A clash of the titans at Edgeley Park on Tuesday night as the two pre season favourites for the National League title go head to head, but with both clubs yet to really fulfill their full potential.
Notts have flattered to deceive in recent games whilst the Hatters seem to have forgotten where the opposition goal is . . . so we should be in for a humdinger!
But first as usual we take a look at the xG data for the Chesterfield game . . . yes I know, sorry.
Three early sorties into Chesterfield territory provided Notts with their best chances in a game that turned out to be the Magpies lowest xG rating of the season.
Chesterfield, despite their high press didn't actually do much better themselves and the goal that won the game only had an xG rating of just 0.02 which makes the concession even more frustrating from a Notts perspective. The visitors rating could have been higher but the last couple of chances, particularly the Asante miss at the death have been weighted to account for the fact Notts had gone to 3 at the back as they pressed (kind of) for the equaliser.
Breakdown of the games chances for Notts below includes time of chance and xG rating. Not much doing . . .
Back onto the Hatters game now and first a quick look at the head 2 head stats followed by the recent form radar.
Goals by time segment for Stockport and it appears that when they used to score goals they liked a late one.
Notts' goal segment.
The following visuals look at expected points (xPTS) for both clubs vs actual points gained (aPTS) which allows us to look at overall performance for the season so far.
The above chart is for all of Stockport's league games up to Saturday, I don't as yet have the data for their defeat at Eastleigh.
Essentially the Hatters look like there actual results have pretty much tracked their expected results although it does appear they have not been matching their expected points in recent games.
We realised before the Chesterfield game that Notts had been getting better results than expected.
xG (expected goals) vs aG (actual goals) for both clubs below for the season so far.
Stockport's xG for the season is just over 34 goals and they have actually scored 30 meaning they may have been a little wasteful in front of goal. The good news for the Hatters is that despite not scoring in their last 3 outings they are still creating a reasonable number of chances so continue to offer a threat going forwards and if they can find their scoring boots again could see a decent run of results.
By contrast Notts have been scoring more goals than expected but the xG ratings for each match recently have been quite low which is a worry because not enough chances have been created compared to games earlier in the season.
Stockport are averaging 1.36 goals per game and average 13.36 goal attempts per 90 minutes meaning they score on average every 9.82 attempts per goal suggesting they can be slightly wasteful in front of goal.
Notts are averaging 1.30 goals per game and average 12.35 goal attempts per 90 minutes meaning they average a goal every 9.50 attempts.
The Hatters are conceding just 0.95 goals per game on average compared to Notts who are conceding just 0.75 goals per game.
Lead status for both clubs and for the first time this season Notts' trailing time hits double figures.
Both teams have an outside chance of going 3rd in the table with a win but equally defeat could see a drop out of the top 7.
Stockport are favourites with the bookies for the home win with odds at circa 6/5. Notts are around 19/10 for the away win and you're looking at circa 12/5 for the draw.
Based on these odds Notts would expect to have a 34% chance of winning, Stockport with a 45% chance of the win.
It's quite clear there is quality in both these teams and you would expect each of them to be up and around the top places by the end of the season, however goals are currently hard to come by for both and a 0-0 draw or a win either way by the odd goal would not go unexpected.
COYP!
Richard
Note:
Betting odds are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. Notts County Stats do not endorse any form of gambling or betting industry associated businesses.