Pressure is on Ian Dawes from the Tranmere faithful, and while, when looking at the underlying data, this might be unjustified, it’s something Notts must look to take advantage of.
Tranmere are not playing like a side with confidence at the moment; and with a vocal support on their back, it’s only a matter of time before individual mistakes begin to creep into their game.
Dawes has operated with a very fluid shape so far, one that has often resembled almost a hybrid between 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 and at times a lopsided 4-4-2 when either the left winger or attacking midfielder pushes on alongside the lone forward. However, out of possession they very much resemble a 4-2-3-1 shape, with tight spacing between the lines, allowing the midfield 2 to screen the back 4, while the wingers stay wide, but track back to mark the opposition full backs. The centre forward, most commonly Luke Norris, leads the line from a defensive point of view, pressing the opposition backline when out of possession. However, their press isn’t particularly aggressive; Salford found no issue playing out from the back, with keeper Cairns picking up similar positions to Aidan Stone, and always finding a passing option due to the lack of numbers committed to Tranmere’s press.
This fluid system allows Dawes to play three centre forwards, as well as allowing for the pace and trickery of teenager Sam Taylor. Connor Jennings, Kristian Dennis and Luke Norris are all experienced forwards who thrive from crosses into the box, and this is what Tranmere’s game plan is all about. Either Taylor drifting wide on the right, or Hendry drifting wide on the left, as well as the supporting full backs making overlapping runs. From these wide zones their plan is to get the ball into the box as much as possible, providing good aerial service for their three threats. It provides a unique and intriguing tactic within the box; often defenders are unable to pick up all three forwards due to the sheer number of them. It also allows one of them to stay centrally, occupying the opposition defenders, freeing up the other two to take up positions in the spaces in the box, allowing for good service to find them.
Tranmere’s key threats are players Notts fans will be familiar with, for very different reasons. Former Magpie Kristian Dennis is fondly remembered at Meadow Lane, and will make his return this weekend. He’s fresh off the back of a 20 goal season, which saw Carlisle promoted from this level. He’s off the mark this season too, scoring in their 4-3 defeat last weekend at home to Salford. He’s a clever striker, one who comes alive in the box; we cannot afford to give Dennis chances, or we may be punished. Dennis has played as a slightly more withdrawn forward, what could be described as a 10, but his goal at the weekend showed his willingness to still attack the box.
Another man who is no stranger to Notts is Connor Jennings, another versatile forward who has most commonly attacked from the left, coming inside, and has a goal and an assist to his name already this season. He will be motivated this weekend, not least because he has form for scoring against the Magpies; in our last season in the EFL, Jennings scored in both of our league meetings with Tranmere. He’s perhaps not as physical as he once was, with him now being 31, but he’s still a danger, and can pop up in a variety of positions. Perhaps most incredibly is that Jennings left Tranmere in 2020, but returned this summer, just in time for us to face Rovers in the Football League once again.
Tranmere are known for their full backs, but they lost their starting pair this summer, with Josh Cogley joining League 1 title favourites Bolton, and left back Ethan Bristow making a big move to MLS side Minnesota United. They’ve promoted Irish full back Lee O’Connor at right back, where he deputised last season, and they’ve added Jake Leake on loan from Hull on the other side. While Leake arrived with much expectation, after a strong loan with Scunthorpe in the National League last season, he’s so far failed to impress, and if anything has looked something of a weak link at the back. There is a feeling that they have had a significant drop off in quality at full back, which has not only altered the way they defend, but also the way they build up too. The full backs were a big part of Tranmere’s game last season, and are no longer of the required level this term.
This presents an opportunity for Notts to exploit Tranmere in the wide areas. This should be music to Notts fans’ ears, considering all 3 goals came from wide areas at the weekend. Whether Luke Williams persists with Sam Austin remains to be seen, but Aaron Nemane could be a good choice down the right hand side in order to get at Leake, their perceived chink in the armour. Jodi Jones is likely to keep his place on the left, and he has shown both individual skill and quality delivery already this season. With the wide centre backs pushed high, and either the 8s or the 10s also drifting into those wide zones, Notts will have the chance to overload Tranmere’s wing backs. And when you consider these could be the weak points of their side, it presents an opportunity you feel Notts must look to exploit this weekend.
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Salford’s opener at the weekend came down Tranmere’s left flank. It was a fairly simple move, with Leake struggling to keep up with his opposite number. Once at the byline he found a cutback extremely easy and obvious, as Tranmere’s defence had failed to pick up on the lateral movement of Smith, who was allowed to peel away from his marker, meaning he was in acres of space for the finish. The goal itself was well worked, but from a Tranmere point of view, the lack of awareness defensively was concerning.
In truth, Tranmere have this issue all over the pitch; they have quality, but don’t have the energy levels to match. This is none more evident than in midfield, where Regan Hendry ranks 2nd for Expected Assists, underlining the quality of his passing. However, he perhaps lacks the necessary legs to get up and down the pitch, and he certainly doesn’t possess the requisite energy levels to get back once he’s pushed on to create. As such, the midfield battle could be one Notts look to win with energy rather than quality. And for all of their ability on the ball, Palmer and Bostock are underrated when it comes to their midfield mobility. Bostock is an excellent athlete, destructive and strong, while Palmer is able to cover a lot of ground, never struggling to get to either box. Add in the energy and persistence of O’Brien, and Notts should have the tools to control the midfield at the weekend.
To their credit, Tranmere did keep a compact shape at the weekend. They defended deep, had good positioning between the lines, and remained narrow and compact. This did mean Salford were able to manoeuvre them from side to side with quick switches, something Notts could look to utilise to get the wing backs into the game. They also looked an efficient side from set pieces, an area where Notts seem to struggle from defensively. They scored 2 of their 3 goals at the weekend from set plays, and they look organised and tough when going forward from dead ball scenarios. They possess a long throw down the left hand side, through Leake, a set play they scored from in their 3-0 win over Harrogate. Regan Hendry also has a good left footed set piece delivery, offering them a variety of threats going forward.
When it comes to looking at how this game will finish you have to fancy that Notts, on current form and playing at home would come out on top and it seems the bookies agree.
At the time of writing Notts were 6/10 outright favourites, with Tranmere at 19/4 for the away win and 10/3 for the draw. These odds do seem very generous for both a Tranmere win and a draw as based on these numbers the win % probabilities are Notts 62.50%, Tranmere 17.39% and 23.08% for the draw. Whilst we feel Notts will have the edge we also acknowledge Tranmere are just a few tweaks away from a run of good results and with this in mind fully expect Ian Dawes and his team to provide stern resistance to the Magpies attacking flair.
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