It will have been 18 days since Notts were last in league action when they welcome Halifax this weekend, during which time they lost top spot. The clash with the Shaymen gives them a prime opportunity to return to the top as Wrexham play in the FA Cup, meaning a win by 3 goals would see the Magpies return to the summit.
A win by 3 goals is exactly how Notts did in the return fixture earlier this season, a rare Kairo Mitchell goal sealing Notts’ first league victory at the Shay since 2019. In truth, the Magpies looked a class above on that occasion, but Halifax have improved under Chris Millington since that showing. Before that meeting they were yet to win a game, but have since secured 9 wins, which leaves them in the lower reaches of mid table.
While frustration will have been high amongst the Notts fanbase after back to back postponements, some positives, as Luke Williams eluded to himself, can be taken from the break. The players have got a well earned rest, and it may combat the fatigue we showed in our draw with Boreham Wood two weeks ago. It also means that the squad will be slightly larger, as players get closer to returning from injury. Luke Williams will have more options to choose from, which can only be a good thing.
This is only aided by the fact that Halifax played on Wednesday night. So while Notts have had a prolonged period on the sidelines, Halifax will have just 2 days to recover before travelling to Meadow Lane. Therefore, the Magpies should have a significant edge physically, and as long as they haven’t lost too much match sharpness they should be on top.
Halifax are a side who are in a real slump. The Shaymen are a very streaky side, going on runs of 4 or 5 games where they look impressive, before going on another run where they look a shadow of that side. They are currently on the latter, winless in 4 games, picking up 1 point from a possible 12 in that time. This is a sharp downturn in form for the Shaymen, who had won 13 points from the previous 18 available, just highlighting the inconsistency of their form.
Notts should really be looking to take advantage of a side on the slide. They have lost their last 2 games, both against sides in the relegation zone, and on both occasions they have also failed to score. In fairness, both defeats have been 1-0, so Halifax are still a defensively robust side. In fact, they’ve only conceded more than 2 goals in a single game on 4 occasions this season, one of which was against Notts. So Halifax aren’t easily broken down.
Current Form:
Halifax are a side who are in a real slump. The Shaymen are a very streaky side, going on runs of 4 or 5 games where they look impressive, before going on another run where they look a shadow of that side. They are currently on the latter, winless in 4 games, picking up 1 point from a possible 12 in that time. This is a sharp downturn in form for the Shaymen, who had won 13 points from the previous 18 available, just highlighting the inconsistency of their form.
Notts should really be looking to take advantage of a side on the slide. They have lost their last 2 games, both against sides in the relegation zone, and on both occasions they have also failed to score. In fairness, both defeats have been 1-0, so Halifax are still a defensively robust side. In fact, they’ve only conceded more than 2 goals in a single game on 4 occasions this season, one of which was against Notts. So Halifax aren’t easily broken down.
Notts will be desperate to get back to winning ways at the third attempt with the previous two fixtures postponed due to frozen pitches.
Looking at the playing styles and there isn't a great deal of difference in the way the two teams have played this season. Halifax have a similar shape and style to Notts but their numbers are reduced to highlight that their match data stats are pretty average.
A look at the playing styles merged and the big difference is how dominant Notts are with their wing play. Halifax, due to spending a fair share of their games on the defensive had had to go long more than they would have liked but this would be due to defensive clearances and being forced to play over an opponents press.
Tactics & Players:
It's fair to assume Halifax will come to Meadow Lane and look to put as many players behind the ball as possible. They will more than likely look to follow the blueprint left by sides such as Yeovil and Boreham Wood. Halifax will look to pack their own box, defend deep and frustrate their hosts. They lack a goal threat generally; the only side that have scored fewer than them is the aforementioned Yeovil. Therefore, we expect Chris Millington to follow the approach Mark Cooper took against Notts. Prioritise defence, almost to the point where they neglect attack.
In recent weeks Halifax have reverted to a 4-2-3-1 system, to limited success. Their 5-2-2-1 system, very similar to that of Notts, has reaped better results, and this isn’t the only reason we foresee them switching back to their former system. This 5 at the back shape allows them to pack more players into the box, something they will be looking to do in order to frustrate their hosts. It also fits in with their personnel, or lack thereof, in the middle. A plethora of injuries to their midfield means they will have limited options in the middle, so a return to a 5 at the back system seems natural under the circumstances.
The system would also see Angelo Capello return to the side, and the Belizean international could be Halifax’s most threatening player when they visit Meadow Lane. Whilst he might not yet have the end product of other members of their side, if they are to sit in and defend deep, breaking with speed will be their key in threatening Notts’ goal. Capello has bags of pace, and is an extremely direct runner, attempting 6.17 dribbles per 90, 19th highest in the league. He also completes 65.28% of his dribbles, making him the 12th most successful dribbler in the league. Capello has transitioned well into an unfamiliar wing back role this season, and on Saturday could be a real difference maker.
It will be interesting to see if Millington goes for a target man up top, most likely to be Mani Dieseruvwe, or whether he would opt for a more mobile frontman, such as Millenic Alli, one who could stretch the Notts defence, and harass their defence too. Dieseruvwe is undoubtedly Halifax’s most threatening player in the box, as Notts fans will be all too aware of following his playoff goal at the Lane just last season. However, like many target men he is reliant on good service. If he is left up top in an isolated position he may not be as effective. It therefore will fall upon Millington to decide whether a static target man is the best approach for the game.
The aforementioned Alli is another player, like Capello, who loves to run with the ball and stretch the opposition backline. Alli attempts 6.93 dribbles per 90, 7th most in the league, and most of any Halifax player, so if given the ball on Saturday he will look to drive at Notts. He also takes 2.77 shots per 90, again the most of any Halifax player, so he’s certainly the Shaymen’s most active forward in the final third, and certainly one to keep an eye out for.
One player who could catch the eye is central defender Jesse Debrah, who’s likely to be very busy on Saturday afternoon. The 21 year old has been linked with EFL moves over the last 18 months, and for good reason. A physical central defender, Debrah is a superb out and out defender. He wins a colossal 78.5% of his defensive duels, the 8th best in the whole division. Comfortable enough on the ball too, Debrah is one who could really show his class at the weekend.
In his Solihull presser Luke Williams eluded to the fact that Notts have very rarely had to change their approach this season, and we expect much of the same this weekend. Notts must be patient, and stick to their way of playing, looking to work openings, and not get frustrated by the travelling Shaymen. However, Notts have come unstuck against low blocks at home before, so will have to be careful, playing with some impetus so as not ensure Halifax start to grow in confidence. The longer the opening goal takes the tougher it becomes to break these sides down, so we’re expecting a fairly fast Notts start.
We’ve already mentioned that Notts have lacked options off of the bench in recent times, such as against Boreham Wood, where chasing the game Notts had very few attacking players to call on. This is clearly a sentiment shared by Notts’ management, as they’ve looked to remedy this lack of depth by completing the loan signing of Oxford United winger Jodi Jones. Jones will bolster Luke Williams’ attacking options, and whilst it certainly seems to early for Jones to starting we expect him to be involved in some capacity this weekend. A tricky attacker, we took a more in depth look at Jones in the article linked below:
Stats:
The Shaymen currently sit 16th in the table, having played 26 games, picking up 32 points in the process. This means they earn 1.23 points per game (PPG) on average.
23 of these 32 points have come at home, making Halifax one of the worst performing sides on the road. They sit 18th in the away table, while they rank a respectable 10th at home.
As mentioned, only one side have scored fewer goals than Halifax. It’s not a surprise therefore that they average 0.92 goals per game, less than 1 a game. This reduces to 0.69 per game for away outings, again reinforcing the fact that they are not a side that travels well. They have an xG per game of 1.26, which suggests they are performing far below expectations in the attacking third.
Halifax are a decent side defensively, conceding 33 in those 26 games, giving them a goals conceded per game value of just 1.27. This increases to 1.46 per away game, once again showing their struggles on the road. These are both above their xG against per game of 1.17, suggesting they are slightly underperforming when it comes to keeping the ball out.
Halifax Away Form:
P 13 | W 2 | D 3 | L 8 | F 9 | A 19 | GD -10 | PTS 9
Leading Scorers:
Notts:
Macaulay Langstaff - 22 (xG 20.81)
FC Halifax:
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe - 7 (xG 7.72)
Odds:
A very one sided affair as far as the bookies go. At the time of writing the best you could get on a Notts win was 29/100 with Bet365.
Coral and Ladbrokes are offering 11/1 for the away win and you can get 5/1 for the draw with BetUK.
Based on these odds there is a 79.93% chance of a Notts win and 30.03% chance of a Halifax win.
Final thoughts:
While we’ve mentioned our trepidation around welcoming another side who are solid defensively to Meadow Lane, if Notts stick to their game plan they should have no issue dispatching of the Shaymen. There is simply too much of a difference in class between the two sides, something we saw when Notts blew them away in the return fixture. If Notts play their attacking passing game they should find it a fairly routine victory.
They will be given a boost by the fact that Halifax not only played in the week, but lost against bottom of the table Scunthorpe. However, while we will admit Notts are certainly the favourites, this is the National League, where, as we’ve found in our 4 years here, unexpected results pop up at the worst possible times. This is a great opportunity nonetheless, and hopefully by Saturday evening Notts will be back on top of the table.
As always thanks for reading.
Full stats report to follow.
COYP!
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Notes:
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