It's second at home to first in League Two this weekend and with a big crowd expected, including over 2,500 from Nottingham we can look forward to what should be an enthralling encounter. NCS analysts Tom and Richard run the rule over Graham Alexander's team, his tactics and key players.
MK boss Alexander has set his side up in a rigid 3-4-1-2 formation so far this season, with the midfield 2 screening a narrow and flat back 3. While their shape on paper may look similar to Notts, in practice it is very different. The role of the midfield 2 is to break up play, rather than start it. Their wing backs stay wide like Notts’, but their front 3 is very different.
The midfielder behind the 2 forwards is much deeper, playing more as an 8 ahead of the 2 holding midfielders, rather than being a link man for the forwards, who themselves are given plenty of licence to play with attacking freedom. But it’s the back 3 which looks the most different. Unlike Notts, they are a narrow, compact defensive 3, with the middle CB staying in line rather than dropping deeper, like Brindley has done for Notts this season. At the heart of this back 3 is 23 year old Jack Tucker, who has had a strong start to the season. An aerial presence at 6’4”, Tucker has started all 6 of MK Dons League games so far. Tucker plays the role of distributor, launching attacks with his range of passing; he has played the most accurate long balls of any MK Dons player, 7.2, 4th most in the entire division. He is often used to bypass the building phases of play, looking to hit the MK Dons front 2 with a long pass. This may be something they look to use this weekend, looking for the long ball to catch Notts out in the defensive transitions, something Notts have struggled with at various points this season.
One of MK Dons’ underrated attacking options is actually right wing back Cameron Norman. A physical specimen, standing at 6’3”, Norman has the pace and power to match his large frame, and could be a real menace down their right hand side. Jodi Jones missing due to international duty is obviously a blow, but in a game where one of their main attacking outlets comes down the right, it may actually be something of a blessing in disguise that the more defensively minded wingback Adam Chicksen is likely to start. Norman was an option touted for a move to the division above, after impressing for Newport County in 22/23. But the pull of Graham Alexander meant he ended up at Stadium MK. As well as his obvious physical gifts, Norman is a tireless runner, one who works really hard to get up and down the right flank. He’s a strong crosser of the ball, and without having Jodi Jones to worry about coming the other way, Norman may have more licence to attack down his flank.
Alexander also has several options up top. The deadline day acquisition of Ellis Harrison from Port Vale has given their front line an extra dimension. Harrison might not be the biggest forward, but he is extremely physical. He will provide Alexander’s side with a real focal point, with the other forwards playing off of him. MK Dons needed a target man, and in Harrison they have got it. His hold up play is one of his strengths, but it will be interesting to see what his inclusion means for the way MK Dons line up. Some of their fans are under the impression that Alexander will field 3 forwards, with Harrison in the middle, with Jonathan Leko and Mo Eisa playing off him either side. This could pose some real issues for Notts, not least that they will go man to man with the Notts back 3, but also that Harrison will be competing with Richard Brindley. However, it could present opportunities elsewhere; they will persist with their 5 at the back shape, so the natural place to lose a player would be in midfield. There are question marks over whether MK Dons have the necessary legs in midfield to operate with just 2, and while they’ve used a 2 man midfield to screen the back 3, it may leave them overrun in the middle of the park. Notts use 3 or 4 players in the centre, so it could be an area where the Magpies have a numerical advantage.
The main threat from MK Dons is their front 2, Jonathan Leko and Mo Eisa. Eisa missed their last game, being an unused substitute, and it remains unclear if he will return for this one, but Notts will be hoping that he won’t. Eisa is a tricky forward, one who is a strong finisher, with 4 goals to his name already. He hit double figures in League 1 last season, despite MK Dons being relegated, and he hit 12 in the season before that at the same level too. Clearly he’s a goalscorer who is proven at a much higher level, and his quick, tricky feet and acceleration underpin his game. His striker partner, Jonathan Leko, is similar in his skillset, albeit the 24 year old has mainly played as a wideman throughout his career. His role as a winger was mainly due to his excellent dribbling ability. Leko is quick, extremely direct, and loves to run at defences. He ranks 2nd for dribbles per 90, 8.63, just showing how much he loves to run with the ball at his feet. Leko has 3 goals so far this campaign, and has the ability to create a chance out of nothing. He’s another powerful forward too; he stands at 6’0”, and is extremely fast too, making him a physical presence to deal with. Leko was a highly rated prospect when coming through at West Brom, and the biggest indicator of his quality is that he has never played below League 1 level before, and has played over 80 Championship games, and 14 in the Premier League too. He has bags of ability, and you can understand why MK Dons sometimes rely on his individual brilliance to dig them out of a hole.
But it is this reliance which has become a problem for Alexander; it’s become something of an over reliance. Despite having 7 goals between them and a further 2 assists, meaning they are involved in 69% of their total goals, the pair have a combined xG of just 3.99. Simply put, they are out performing what is expected of them, and while Leko and Eisa have the ability to create goals for themselves, over the course of the season they will need the rest of the side to consistently create chances for their front pairing. It’s not just those 2 who are out performing their xG numbers though; the side as a whole are 5.88 above their total expected goals. While this could just be them being ruthless in front of goal, there is the feeling that they lack a little bit of creativity, and while adding another outlet up top will give them another option, it remains to be seen if their midfield pairing has the requisite ingenuity to create regular chances for their forwards.
Looking at the odds the bookies are hedging their bets a bit and the best outright odds at time of writing (Oddspedia) are 9/5 for a home win, 7/5 for a Notts win and 57/20 for the draw. Based on these odds (Oddspedia) the result probability calculates to 35.71% for a MK Dons win, 41.67% for a Notts win and 74.02% for the draw.
Update: Since writing it has been suggested that a couple of the key players mentioned for MK Dons could be out with injury.
Important Note: Betting odds and score predictions are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. NCS News do not receive any remittance from gambling organisations. We also understand that for some people gambling can have a harmful impact. If you are concerned about the way you gamble please seek advice here Be Gamble Aware