd quarter, and from their last available 27 points they have earned just 3 points, through 3 draws. That means they are now winless in 9, a simply terrible record. This misery is compounded when you consider we wrote ‘A side that is momentarily overlooked in the context of the title race, 3rd place Chesterfield should be very happy with the first half of their season.’. That title charge is well and truly over, and it’s now more likely that they will drop out of the playoffs than lift the trophy come the end of the season. While it’s still in their hands performances must improve if they are to hang onto one of those spots. The bizarre thing is that Chesterfield haven’t been well beaten since they travelled to Barnet and lost 3-0. They’ve only conceded more than 2 in 1 other game in that period, against 3rd place Woking, but Chesterfield’s troubles are in front of goal. 4 goals in 8 games simply isn’t good enough, but they aren’t significantly underperforming their xG either. They are underperforming by just 2.77, suggesting that unless they start creating higher xG chances they won’t see a massive upturn in scoring form.
Serious questions are now being asked of Paul Cook, and for the first time in his second stint as Chesterfield manager the fan base is divided. Nobody can doubt his credentials, and he’s still one of, if not the most successful manager in the league. But nobody can deny that results have been slipping, and it’s up to Cook to turn it around. The main issue he seems to have faced this season is not knowing his best XI. He has almost too many options in midfield, leaving him to constantly change the midfield dynamics. The lack of settled selection in the middle has left them looking disjointed, and Cook must improve on that. The lack of out and out goalscorer won’t concern Cook, as his sides rarely do have one, but the fact remains that right back Jeff King remains their top scorer in the league. Cook has utilised the transfer market well though, and shouldn’t be too disheartened; his side still have the 3rd highest xG in the league, and the 4th lowest xG against, suggesting better times will come.
Midfield magician Armando Dobra has really kicked on in this quarter, with the 21 year old being a shining light in a fading side. He has scored 2 of Chesterfield’s last 3 goals, and his influence on games is beginning to grow. The young Albanian has 5 goals and 4 assists to his name so far this term, and on his day he looks unplayable. His low centre of gravity makes him a dangerous dribbler, and he also has an understanding of the game beyond his years. He is always a few steps ahead, and if Chesterfield are to kick on and confirm their place in the playoffs this man is likely to be at the heart of that.
Paul Cook recently added Ryan Colclough, who made it onto the bench for our Q2 Report Team of the Season so far. While he hasn’t quite shown those levels since his move to the Technique Stadium, he has shown flashes of promise, and his talent cannot be denied. Colclough has completed more dribbles than any other player, taken the 2nd most shots and provided the 2nd most key passes. In the final third he is an absolute juggernaut, and there are scarce few in the league who can match up to his levels. If Chesterfield can get the best out of Colclough, and get him anywhere near the levels he showed at Altrincham then they will have a frightening prospect on their hands. And they may need to do so if they are to reach the playoffs.
Right winger Liam Mandeville has been an ever present for Chesterfield this season, and despite his side dropping off he has remained consistent. He works incredibly hard, both on and off the ball, and nobody can doubt the effort Mandeville puts in. He’s also improved his output this season, scoring 5 goals so far, as many as he managed in 80 appearances across 2 National League seasons. On the right hand side he makes himself a real nuisance, and he’s certainly one of the Spireites more underrated players, if not in the division as a whole.
Dagenham & Redbridge
A lot has changed at Dagenham since our last report, not least in terms of their manager. In fact, at the time of writing they are still without a head coach, one of two sides in the division to be in that predicament. Daryl McMahon’s dismissal was far from shocking, but the timing of it was, less than 24 hours before they travelled to then league leaders Notts. It seemed to work a treat though, as they grabbed a 2-1 victory in one of the most bizarre games of the season. That result meant they had back to back wins for the first time since January 2nd, and they could begin looking up the table again. On the cusp of the playoff positions, Dagenham’s season is far from over, and in fact they are right in the mix. They’ve shown they can beat anyone on their day, but it’s consistency that’s let them down. They lost 2-1 to Maidenhead on Tuesday night, just 3 days after they won by the sae scoreline away to a side significantly higher up the table. If they can put more results er in consecutive fashion in the final quarter they may yet grab that elusive playoff spot.
Whoever does take over at Dagenham will be taking over a side that are perhaps in a flattering position. However, the facts remain that they are just 3 points off the playoffs with the final quarter approaching. They will be inheriting a talented squad, and they will have the tools at their disposal to make a real go at the playoffs. Expectations will be high though; McMahon failed to deliver the playoffs last season after being well backed, and that ultimately proved to be his undoing.
Left sided central defender Harry Phipps has had an excellent season, especially when you consider he has transitioned from midfield into the backline. Phipps draws on this experience of playing in midfield, allowing him to progress the ball due to how comfortable he is on it. He looks most comfortable on the left of a back 3, and Phipps is crucial in possession; only midfilder Matt Robinson averages more passes per 90. He’s a strong defender too, and has a real winning attitude. He’s not afraid to put his body on the line for his team, something he may need to do on more than one occasion if Dagenham are to reach the playoffs.
Dagenham added striker Inih Effiong to their ranks after the turn of the year, and the striker might just be the inspired signing they need. Effiong stole the headlines when he scored a superb winner on the break against his former side Notts, but that is just the tip of the excellent season he is having. Effiong has 17 goals to his name this season; only Langstaff and Mullin have more. He’s in red hot form, and can’t stop scoring. He had 14 at the time of his departure at Aldershot, and he’d have been forgiven if he had a slow start while bedding in. A brace on his debut suggested otherwise, and the big forward hasn’t looked back since. His goals will be absolutely vital in the run in, and it’s difficult to bet against a side with a striker in such good form.
Only Barnet’s Laurie Walker has made more saves than Daggers’ stopper Elliot Justham, with the 32 year old acquitting himself superbly so far this season. Several times he has been the difference maker for Dagenham this season, with his shot stopping and long kicking being a vital part of Dagenham’s game. Into his 6th season as Dagenham’s number 1, Justham is one of their longest serving players, but he is still an important player within their squad. Every side heading for a playoff run needs a stopper who is dependable, and Justham is just that; one of the safest pairs of hands in the division.
Dorking Wanderers
Things change quickly in the National League, and change they have down at Dorking. They’ve gone from being one of the success stories of the first half of the season to now being in serious danger of returning to the National League South at the first time of asking.
In our Q2 Report they had done the best out of the newly promoted sides, but now they sit only above Maidstone out of the division’s new boys. The main issue Dorking have faced is their defence. No team has conceded more goals than Dorking’s 77, and when you can’t keep the goals out it’s very hard to get results. Dorking score plenty of goals though; no side in the bottom half has scored more. This is what Marc White and his side must cling to. They score goals, and they must believe they score enough to claw themselves out of danger. However, nothing can change the fact that Dorking have had a simply terrible 3rd Quarter. They may have had a strong attack throughout the season, but they’ve only scored 5 since our last report. They were also 10 points clear of the relegation zone, of which they are now part of, so if they continue on this downwards trajectory you have to fear for them.
Owner-come-manager Marc White is one of the most likeable characters in the division, and his commitment to his attacking brand of football has been impressive. He knows how to get success, but the feeling is he will need to adjust if he is to keep his side in the division. One area you cannot criticse White in is in recruitment. He has added a plethora of players to his side, including defensive reinforcements in Joe Cook and George Francomb, clearly an attempt for White to address problem areas. However, results haven’t turned round, and with 6 defeats in 7 games it’s going to have to happen sooner rather than later; time is running out.
Central defender Dan Gallagher has acquitted himself well this season, with the progressive ball carrier forming a crucial part of Dorking’s build up play. The older brother of Chelsea star Connor, Dan is comfortable on the ball, ideal for a side that average the 2nd most possession in the league. Gallagher ranks in the top 15 for passes per 90, and as far as defenders go few will be better on the ball than the Dorking man. He is of course part of a defence that has conceded 77 goals, but he has still won a respectable 64.93% of his defensive duels. He has been a strong performer for Dorking this season, and you’d feel he will be subject of some interest come the end of the season.
Keeper Dan Lincoln faces the 2nd most shots per 90 of any keeper, 5.79, and makes the 6th most saves per 90 of any keeper, 3.72. Lincoln is an extremely active keeper, and while he concedes over 2 goals per 90 Lincoln has shown he is a strong keeper throughout the season. Often left exposed by his defence, Lincoln has come up big at times this season, and has often kept score lines far more respectable than they should have been. He is also an excellent distributor too, possessing an extremely long throw which allows his side to transition quickly up the pitch, as well as being confident with the ball at his feet like the rest of his side. Lincoln completes an excellent 88.27% of his passes.
Wing back Bobby-Joe Taylor has been extremely active at both ends of the pitch, with the 28 year old playing the 6th most crosses per 90 in the division. His attacking contributions include a decisive brace against relegation rivals Maidstone. Both goals came in stoppage time, the winner in the 95th minute, in what could be a crucial goal this season considering the position both clubs find themselves in. Taylor’s work rate and attacking ability will be key in the relegation battle. His set piece delivery may also provide some big moments for Wanderers before the end of the season.
Eastleigh
The Spitfires continue to improve, and their 3rd Quarter was just another excellent period in what could be a remarkable season. They sit inside the playoffs, in 6th, and have continued their strong home form. Only the top 2 have won more points at home than Eastleigh, and in fact Notts have only won 1 more point at home than the Spitfires. This shows how strong they have been at home all season, and in the 3rd quarter that hasn’t changed. What has changed is that Lee Bradbury has found a formula to get results away from home too. They have won their last 3 away games and are unbeaten away from home since November. It’s quite a stark turnaround, and they are now in sensational form heading into the final quarter. They are unbeaten in 6, and have conceded just 1 goal in that time too. Bradbury’s excellent coaching has made them tight at the back, with only 4 sides conceding more. They have a real chance of getting into a playoff place this season.
Bradbury might just be the most underrated coach in the league. He’s taken an Eastleigh side who finished 19th and conceded 74 goals last season to one that have conceded half of that total, and sit inside the playoffs. He’s taken them up 13 places, a quite staggering achievement, one that doesn’t get spoken about enough. They’ve already won 8 more points than they did last season, and if he keeps this up he may deliver his side a playoff spot. Of course, he’s done so by making his side tough to beat. They are organised, well drilled and know their roles. He has also sprinkled in attacking flair, and in this sense Eastleigh have a nice blend of toughness and quality. Bradbury has been fairly consistent of late, operating with a 4-4-2, one which is clearly reaping the results.
One of these attacking players with flair we’ve just alluded to is 26 year old Charlie Carter. The attacking midfielder has had an excellent season, with 7 goals and 5 assists punctuating that. This means he’s directly involved in 28.5% of his sides goals, something made even more impressive when you consider he’s currently playing as a wide midfielder in a midfield 4. He’s a talented player, picking up good positions on either flank, owing to both his quality and versatility. He is often the difference for Eastleigh, as he provides both a creative spark and goal threat in a side that are very well organised. You can tell he’s spent the majority of his career in the EFL too, and when he plays he looks a cut above this division. He will be crucial for Eastleigh in their playoff challenge.
Central defender Corey Panter is just 22, but you wouldn’t know it if you watched him play. He shows maturity way beyond his years, with genuine quality on and off the ball. He did get sent off against Bromley, but his return will be a big boost for the Spitfires. He’s been at the heart of a defence which have conceded just 1 in their last 5 games and have kept 6 clean sheets since the turn of the year. He’s not just a strong defender though, as Panter is extremely comfortable on the ball. He’s a progressive centre back, and has all the attributes you would desire in a modern day defender. He has a good range of passing, and even has a quality set piece delivery. He’s versatile too, filling in at left back throughout the season. An excellent player, and one with a big future, his performances in the final quarter will be crucial in maintaining this stern defence.
Eastleigh have a plethora of young talent, as we mentioned in our Q2 Report. The average age of their back 4 in their last game was just 23 years old, an incredibly youthful backline. It makes their defensive success recently even more impressive. 20 year old George Langston has played his part in the middle, filling in for the suspended Panter. Oscar Rutherford, 18, has stepped up in the absence of Brennan Camp who went down with injury, who himself is only 22. Rutherford’s performances are even stronger when you consider the teenager is actually a winger by trade, filling in at right back, and playing a key role. At left back Vincent Harper, 22, has continued his brilliant form. An attacking full back, Harper has excellent pace and constantly looks to bomb forwards. He’s a strong defender too, helping his side keep as many clean sheets as they have.
Gateshead
The Heed looked to have clawed their way out of the relegation zone recently, but a point deduction for fielding an ineligible player has seen them slip back into the drop zone at the time of writing. This point could prove crucial come the end of the season, however it doesn’t negate the fact that they are one of the few sides down the bottom who have had a promising 3rd quarter. They’ve won 3 games in that period, and had managed to claw themselves into a position where they may now realistically survive. They have by far the best goal difference of any side in the bottom 5, 12 goals better off than the next best team (Torquay). Since Boxing Day the Heed have lost just 2 games, at home to leaders Wrexham and away to playoff contenders Southend, neither of which are a disgrace. In that period they have scored 15 while conceding just 12; it’s clear they are moving in the right direction. That’s been the key for Gateshead this season; they’ve always had a chance due to their attacking intentions. They rank 13th for xG, and have actually underperformed by 2.97. This suggests that their good form is sustainable, and they look the most likely of the sides at the bottom to get out of danger.
Mike Williamson deserves immense credit for the way he has dug in this season. He has had to name himself on the bench several times due to a lack of depth, and yet somehow he has his side rising up the table. It mainly comes from sticking to his attacking principles, keeping faith in a system that got his side promoted in the first place. His side ranked 7th for possession in our last report, and they’ve actually increased in this aspect, up to 6th with an average of 53.33%. Williamson has doubled down on his side’s mentality, and he seems to have found that formula that will help them survive. It’s up to him now to maintain it in the final quarter to ensure their survival.
Loanee Kamil Conteh had a tough start with the Heed, but he now looks to be one of the most well rounded midfielders in the league. The 20 year old is a physical specimen, and his reading and understanding of the game has really developed of late. Conteh plays 35.55 passes per 90, of which he completes 83.91%, 3rd highest of any Gateshead player. He also wins a very respectable 66.32% of his defensive duels, just showing how well rounded he is as a player. He’s also involved in more defensive duels per 90 than any Gateshead player, underlining both how active he is in midfield, but also how crucial he is to turning the ball over and offering protection to the backline. To say he is just 20 Conteh already looks a class above, and his future is undoubtedly in the EFL.
New recruit Marcus Dinanga got off the mark recently, scoring a winner in a 2-1 win over relegation rivals Oldham, and he will be tasked with leading the line in the run in. Dinanga had had a mixed season with Altrincham before signing with the Heed, but he could be a really shrewd addition by Mike Williamson. It’s been well documented that Gateshead struggled to replace Langstaff and Scott, as any side would, but with an xG rating of 13.26, they may have finally found their man. This is the 6th largest xG total of any player in the league, and out of those that have played over 1000 minutes only Langstaff has a better xG per 90 ratio than Dinanga. His xG per 90 of 0.65 is the same as Paul Mullin, and while Dinanga hasn’t been scoring at the rate of those 2 mentioned, he is clearly getting himself into the same level of scoring opportunities. It is only a matter of time before he starts scoring more regularly, and while we are not suggesting his output will be up there with the 2 mentioned it should be enough to fire Gateshead to safety.
Versatile defender Kenton Richardson continues to impress this season, with the 23 year old playing all across Gateshead’s backline. He seems to have settled recently at left back, and considering the amount of defensive injuries the Heed have suffered his versatility has been absolutely vital. The 6ft1 defender has won 62.07% of his defensive duels, an impressive figure for a full back, and he even scored a crucial equaliser in a 2-2 draw on Valentine’s Day against Oldham. He will feature heavily in Gateshead’s run in, and whether that be at left back, in the centre, or in his more natural right sided role, Richardson is likely to put in a hard working, gritty performance.
FC Halifax Town
A side that are well and truly mid table, Halifax sit 7 points above safety, and 13 off of a playoff spot. Considering they won 5-0 on Tuesday night against a Wealdstone side that were 9 points ahead of them before kick off, you’d think they have enough to stay clear of danger, but the gap to the promotion spots is almost certainly too big. The last quarter is therefore perhaps most significant to boss Chris Millington, who still has the Shaymen fan base divided. It’s easy to see why. On the one hand he has taken a side that was ravaged by EFL sides in the summer, and was left to pick up the pieces. His side have the 10th highest xG in the league, 46.26, and the 8th lowest xG against, 39.54, so the signs are there in some capacity. However, on the flip side, Halifax have already conceded 7 more goals than they did in the entirety of last season, and they are also a fairly uninspiring side to watch. Despite the fact they scored 5 goals on Tuesday, they are still the division’s 2nd lowest scorers, with only Yeovil scoring less. In fact, they scored the same number of goals on Tuesday as they have done in their last 9 games, a quite staggering statistic. It’s a mixed back for the Shaymen, but as long as they stay clear of danger they can start looking ahead to next season.
Chris Millington has had an up and down season, as have the Shaymen, and it remains to be seen whether he will be in charge at the start of the next campaign. However, he has survived several scares as Halifax boss, and the fact he is still in charge with just 12 games to go is testament to his character and the way he has dug in. He may also consider himself a little unfortunate. As eluded to earlier, in terms of Expected Goals his side would be far higher up the table. They have underperformed in front of goal by a massive 12.26, and if his side had taken their chances who knows what the opinion of Millington would be. There is certainly a good coach in there, but whether this job was the right one at the right time remains to be seen.
It’s hard to believe that powerhouse defender Jesse Debrah is still only 21, such is the length of time he has been performing at a high level. The Halifax defender is one of the finest in the division, combining pace and power with genuine ability on the ball. He’s a modern day CB, one who looks to progress the ball out from the back, and his runs out of defence are a joy to watch. He’s shown maturity beyond his years, and he’s maintained the levels he showed last year when he formed part of the tightest defence in the league. Debrah is an absolute colossus in defence, winning a massive 79.49% of his defensive duels. This is the 5th best rate in the whole league, and it just underlines what a superb defender he is. You’d expect his performance levels to even kick on a gear, as he may be potentially playing for a move come summer.
One of the 4 men who have won more of their defensive duels this season is also at Halifax, left sided centre back Jamie Stott. The 25 year old is capable of playing in the centre or to the left of the back 3, and he is a rare commodity in that he is a naturally left footed central defender. Stott wins 81.9% of his defensive duels, 2nd most in the division, a simply superb record. He is also in good goalscoring form, with the defender’s brace against Wealdstone his first and second goals of the season. Stott is a player that often goes under the radar but his performances will be key for the remainder of the season. He is an important player at the heart of Halifax’s defence.
Big forward Mani Dieseruvwe is Halifax’s top scorer with 9 goals, which amounts to 26.4% of Halifax’s goals, a large proportion. He might not have hit the heights expected of him, however he is by far and away their biggest goal threat. He has scored over twice as much as their next highest scorer, and the 6ft5 forward has offered plenty in his hold ip game too. He’s involved in more aerial duels than any other Halifax player, and ranks 20th in the league as a whole. He is the focal point of the attack, and while the arrival of Liverpool loanee forward Fidel O’Rourke means he is now rotated in and out of the side, Dieseruvwe remains their biggest goal threat.
Maidenhead United
Maidenhead continue to defy the odds, 1 point further away from relegation than they were in our last report. This means they are now 9 points above the drop, and while there is a long way to go you’d feel confident in believing the Magpies will be in the National League again next season. Maidenhead are in a wonderful run of form too, with 3 wins on the bounce really dragging them away from the danger. As always, Devonshire builds his sides on defensive solidity, and 6 goals conceded in 7 games underlines this. With 7 of their remaining games at home, Maidenhead will be starting to feel confident about their chances of survival. Unless something drastic changes, the Magpies aren’t going anywhere.
To say his side are only part time, Alan Devonshire has all of his players buying into his philosophy. He may be one of the oldest coaches in the division, but his methods are tried and tested, and continue to get Maidenhead punching well above their weight. Devonshire has a side full of grafters, and to say he is the one of the oldest coaches in the league his side is surprisingly youthful. Devonshire has opted for a 4-2-3-1 of late, with target man Emile Acquah as the focal point, and it’s got the best out of his players. He likes to soak up pressure and hit sides on the break, and the pacy runners in behind Acquah allow them to do that. Devonshire doesn’t like his side to keep the ball; they average just 38.6% possession, by far the least in the league. But his methods are effective, and for their sake long may it continue.
As mentioned, big forward Emile Acquah is the focal point up top, and he’s also Maidenhead’s top scorer with 10 goals, twice as many as their next top scorer. At just 22 Acquah is one of the younger forwards in the division, but that hasn’t stopped him from hitting double figures. His 6ft1 stature allows him to hold the ball up for his side, but for such a big forward he is surprisingly mobile. Acquah has clever movement, and is often too quick and too powerful for his opposition. Acquah managed just 2 goals for the Magpies this season, so his return has not only been a stark improvement, it’s also been somewhat surprising. 22/23 appears to be the season he has announced himself to the National League, and it will be interesting to see how many goals he adds between now and the end of the season.
Another young English talent that has caught the eye for Maidenhead this season is Zico Asare. The right back has played 31 games for the Magpies this season; only Charlee Adams and Acquah have played more. Capable of playing in the middle, it’s in his more natural right back position where Asare has flourished this season. The 21 year old has forced ever present Remy Clerima to find a new position in the side, such have been the strength of his performances so far this term. A well rounded full back, Asare is quick and an excellent 1 v 1 defender. He wins 64.32% of his defensive duels, a figure which is very high for a full back, and he fits into Devonshire’s side perfectly. Energetic, always running and working hard for his side, Asare has a big future ahead of him.
In our last report we highlighted the strength of Dan Gyollai’s performances, so it only seems right that we now praise the man that has dislodged him between the sticks, Alexis Andre Jr. Gyollai is out for the rest of the season through injury, but they have one of the finest deputies in the league in Andre. The Frenchman ranks 5th for saves made per 90, 3.75, and he has a staggering save percentage of 82.22%. This will likely decrease as he plays more games, as he’s managed just 9 appearances so far, but that is still an exceptional shot stopping rate. Andre is athletic, allowing him to make acrobatic saves, ones perhaps other keepers would be unable to. He’s also a good distributor; Andre completes 87.5% of his progressive passes, 9th most in the league.
Maidstone United
We eluded to it in our last report, but it now seems Maidstone are staring an immediate return to the 6th tier right in the face. Now rooted to the bottom of the table, Maidstone have dropped 3 places since our last report, and there aren’t really any signs to suggest a turnaround is coming. Since then they have disposed of head coach Hakan Heyrettin, and while they did have a momentary boost in form when George Elokobi took over, Maidstone haven’t had a win in the league since November of last year. They are on a 14 game winless run, during which time they picked up just 3 points thanks to draws. They aren’t winning, and are losing plenty too; it simply isn’t looking good. They are 7 points from safety, having played 3 more games than the sides outside of the drop zone. They’ve conceded the 2nd most, scored the joint 3rd least and rank 3rd for xG against too. They do at least rank 14th for xG for, but last time they ranked 10th for that metric, once again showing that they are slipping. It’s sad to say, but Maidstone need to see a drastic change if they have any chance of survival come the end of the season. The one shining light they do have is that they are still in the FA Trophy; what a bittersweet season this could end up being.
A relegation on his record would seem extremely harsh on new boss George Elokobi, who stepped into his first managerial role of any kind since Heyrettin’s departure. Elokobi is an extremely likeable character, and the 37 year old is having to learn on the job while also trying to fend off relegation. It’s a tough gig, one he is clearly struggling with, but one he is having a real good go at. It remains to be seen whether he will remain boss if they do go down next season, but the board did interview other candidates, before deciding to give the then interim boss the full gig. He has managed to stop the rot to an extent, as Maidstone have had back to back draws. However, when you consider they were against the sides in 23rd and 21st respectively, you feel that those were must win games, rather than being 2 valuable points gained.
Diminutive forward Jack Barham has scored 9 goals for Maidstone, 23.6% of their total, a good return considering the circumstances. Barham is a clever player, and in the box he really comes alive. Blessed with excellent anticipation, if the ball falls to Barham he tends to find a way to find the net. He showed his natural finishing instincts with a brace against Wrexham, where his quick fire double almost ensured they picked up a shock point against the league leaders. Barham is actually underperforming when it comes to xG, with his return 3.32 less than his xG of 12.32. This suggests that Barham’s scoring isn’t going to dry up any time soon, and if he can continue scoring at this rate you get the feeling he will be playing in the National League again next season, with or without Maidstone.
Central midfielder Regan Booty has had a strong season despite his side being rooted to the foot of the table. He has 6 goals to his name, 4 of which were penalties, and his cultured left foot has conjured some big moments for the Stones. A leader, despite being just 24, Booty is an excellent distributor of the ball in that deep lying playmaker role. He has played more progressive passes than any other player in the league, showing his willingness to get on the ball and play it forwards. He also ranks 2nd for deep completions, showing his ability in and around the box, and with 4 assists he has shown an ability to create. It’s a shame for Booty that his side where they are in the table; you get the feeling in a better side he would flourish.
Despite playing for a side right at the bottom of the table, winger Roarie Deacon ranks 5th for assists. He has provided 9 this season, with the 31 year old also scoring 4 goals of his own, a terrific return. He is also a versatile option, playing on both flanks in both a traditional wide role, as well as playing at wing back. He’s also featured in a 10 role more recently, and it’s been this versatility which has been most impressive. He has a wonderful work ethic, and is clearly a top professional too. Only 13 players have attempted more dribbles than the 31 year old, and he is an asset that Maidstone must look to keep hold of, no matter what happens.
Notts County
We should be writing about a side being on 83 points after 35 games as runaway title leaders. It is perhaps typical Notts luck then that they sit only in 2nd, 1 point behind leaders Wrexham having played a game more. Despite the fact that, as it stands, Notts may have to go up via the playoffs, they are still having an unbelievable season. The strength of their title rivals shouldn’t distract from how wonderful their own performances have been. They’ve scored the most goals, 89, conceded joint 3rd fewest, 32, have the best goal difference in the league and have lost just twice all season. They broke a club record for games unbeaten in a league season, 25, and have done so all the while playing attractive, expansive football. Notts are a side who know the value of possession, and on the ball there can be few arguments against saying they are the best in the league. They average 68.9% possession, 11% more than 2nd place Dorking, and have completed 20520 passes. This is 5,920 more passes than the next most in the league, quite staggering numbers. Notts also top the charts for shots, 545, crosses, 845, dribbles, 1,124, touches in the box, 941, fouls suffered, 395 and corners, 244. They are having a sublime season, and you would hope they would be rewarded at the end of it, either with the title or the playoffs.
Head coach Luke Williams has answered any questions there were over whether he was the right man to take Notts forward, with this being the Magpies best season at this level by some distance. He has brought intensity to a side that severely lacked it, and has got the best out of players, providing some with their best seasons yet. He’s transformed Adam Chicksen from a defensive full back to a goalscoring wing back, and he has played a large part in Langstaff’s goal scoring form, pushing him into becoming more of a box player, and it’s clear to see what a brilliant footballing mind he has. He also speaks with an open honesty that must be admired, and in general he is a likeable character. He’s shown more than enough to get Notts fans excited, and a contract extension to 2027 is not only justified, but could be considered a coup for the club.
You can’t look past Macaulay Langstaff when you talk about Notts County. The striker has 32 goals already in his first season at the club, and he will be gunning for both the club and league scoring record. He needs 8 goals to beat the club record and 9 to be the league’s top ever scorer in a single season, both accolades he could only have dreamt of at the start of the season. Langstaff is an incredible finisher, the most natural in the division, and his movement and timing in the box especially are a sight to behold. He is capable of scoring all different types of goal, so it’s no surprise that links to Championship clubs have been circling all season. Notts’ biggest move in January was keeping hold of Langstaff, as his goals will be crucial in the title challenge. He’s also crucial to the side off the ball too; he’s the first line of defence, leading a high intense press with real dedication.
Due to Langstaff’s goal scoring exploits Ruben Rodrigues is often overlooked; however, only Langstaff and Wrexham’s mulling have more goal involvements than the Portuguese midfielder this season. 14 goals and 10 assists just begin to show the influence Rodrigues has on games, and he’s a leading candidate for best footballer in the division. While that is up for debate, there is no doubt that he is the most creative in the league. Rodrigues’ stats, quite frankly, are a joke. He leads the way for smart passes with 97; 2nd place, Greg Olley of Gateshead, has 35. He has played 39 key passes, 12 more than 2nd place Ryan Colclough. Rodrigues has played 112 deep completions, Booty in 2nd has 52, it’s a list that can go on. A pattern begins to emerge; Rodrigues is head and shoulders above the other players in this league when it comes to creating chances. He’s a complete footballer too. There’s an argument he is the club’s best presser, and the fact he’s won 60.75% of his defensive duels is testament to how well rounded he is. He’s a credit to the whole division, and viewers of the league should enjoy him while they can.
Midfield maestro Matty Palmer might just be the most underrated player in the league. Scarcely is he mentioned in the conversation of best player when he has every right to be. He signed a contract extension on Christmas Day, and Notts are certainly lucky to still have him at the club. Palmer has played 2906 passes so far this season, 370 more than the next best, Kyle Cameron also of Notts. He’s also the league’s most accurate passer, completing a staggering 92.81% of his passes. He is a player that has total control over a football game, and can run them from midfield almost single handedly. He has always been a level too good for this division, but the 28 year old has really kicked on this season. He played the most passes in the league in 21/22 too, but his total for that campaign was 2,960; that’s just 54 passes more than this season so far. He still has a quarter of the season left to play. You’d imagine he would pass that total in his next game. He is having a fantastic season and will be crucial in the title run in.
Oldham Athletic
It’s been some turnaround for Oldham Athletic. Last time we wrote ‘the Latics are staring down the barrel of yet another drop in division’ but since then they have amassed a massive 21 points, leaving them well and truly clear of relegation. It now means they are 15th with 41 points, and they have a game in hand on the teams around them too. While a win in that game wouldn’t quite put them into the top half, it would more or less confirm their survival in the division. That would have been the aim for David Unsworth when he took over, and credit must go to him for delivering that. He has of course been aided by the fact that Oldham have been spend happy; they have by far this biggest squad in the league, and added even more to their squad over the winter. Those additions seem to have worked though, as a +11 goal difference on our last report indicates. In their last 2 gams they have gone away to 2 sides in the playoffs, and won both games, signs of the progress they’ve made in the 3rd quarter. They sit 12 points off the playoffs, and that will surely be too far for them to climb, but with momentum behind them, and a quality squad, there’s no reason they shouldn’t rise a few more places up the table.
David Unsworth received a lot of criticism after his start with Oldham, and in fairness our appraisal of the Oldham boss wasn’t exactly shining. He has been extremely well backed, and at times has looked like he still doesn’t know what his best XI is. Credit must be given where credit is due; Unsworth has certainly turned it round. Oldham are no longer in danger of going down, and their fans will be looking forward to next season. Unsworth will have the luxury of a full pre season, and only then will the critics really be able to judge his ability as a manager. In the meantime, 21 points from a possible 36 since our last report is a pretty tidy return, and the fact he is finding systems, namely the 4-4-2 and 4-1-4-1, which allow him to field the vast amounts of attacking talent deserves a mention too.
One addition which is perhaps not spoken about enough is that of central defender Josef Yarney. The arrival of the former Chesterfield defender raised a few eyebrows, but Unsworth saw enough during a trial period to take the 25 year old on board. Since then, he has been nothing short of remarkable. The athletic defender has made 9 appearances since his arrival, scoring 2 goals in the process. It’s his defending which has really caught the eye though. Yarney has brought an asuredness to the Oldham backline they had previously lacked; it’s no coincidence that since he signed they have won 5 games, and have been in their best form of the season. Yarney has seemingly proven the doubters wrong, and is now one of the first names on the team sheet.
Another winter addition that has seemingly fit in very well is midfielder Mark Shelton. Shelton is a former National League promotion winner, and while that is beyond the realms of possibility this season, he could be eyeing it up in the near future. Shelton’s performances have been strong, and his experience has really shown since his arrival. The 26 year old has operated at both the base of a midfield 3, but also to the right of a midfield pairing, and in both he has excelled. He already has a goal to his name in just 7 appearances, and he is quickly developing into a fan favourite. The goal in question was an excellent low driven strike from the edge of the area, and you’d expect Shelton to add another couple to his tally, such is the quality of his long range shooting.
John Rooney is a name that will be familiar to long time followers of the National League, and they will also be well aware of the amounts of quality he possesses. The 32 year old has been used both out on the left and more centrally, and in both roles he is given the freedom to roam and create. Rooney has 2 goals and a further assist to his name, but his overall influence on games stretches far further than goal contributions. Rooney has played more smart passes than any other Oldham player, and is undoubtedly their creative spark. They have leaned on his experience at times, and will continue to do so for the remainder of this season; and potentially beyond.
Scunthorpe United
The Iron have had what can best be described as a bittersweet 3rd quarter. On the pitch the story is pretty much the same as it has been all season. They are in the relegation zone once again, albeit one place higher, and 11 points in the 3rd quarter isn’t a complete disaster. They are however a point further away from safety, and as the weeks roll on the more likely it looks that they will be facing back to back relegations. Their last game, a 1-1 draw with bottom of the table Maidstone, feels like a big missed opportunity, and with 66 goals conceded they still have the 3rd worst defence in the league. However, when you consider the bigger picture, the 3rd quarter was an immensely successful one for Scunthorpe fans. Ultimately, they got their club back, thanks to a club takeover led by David Hilton. It’s the dawn of a new era, one which has a brighter future than the club that seemed doomed beforehand. Sure, there’s a good chance they end up in the National League North next season, but in the long term they will be much better off.
Scunthorpe pried Jimmy Dean away from Peterborough Sports, a job he had held since summer 2015. Dean was immensely successful there, providing the club with 4 promotions in 5 seasons. Within that were 3 league titles, and 11 trophies overall. It’s quite the CV, and even though those won’t help him in a relegation dog fight they do show his promise as a coach. 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses isn’t the ideal start, but Dean will certainly take positives from those games. His former side are currently mid table in the National League North, and while he may end up back at that level next season he will be in a better place long term. He’s in charge of an exciting long term project, even if he cannot perform the great escape this season.
One man who followed Dean to Scunthorpe was winger Dion Sembie-Ferris. The 26 year old has a lot of attacking talent, and looks to be an exciting addition ahead of the final quarter. He’s a player z Dean knows and trusts and for good reason. Sembie-Ferris had 6 goals and 5 assists for Peterborough Sports before joining Scunthorpe, good attacking numbers for a side who sit in the bottom half. Capable of playing on either flank, Sembie-Ferris is a direct runner, one who loves to get at defences and cause issues. He has end product too, making him an effective and eye catching addition. He will be buoyed by the fact he stated his first game last time out against Maidstone, and he will look to build on this moving forward. If Scunthorpe are to make a real go at survival, he will be key, especially in the final third.
The Iron were badly hurt by the departure of Caolan Lavery. The striker’s contract expired in mid January, and pre takeover they were unable to renew his contract. They will be delighted then that they have added an equally potent front man in Danny Elliott. He’s yet to get off the mark for Scunthorpe, but the 27 year old had a prolific loan spell with Gateshead, which prompted Scunthorpe to secure his services. He scored 5 goals in 7 games for Gateshead, a wonderful record. This means he now scores 0.37 goals per 90, just a fraction lower than Lavery’s 0.45. Elliott is an excellent addition for the Iron, and his athletic prowess mixed with finishing ability should bring some goals by the end of the season.
20 year old attacking midfielder/winger Cameron Wilson has had something of a breakout season, coming to the fore as a first team regular. The youngster has caught the eye with his trickery and offensive output. Wilson has 3 goals and 2 assists for the Iron this season, a decent return when you consider both his age and Scunthorpe’s league position. Wilson has shown a lot of promise, and he has impressed out on the right flank, despite often being isolated. Wilson doesn’t see a lot of the ball, managing just 17.29 passes per 90, but he is an effective player. He doesn’t need large volume to make an impact, and he takes his chances with efficiency. This is useful for a side down the bottom who don’t see much of the ball, and in Wilson Scunthorpe appear to have a very bright young player on their hands.
Solihull Moors
We called it in our Q2 Report. We said that ‘things need to change if they are to hang onto that (playoff) spot’, and when things didn’t change they did indeed fall out of the playoffs. They didn’t just fall; they fell hard. Solihull now find themselves in the bottom half of the table, with an uncertain future after rumours of their boss’ departure beginning to circle. The Moors now sit with a negative goal difference and have lost more games than they’ve won, a stark contrast to the side we saw for the majority of the first half of the season. The Moors find themselves in a real slump, with just 2 wins since Boxing Day, a period in which they’ve lost 7 games. 4 goals conceded last time out suggested the Moors are a shell of their former selves, and look completely shot of confidence. They still rank 4th for average possession, 55.1%, but this is where the problem lies. Ardley has stuck to his guns, playing out from the back in a possession based style. He has done so without the right personnel, a dangerous game to play. Mistakes are rife within the side, and when you are devoid of confidence it’s a tough style to play. We said something needs to change last time, and it still does; but now it’s about saving their season, not a playoff spot.
It seems the writing is on the wall for Neal Ardley. The 50 year old had his side just 90 minutes away from the Football League, but the playoff final hangover seems to have caught up with him again. His dedication to an attacking style is admirable, if not slightly concerning. It’s not reaping any rewards, yet he sticks with it anyway, hoping something will finally fall into place. As of yet it hasn’t, and no matter how many times he changes shape, be that a 5-3-2 or a 4-1-4-1, the results seem to be the same. Last time out against Altrincham was a pretty damning indictment of where Ardley is right now. His side looked devoid of confidence, and a 4-1 loss actually flattered them. He hasn’t been helped by the fact that starting winger Ryan Barnett was sold to Wrexham last week. It’s been a tough season, one Ardley will be glad to see the back of.
Despite his side struggling, the performances of 23 year old Scottish forward Andy Dallas have been nothing short of exceptional. 13 goals and 10 assists see him rank 4th for goal involvements, 47.9% of Solihull’s goals. He is absolutely integral to the way they play, and they rely heavily on him for goal threat. He’s a good finisher, and a selfless provider, but it’s his running in behind and movement which impresses most. He is such a clever footballer, allowing him to move between the defensive lines with ease. He will often look to use his pace to spring offside traps too, ghosting in behind and finding a chance before anyone can react. He has excellent anticipation, and his understanding of the game provides him with many a chance. An excellent forward, Dallas’ deal expires in the summer, with a whole host of EFL clubs already queuing up to secure his services.
Energetic runner Callum Maycock is the heartbeat of this Solihull side. He’s their most active player, breaking up attacks in midfield, and starting them too when he turns the ball over. His high energy style allows him to be an effective presser, something he leads for Solihull. His work rate is unmatched too, and in the centre of midfield Solihull have one of the hardest grafters in the division. The 25 year old has 3 goals in 30 games, and 1 assist, and due to his energy and running power he’s efffective in both boxes. Maycock wins a respectable 59.3% of his defensive duels, of which he is involved in 6.21 per 90, showing how active he is. A strong runner, Solihull simply don’t look the same without Maycock in the side. He didn’t start at the weekend, and they ended up being battered by Altrincham; that’s no coincidence.
Young defender James Clarke has operated in a number of positions this season, and looks comfortable both at right back and centre back too. The 22 year old has played 1,854 passes this season, 4th most in the league; the top 3 all play for Notts. This is partially a by product of Ardley’s insistence on playing out from the back, but Clarke looks comfortable on the ball unlike some of the other defenders at the club. He may need to improve defensively though, as the full back wins just 53.95% of his defensive duels. He’s a young full back though, and is clearly crucial to the way Solihull build from the back.
Southend
Just this week the Shrimpers we’re back at HMRC, as the club continues to be run into disrepair by Ron Martin. It’s been a torrid time for both the players and fans of the club, so the fact they sit within a playoff spot is testament to how well they have coped with the situation. There is a real sense of togetherness at Southend, and their will to win and fighting spirit cannot be questioned. In fact, if they win their game in hand they will go from 7th to 4th, showing not only how tight it is in the playoffs, but also what a successful season they are having despite the circumstances. Kevin Maher is performing admirably, building his side to be tough to break down. They have the 2nd best defence in the league, having conceded just 31 goals, a quite startling record. This incredible defensive record means that they still have the 5th best goal difference in the league, despite the fact they’ve only scored 41 goals. Blues fans would probably want to see more goals from their side, but the fact remains that they usually don’t need to score them; 1 is usually enough.
Kevin Maher is in the conversation for manager of the season, and in fairness he would be there based purely on results alone. But when you throw in the fact he is dealing with a situation where he and his staff haven’t been paid for months at a time, his achievements stretch beyond the pitch. He’s shown excellent man management skills, as well as displaying the ability to get a side seriously organised. Maher has favoured a 5-3-2 system this season, but he has used other system thanks to defensive injuries. His side are direct, and commit several men to the final third, with the wing backs bombing on. His Southend side are hard workers too, and they clearly buy into the manager’s philosophy. He’s done an excellent job; Maher has a massive future ahead of him.
Jack Bridge started the season as a substitute, but the 27 year old is now one of the first names on the team sheet. Traditionally a winger, Bridge had converted to left wing back in Mather’s 5-3-2 system, despite being a natural right footer. He then transitioned into a midfield role, again to the left of the middle 3, but in recent weeks he’s gone back to his wing back role. Wherever he has played he’s performed to an immense standard. His performances have been so good that then league leaders Notts publicly l showed interest in him, although nothing materialised. Bridge has remained a fantastic dribbler even in his new role, with only 3 players completing more dribbles than him. He had 8 goals and 5 assists from wing back, although this tally is aided by the fact he is his sides penalty taker, but this is still ridiculous output from a wing back.
On the other side, also at wing back is another star Southend performer, 25 year old Gus Scott-Morriss. In a similar vein to Bridge, Scott-Morriss loves to get forward, often arriving at the back post late to get on the end of a cross. He has 4 goals to his name, all of which are headers. Only Wrexham’s Aaron Hayden and Barnet’s Harry Pritchard have scored more headers this season, showing how effective he is in the box. He also provides plenty of crosses into the box too, 4.86 per 90, 11th most in the league. A tireless runner up and down that flank, Scott-Morriss has shown how important he is at both ends of the pitch for Southend. It shouldn’t be too long before he is plying his trade in the EFL.
There’s an argument to be had that Cav Miley is the signing of the season. The central midfielder joined on a free from Eastleigh in the summer, and he’s not only been one of Southend’s most important players, but he’s been one of the best midfielders in the league too. Miley anchors Southend’s midfield, and provides vital protection to the back 3 when the aforementioned wing backs push on. He’s extremely active in the middle, covering ridiculous amounts of ground, looking to break up play and start counter attacks. Only Dan Pybus of York has been involved in more defensive duels, showing how crucial he is in Southend’s defence. He also has a wonderful left foot, one which has provided 3 assists so far this term. There’s a reason Miley was the subject of interest from Wrexham, and he will be key in Southend’s promotion push.
Torquay United
We eluded to it in our Q1 Report, confirmed it in our Q2 Report and will now repeat it in our Q3 Report; Torquay are in serious danger of going down. That now feels like an obvious statement, but if you’d have asked at the start of the season promotion would have been a more realistic proposition. It’s the same story now though, and they are now 2 points further away from safety than they were in Q2. They simply haven’t replaced the players that left in the summer, and while Gary Johnson recruited well over the winter the results still are coming. They have the 4th worst goal difference in the league, -22, have conceded the 4th most goals, 60, and scored the 3rd fewest goals too, 38. They are 2nd for xG against, and have the 5th lowest xG. When there are 4 relegation spots and you consistently rank in the bottom 4 for crucial metrics the writing is on the wall for Torquay.
We wrote in our last report that the Torquay fan base were divided over whether Gary Johnson was the right man for the job, but it seems fairly unanimous now they they believe he isn’t. Still, he remains in the job, and will more than likely do so til the end of the season. He may still lose his job if Torquay do somehow manage to stay up, however survival would go a long way to giving him a chance of keeping it. Some credit must be given to him too. Johnson has used his extensive list of contacts to secure some useful loans over the winter period. Still, he seems to have run out of ideas, and unless something drastic changes he will be adding an unwanted relegation to his CV.
Despite playing in a side who have had a poor season, ‘the Non-League Giroud’ Aaron Jarvis has stepped up big time. He has 10 goals so far this campaign, over twice as many as their next top scorer, and 26.3% of Torquay’s goals this term. He’s a talented goalscorer, one who really comes alive in the box. He’s done well despite limited service, and the 6ft2 forward does provide a good focal point for their side too. He’s scored 3 in his last 4, and scored vital goals in their wins against Maidstone and Barnet. He’s hitting good form at the right time of the season, and if they are going to get out of the relegation zone his goals will be absolutely crucial.
Nobody can knock the work rate of central midfielder Tom Lapslie, and he’s one of the few Torquay players who have genuinely stepped up this season. Lapslie is a gritty, terrier like midfielder, one who never stops running. He’s a leader too, always vocal, and will be instrumental in their relegation fight. He also has genuine quality too, something which has scarcely been said about Torquay players this season. Lapslie has 4 goals and 4 assists, a strong return for a central midfielder, especially one in a side that’s really struggling. He’s been a shining light for Torquay this season.
One of the newest recruits that has impressed is Southampton loanee Nico Lawrence. The 19 year old is tall, athletic, calm and composed. He had all the attributes you would want in a modern day centre back, and it is only Johnson’s contact list which has brought him to the club. In reality, he looks a cut above this level. Lawrence has played either to the left of a centre back pairing or in the middle of a back 3, and he’s shown maturity and organisational skills beyond his years. He’s composed on the ball too, and certainly has a big future ahead of him. Lawrence has won an absolutely massive 85.96% of his defensive duels, by far the biggest total in the division. He’s excellent in the tackle, reads the game well and could well prove to be a difference maker in this relegation battle.
Wealdstone
The part time outfit continue to defy expectations, and despite the fact they are now 7 points outside the playoffs, whereas in Q2 they were level on points with 7th, the Stones will still be very happy with their 3rd quarter. Since the 10th of December Wealdstone have lost just 3 games, 1 of which was away to league leaders Wrexham. When you consider the amount of injuries they have had, and their part time status, this is an incredible achievement. During this run they drew away to Woking and Chesterfield, both in the playoffs, and beat Eastleigh at home, also in the playoffs, showing their ability to compete with the very best sides. Wealdstone continue to play their attractive, expansive football, with the Stones averaging 54.1% possession, 5th highest in the league. They’ve played some beautiful stuff, and while the playoffs now seem out of their grasp it’s still been a wonderful season.
Boss Stuart Maynard is beginning to be linked with other jobs, recognition for the amazing work he has done this season. He claimed our Q1 Best Manager, and there’s every reason to believe he will be in contention to be manager of the season as a whole. His side play attractive football, he gets great results and all on a shoestring budget. Not only is Maynard competing with sides that have more spending power, he’s also competing with sides that train full time. A few training sessions a week is all Maynard needs to get his side ticking. They continue to defy expectations, and Maynard’s stock is at an all time high. Should he do the impossible and deliver a playoff spot at the end of the season there would be no doubt over who the top boss of the campaign would be.
25 year old keeper Sam Howes continues to impress between the sticks for Wealdstone. We’ve recognised him in both of our reports this season, and his performances have remained strong throughout. Howes has made the 3rd most saves in the league, and despite facing numerous shots Howes has a save percentage of 72%. This is extremely impressive, especially over such a large sample size. Howes is commanding, a strong character and as the stats show, an excellent shot stopper. He has won his side points on his own this season.
The return of Max Kretzschmar has been a welcome one for the Stones, with the 29 year old’s quality showing through this 3rd quarter. He scored a late equaliser against his former side Woking, which brought his tally to 5 for the season. When you consider he’s managed just 23 games due to injury, this goal return is impressive. An attacking midfielder by trade, Kretzschmar has played slightly deeper for the Stones in a midfield 3. He is the creative spark in their side, completing 0.9 deep completions per 90. His return from injury has come just at the right time, and the attacking midfielder should provide a big boost for the Stones in this final quarter.
23 year old Ashley Charles has shown his quality and versatility this season, featuring in a multitude of roles. The Grenadan international has played the majority of the season in midfield, providing energy and real grit, but most recently he featured at right back due to defensive injuries. Charles is involved in 6.59 defensive duels per 90, as the young midfielder looks to get stuck into tackles, shielding the backline. He wins an immense 69.27% of these defensive duels, a ridiculously high number for a central midfielder. He’s got quality on the ball too, completing 84.23% of his passes, of which he has played over 1000 already. He’s an extremely well rounded midfielder and certainly a talent to look out for, especially as he’s only 23.
Woking
What a season it has been for Woking. They continue to rise up the table, sitting a further place higher than they did last time. They currently sit in 3rd place, and have a 6 point lead over the sides below them, albeit having played a game more. They continue to surpass expectations, and their goal must now be to ensure they secure that 3rd spot and with it a home tie in the playoffs. They have the 3rd best goal difference in the league, 22, and they have been especially strong away from home, where they have the 3rd best record in the league. We mentioned it in our last report, but in any other season Woking would be genuine title contenders. They are unlucky to have come up against 2 excellent sides this term, but if Darren Sarll continues to lead his side in the way he is, they will fancy their chances of causing an upset in the playoffs.
There’s no doubting the credentials of Darren Sarll. The 40 year old coach continues to get the best out of his side, and leads them on a genuine playoff charge. He has cultivated an extremely well balanced side, one who are good in both phases of play. He was the first manager to take points off of Wrexham at the Racecourse, and with just 2 defeats in 12 games it’s clear Woking are on the right track. His side have scored the 4th most goals, 59, and rank 5th for xG, 54.11, suggesting they are scoring at around the rate you would expect; it’s sustainable. They also have the 3rd lowest xG against, 31.59, suggesting they concede very few high quality chances. This is actually 5.41 less than they have actually conceded, which perhaps signals they will start to tighten up even more at the back soon too. A real candidate for manager of the season, Sarll has surpassed expectations massively.
One of the most underrated players in the league is Woking captain Josh Casey. The 31 year old has been an ever present this season, putting in solid display after display in the left back role. Casey has an excellent set piece delivery, his wand of a left foot putting many a dangerous delivery into the box. This has provided him with 5 assists so far this campaign, a tally you’d expect him to improve upon by the end of the season. Down the left hand side he has developed a good understanding with James Daly, with the 2 combining to devastating effect at times. He’s also excellent when the defensive side of the game is called into action. Casey has won 63.93% of his defensive duels, an impressive number for a full back. Underrated, Casey deserves more recognition for the work he has done from left back this season.
Woking have a plethora of attacking talent. Rhys Browne, Reece Grego-Cox and James Daly all have 8 goals or more this term, while new signing Marcus Dackers has 2 in his last 3 games. But one man who is sometimes overlooked is Padraig Amond, who has had another excellent season at this level. The 35 year old joined in the summer, and he’s the only member of Woking’s side to have featured in every single game this season. He has used his vast experience to great effect this season, with his clever movement and reading of the game unlocking defences. Amond has 9 goals and 7 assists, meaning he is in the top 10 for goal involvements this season. He is a deadly finisher, as he has shown over the years, but the amount of goals he has provided has been impressive. He is an experienced operator, and will help Woking get over the line this season.
In midfield Rohan Ince continues to show why he’s one of the finest players in the league. The 30 year old powerhouse has 4 goals from the middle of the park, but it’s his general influence and control that impresses most. At 6ft3 Ince is a real presence in the middle, and only left back Casey has played more passes than Ince for this Woking side. He’s crucial in the way they build up, with his range of passing allowing him to pick out their array of attacking talent. Ince is a real destroyer too, using his superb physicality to break up play. He’s won a staggering 70.12% of his defensive duels, which for a midfielder is absurdly high. He’s also involved in the 12th most defensive duels in the league, and is such a well rounded player.
Wrexham
Welsh outfit Wrexham have not only been the best team of the quarter, but as the league table signals, the best team of the entire season too. Wrexham are simply relentless, and are currently 1 point clear of title rivals Notts County, with a game in hand. They’ve scored the 2nd most in the league, conceded the 3rd fewest, and have an unrelenting approach to games. They also went on a wonderful FA Cup run, finally succumbing in the replay to Sheffield United, showing their ability to compete on all fronts. Of course, they are well backed, but their achievements are impressive nonetheless. They have the 2nd highest xG, 66.3, 2nd lowest xG against, 27.94, and crucially have the most points. Their direct style can demolish sides, and they simply seem to have too much quality when they come up against sides at this level. Wrexham are almost certain to finally be in the EFL next season, whether that be with the title, which is now in their hands, or through the playoffs.
Phil Parkinson has had his critics, but nobody can deny the amazing job he has done this season. Since the 10th of December 2022 Wrexham have dropped just 2 points in the league, a draw with 3rd place Woking. Parkinson has led his side on a 21 game unbeaten run, with their last taste of defeat away to title rivals Notts. They have already avenged their only other loss of the season, against Chesterfield, and Parkinson deserves huge amount of credit for this. He has got his star studded side to play as a team, a more difficult task than some might imagine, and he has found a style that produces results. They are direct, quick, powerful, and simply have too much for most sides. Parkinson has maximised set pieces too, recognising their importance in the game. Yet another promotion awaits the hugely successful manager, and he will be confident he can take his side over the line in this tense title race.
You can’t talk about Wrexham and not talk about Paul Mullin. In any other season he would be running away with the top scorer race, 27 goals by the end of February a remarkable achievement. He’s been involved in the 2nd most goals in the division, and on his day he is simply unplayable. There have been rumours of a Wales call up, and it’s easy to see why, with the in form forward finding the net 0.77 times per 90. 9 of these goals have been from the penalty spot, but Mullin is a ruthless finisher. He’s a true predator, smelling weakness in the opposition backline, and often finding ways to exploit it. An explosive runner, Mullin is a crucial cog in this Wrexham machine. He could be the man to lead them to the title.
The emergence of Sam Dalby in this 3rd quarter has been impressive. The 23 year old striker was almost surplus to requirements, but of late he has really hit form. 4 goals in his last 6 games has seen the young forward dislodge Ollie Palmer as Mullin’s strike partner. When you consider Palmer cost the club £300,000, Dalby’s achievements seem even more impressive. Dalby is a big forward, one with an incredible leap, and he’s come up big for the side when needed. He scored 0.74 goals per 90, just 0.03 less than Mullin, a really impressive record. Hitting form down the straight of a title race is perfect timing, so expect to see Dalby’s name on the scoresheets several more times this season.
Extremely talented midfielder Elliot Lee has starred for Wrexham this season, and has been especially impressive as of late. Parkinson finally found a way to incorporate him into the side, in a free role to the left of the midfield 3. This allows him to drift forward and find pockets of space on the edge of the area, cutting onto his favoured right foot. You can tell that Lee has plied his trade in the EFL for the vast majority of his career, playing 34 games in League One just last season. Lee is another player who is hitting form just at the right time, with 2 goals in as many games punctuating his high performance level. He will be crucial in Wrexham’s title bid, and the quality he does have could see him win games on his own.
Yeovil Town
Despite the fact Yeovil have the joint 5th tightest defence in the league they are in real danger of relegation. They sit just 1 point above the drop, thanks to a point deduction at Gateshead, with a drop in division a real prospect. This is due to one thing; they simply don’t score enough goals. Yeovil have put the ball in the net the fewest times this season, on just 28 occasions. They are the only side not to have reached the 30 goal mark. Their woes in front of goal is what has cost them, and their fans will have seen the fewest goals of any side this season. It’s hardly entertaining football, which wouldn’t be an issue if it was bringing success. They’ve won just 6 games all season, hardly surprising, as goals win you games; only Maidstone have won fewer. Yeovil have played the fewest amount of games however, so they have 14 huge games to ensure they are playing in the National League next season. You feel they will have to score more goals in order to do that though.
Mark Cooper was considered a real coup when he was appointed, and while he’s done a good job considering the circumstances, he has been under pressure in recent weeks. He’s looked tired in post match interviews, and with off the field issues beginning to materialise too Cooper faces a very tough final quarter of the season. As expected, Cooper has got his side organised. He’s made them tough to beat; they’ve lost the fewest games of any 10th or lower, and they’ve actually lost the same number as Barnet in 4th and less than Eastleigh in 6th. His side however, simply don’t win enough. 15 draws is more than any other side in the league, and he needs to turn more of those into wins to stand a chance of staying up. Cooper has used a mix of a 4 and 5 man defence, both with similar results, but it is the latter that stopped a 3 game losing run, getting a 1-1 draw away at Altrincham last time out.
Yeovil’s star man has undoubtedly been their keeper Grant Smith. He’s had a ridiculously good season, and has kept his side in with a chance of staying up. He’s conceded just 37, despite facing an xG against of 50.61, a massive over performance. Smith has made 114 saves, 5th most in the league, and already 17 more than he made in the entirety of last season. He has an exceptional save percentage of 75.49%, and the 29 year old stopper has made a real impression this term. Smith won’t be short of suitors, but he will be determined in the final quarter to ensure Yeovil are still in the league next season.
The permanent signing of Jordan Maguire-Drew from Grimsby seems to be an inspired one, and a step in the right direction in terms of scoring goals. The 25 year old won promotion last season, but finds himself in a very different situation this term. He’s made an instant impact though, scoring 3 goals in 9 games, an impressive return for a misfiring side. He’s also got an assist to his name, meaning he averages a goal involvement every 156 minutes, very impressive indeed. There’s an argument that Maguire-Drew has the best left foot in the league. He has real craft and quality, and he’s added flair to a side that sorely lacked it. He’s such a creative spark, playing 1.55 smart passes per 90; only Ruben Rodrigues of Notts plays more. He may be the difference maker, and if he can play anywhere near his best he may be the spark they’ve been missing.
When you’re a side that soak up pressure and like to play on the break pace is absolutely crucial. And pace is exactly what Andrew Oluwabori has. The Peterborough loanee has impressed this season, with his blistering pace allowing his side to transition quickly from defence into attack. Oluwabori has 2 goals in 13 games, including an audacious chip against Notts County. Oluwabori is versatile too, with the ability to play on either flank, behind the striker, as the lone forward or even at wing back if needed. He’s likely to feature heavily in their run in, and even if he is an injection of pace from the bench, he will be an important part of their survival effort.
York City
York’s slide down the table is a concerning one. They are currently just 3 points clear of the drop, and while they are a side rarely mentioned when it comes to teams in trouble, there is a real chance they could go down. They are the other side, along with Dagenham, to be currently without a manager, and that lack of direction has seen them struggle immensely. The experiment that was David Webb failed miserably. We said he was a ‘risky appointment’ in our Q2 Report, and he proved to be exactly that. In his 9 matches in charge of York he won just 2, falling to 5 defeats, something which left the higher ups with very little choice. They looked lost, and still have inconsistencies in their game despite his dismissal. York have played a game more than other sides down the bottom too, so are in real danger of being dragged into it. 7 of their final 12 games are against sides currently in the top 11 as well, so it doesn’t look like it’s going to be an easy final quarter.
As mentioned, York are currently managerless, and have been for nearly a month now. It remains to be seen who will be appointed, but you feel they will have to act soon. It has to be said that the decision to sack John Askey is becoming even more bizarre as time goes on. Some York fans had hoped the club would make a move for Askey again, but a return has been ruled out now that he is in charge of League 2
Watford loanee Shaqai Forde has 5 goals in 8 games for York, as the 18 year old made a blistering start to life in Yorkshire. That included a hat trick on debut against Maidstone, some way to make an impression. These goalscoring exploits have given the young striker one of the best goal to game ratios in the league. Forde nets 0.78 goals per 90, 0.01 better than Wrexham’s Paul Mullin. This may not be sustainable, as Forde’s xG per 90 is just 0.29, but even so it’s as impressive start to a season as you’re likely to see. His goals may be crucial
Another forward who has been in decent scoring form is captain Lenell John-Lewis. The man nicknamed ‘The Shop’ has 11 goals to his name this term, 28.2% of York’s goals. A powerful forward, John-Lewis is crucial to the way York attack. He leads the line, and uses his experience to his advantage. York look a much less threatening side without him. John-Lewis has an xG of 13.51, which means he is currently underperforming in front of goal. This suggests that the big forward is due to score even more goals soon, something which will be a big boost to York fans. A leader on and off the pitch, John-Lewis is sure to be vital if York are dragged into a relegation battle.
Dan Pybus has played more games than any other York City player, showing what an ever present he has been this season for them. He’s broken up play in midfield, being involved in more defensive duels than any other player. He’s also played the 6th most passes in the league, showing how active he is in all phases of play. He is central to everything York do, and you cannot criticise Pybus’ effort. He’s a tireless runner, providing so much energy in that midfield. He will work incredibly hard, and put his all into keeping York out of trouble.
Moving onto the data now and first off a quick look at some of the attacking stats.
The tables above show us the shots per 90 minutes for the season so far.
As expected Wrexham and Notts Co average the most goal attempts per 90 minutes, and despite a drop in results this quarter Chesterfields earlier season form means they still average highly on shots per 90. However, when it comes to SoT% (below) Chesterfield's shot accuracy drops, indicative of some of the issues they've been having of late.
A mention of Altrincham wouldn't go amiss, not only creating a high number of chances but are the leagues sharp shooters so far with the highest level of accuracy.
Also, Oldham create the third worst amount of chances in the league but score highly for shot accuracy, just behind Altrincham.
Next we can look at how these shots have affected the goal scoring metrics.
Again, as would be expected, Notts County and Wrexham both creating the highest value chances with Southend and Woking both posting relatively high xG averages per 90.
Despite recording league average stats for shots per 90, Dorking's demise is further compounded by the fact the chances they are creating have the lowest xG value in the league at just 0.99 per 90.
Notts County have an average xG 2.05 per 90 and are averaging 2.35 goals per 90 so scoring slightly higher than expected. Wrexham on the other hand are scoring 0.43 more goals per 90 than their xG per 90, that's equivalent to scoring 13 goals more than expected for the season providing some insight into how they find themselves top of the table.
Barnet continue to massively out perform their xG scoring 0.57 goals more than their xG per 90 minutes, that's an incredible 18 goals more than expected.
Moving onto the defensive stats now and we mentioned above about Dorking struggling in attack, well as we can see from below they now invite the most shots on their goal in the league at 14.07. This is just 0.05 more than Torquay.
At the other end Notts County continue to lead the way when it comes to keeping shots at bay, restricting opponents to just 6.44 attempts on goal per 90 minutes. This will also be a by product of Luke Williams' possession based style of play.
Equally both Woking and Southend are proving to be difficult to find scoring opportunities against.
In the last report Wrexham had the best defence conceding just 0.75 goals per 90, however, that figure has jumped slightly to 0.86 per 90 meaning Notts County and Boreham Wood leapfrog Wrexham, but only by a very small margin, in fact there's nothing really to separate the top half dozen defences confirming just how competitive the league has been this season.
Next we'll have a quick look at how the xG data has impacted xPTS compared to actual points per game.
The table below represents the difference in PPG for Q3 compared to where the numbers sat at the end of Q2.
Boreham Wood are the big movers in this quarter increasing their PPG by an incredible 1.31 having only recorded 0.60 PPG in Q2.
Oldham and Eastleigh have both made positive steps in the league and this is confirmed by both increasing their PPG by over 1 point.
We've already discussed Chesterfield's fall from grace this quarter and we can see this is clearly indicated by the fact their PPG has dropped by a massive 1.61.
Scunthorpe can take some hope from the fact they have increased their PPG this quarter which has seen them step off the foot of the table. However, Torquay, York and Gateshead have all also seen improvements this period.
This next table shows expected points per game (xPPG) for Q3 compared to Q2.
Halifax recorded 0.58 xPPG more than their actual points for this period. A clear indication of not being clinical enough in front of goal. If they had managed to match their xPPG they would currently be 3 places higher in the league than they currently are.
Also, a big drop this period for Neal Ardley's Solihull who started the season well and would have been most peoples choice for at least a play-off place.
So what does that all mean when it comes to the current standings?
Below is the National League table as of 28th February 2023. The second column shows a clubs change in league position since our first report.
Notts County held top spot for much of this period, however defeat at home to Dagenham has opened the door for Wrexham who now have top spot by a point and with a game in hand meaning the title is now theirs to lose. As a certain BT Sport pundit might say, "Good luck shifting them now!".
Barnet and Woking both move up a place with Chesterfield dropping to 5th from 3rd.
Eastleigh's good recent form see's them jumping 5 places to 6th with Southend and Boreham Wood close on their heels.
Oldham have seen the biggest gains in league position moving up an impressive 7 places since the end of Q2.
At the other end of the table Dorking 6 places and Maidstone 4 places have suffered the worst along with Solihull, 6 places, who go from play-off contenders to mid-table obscurity.
That takes us nicely onto players and our National League best XI for this period.
This time we set up with a 4-3-1-2 formation as opposed to the 3-4-1-2 for Q2.
We’ve selected players from the list based on performances, but also in keeping with our approach to football statistics. We’ve tried to eliminate bias by using quantitative data to ensure we are selecting players on merit.
Goalkeeper - Grant Smith - Yeovil
This man is single handedly keeping Yeovil above the precipice. He has a save percentage of 75.49%, a ridiculously high level across 33 games. He’s an excellent shot stopper, one of the best in the division, and he’s conceded just 1.05 goals per 90, one of the lowest in the division. When you consider where Yeovil are in the table and the level of Smith’s performances, he has been the stand out keeper of the 3rd quarter.
Right Back - Gus Scott-Morriss - Southend
Scott-Morriss has been at the heart of Southend’s resurgence, showing character both on and off the pitch. The 25 year old is often seen bombing forwards from right back, providing real threat in the opposition box. He’s scored 4 goals, all headers, and is solid defensively too. A tireless runner and hard grafter, Scott-Morriss has helped put Southend in a really strong position heading into the playoff run in.
Centre Back - Will Evans - Boreham Wood
At the heart of the tightest defence in the league, Will Evans has been excellent this season. A player that often goes under the radar, Evans has been crucial in a side that have lost the 3rd fewest games this season. Strong in the tackle and an experienced operator, Evans has had a strong 3rd Quarter and merits his place here.
Centre Back - Ben Tozer - Wrexham
No defender has won more games in this quarter than Ben Tozer, with the 33 year old seeing his side drop just 2 points. Tozer plays at the heart of the Wrexham defence, and is crucial to the way they build from the back and the way they defend too. He is a key part of the 3rd tightest defence in the league, and of course his long throws, which cause havoc in opposition boxes, deserve a mention too.
Left Back - Josh Casey - Woking
One of the most underrated players in the league, Casey is captain of a side who sit in 3rd place, and both his leadership and his performances have played a big part in this. A wonderful set piece taker, Casey has 5 assists to his name from left back. He’s a strong one on one defender too, crucial in a side that plays a back 4. He should now lead his side to a playoff place, and his selection here is a testament to his excellent body of work this season.
Right Centre Mid - Rohan Ince
A central part of a Woking side who sit 3rd in the table, Ince adds power, strength and wonderful passing range to any side he plays a part in. You can tell he’s played at a higher level before, as the 30 year old simply oozes quality. He’s a joy to watch in possession, and a frightening prospect to face out of it. He breaks up play for Darren Sarll’s side and offers an all round game that is levels above this league.
Central Centre Mid - Matty Palmer - Notts County
No player has played more passes than midfield maestro Matty Palmer. He is also the league’s most accurate passer, and there is an argument that he is the best midfielder in the league. He’s certainly the one who can exert the most control over games, constantly keeping Notts ticking over. He has a wonderful range of passing too, something his 3 assists evidence.
Left Centre Mid - Elliot Lee - Wrexham
He’s had a wonderful 3rd Quarter, with the magician finally nailed on as a starter at Wrexham. He had a slow start to life in Wales, but he has really kicked on of late, with 2 goals in 2 games highlighting this. In the free role Parkinson has given him he has flourished, allowing him to get forward and influence the action. 7 goals and 6 assists from midfield cannot be overlooked, especially his last goal against Chesterfield, a beauty of a finish.
Attacking Midfield - Ruben Rodrigues
He’s had a great season, but this quarter has been another level from the Portuguese midfielder. He ranks 3rd for goal contributions in the league, behind only the front 2 in this team. 14 goals and 10 assists is just ridiculous, and there’s a good chance he could reach 20 goals by the end of the season. He’s also by far the most creative player in the division, as the stats show, covered earlier in the report. An excellent player having an excellent season, he walks into this side.
Striker - Macaulay Langstaff - Notts County
For the 3rd Report in a row our front 2 are the same. It’s hardly surprising though, as they cannot stop scoring. Langstaff is the division’s top scorer with 32 goals, 7 of which have come in his last 4 games. It’s a ridiculous goalscoring run, one that could lead him to becoming a record breaker. He is 8 away from breaking the club record and 9 away from breaking the league record, and with 11 games to play he has a chance of doing so. He is the division’s best goalscorer, and nobody can argue with his inclusion.
Striker - Paul Mullin - Wrexham
His striker partner in this side isn’t that far off. 27 league goals at this stage would normally mean you were the top scorer, and Paul Mullin’s season has been nothing short of ridiculous. A powerful striker who always seems to pop up in the big moments, Mullin’s season has caught the eye of the mainstream media, and for good reason. He has been one of the best players in the league and fully merits his place here.
Subs:
Centre Back - Corey Panter - Eastleigh
Only 4 sides have conceded fewer goals than Eastleigh this season, and Corey Panter is right at the heart of that. His return from injury also coincided with their rise up the table, and the 22 year old has been a key part of a side now in 6th place. Excellent on the ball, Panter is a progressive defender. He’s solid defensively too, and covers both centre back and left back on the bench.
Wing Back - Adam Chicksen - Notts County
The Zimbabwean international was in the first XI in our last report, and even though he’s dropped to the bench here he’s still had an excellent quarter. He scored the winner against Chesterfield, continuing his goal scoring exploits, bringing his total to 9 for the season. He’s also been part of a defence that has conceded just 32 goals, and he’s played a key part in that success.
Midfielder - Cav Miley - Southend
Another player that has dropped to the bench from our last XI, Miley has still had an excellent quarter. He’s been involved in the 2nd most defensive duels in the league, has played the 16th most passes and has been a key part of a Southend side that are on the march. He has 3 assists from holding midfield, and his energy in midfield has driven Southend on this season.
Midfielder - Ryan De Havilland - Barnet
22 year old De Havilland just keeps improving, and has arguably had his best Quarter yet. He has 12 goal involvements, an impressive return for such a young player, and he’s potentially the most eye catching player in a Bees side who are right in the mix at the top. He’s versatile too, being able to play in almost all midfield and forward roles, making him a great option off the bench.
Striker - Sam Dalby - Wrexham
As far as quarters go, they don’t get much better than Sam Dalby’s. He’s forced his way into the side at the top of the table, scoring numerous goals along the way, several of which have been important. He now has one of the best goal ratios in the league, scoring 0.74 goals per 90, and the physical striker has really impressed. 4 goals in his last 6 is an excellent record, and he is one of the most in form forwards in the division.
Manager - Phil Parkinson - Wrexham
He might have the best squad on paper in the league, but the results he has delivered have been astounding. Just 2 points dropped in the quarter, a draw against 3rd place, has seen his side rise up to first place. They also now have the title race in their hands, and can even afford to lose the game against Notts and still stay in front. He’s done brilliantly to navigate a tricky fixture list, and the mentality they have shown, scoring late goals, comes from the top. Parkinson has done brilliantly this season, and this quarter in particular has been one his side can be proud of. That’s why we’ve gone for the Wrexham manager as our Q3 Top Boss.
Hover or click players for more info:
Closing Thoughts
In both our previous reports we suggested Notts County and Wrexham would pull away from the rest of the chasing pack which is exactly what has happened in sensational fashion. At the time of writing there was a massive 19 points between Notts in 2nd and Woking in 3rd place.
We had also previously discussed concerns over Chesterfield and unfortunately for the Spireites, as predicted, they've had a quarter to forget.
The data also suggested that Bromley and Boreham Wood would be firmly entrenched in the play-off places and despite both clubs currently just sitting outside the top 7 it would be wrong to suggest they won't have a part to play in the race for play-off spots.
Woking maintained their improved form and sit comfortably in 3rd place but with a resurgent Barnet hot on their tails.
Wealdstone looked like they might challenge for the play-off's but still find themselves in mid-table form but comfortable.
Oldham have surged up the table in this quarter and it's difficult to see them not continuing in the same vein for the remaining dozen or so games.
It's difficult not to see anything other than Dorking dropping into the relegation places and you could be forgiven for suggesting Maidstone's fate is already cast in stone.
Scunthorpe, Torquay and Yeovil have all rallied but will find themselves entrenched in a relegation battle that could also include York. Meanwhile, a few decent results for Aldershot should see them do just enough to stay clear of the relegation bun fight.
At the top it looks like a race to the death between current leaders Wrexham and Luke Williams' Notts County. Wrexham seem to be able to grind out the points regardless of performance, almost bulldozering opponents into submission in the process whereas Notts County will continue to play their possession based passing game and much will depend on the pairs meeting at the Racecourse Ground on Easter Monday. Whatever happens it's going to be one hell of a run in with so many teams involved in promotion, play-off and relegation battles.
That pretty much wraps up our National League Q3 report. As always tremendous amount of work has gone into these reports, work that we feel provides quite possibly the most comprehensive data led analysis of the National League available.
All that remains is to thank you for reading and we would love to hear your thoughts and any feedback, simply reach out to us on twitter or use the comments section below.
Your Notts County Stats Team:
Richard - @notts_stats
Tom - @tomhwilliams23
Colin - @Colin_Sisson
Data: Wyscout
Contributing Partner: Analysts Bar