Forget everything that has passed during the first dozen games played so far this season, if ever there was a game that should give some indication of how good, bad or indifferent Notts are right now this is it.
Stockport were fractionally the bookies favourites to win the league ahead of Notts before the season started and there is nothing to suggest they won't be up there challenging for automatic promotion.
If Notts have any aspirations of challenging for automatic promotion they need to get their house in order in ship shape fashion and there would be no better time to start than with a win over currently one of the best teams in the league.
Stockport currently sit 9th in the league, just 1 point behind Notts with 3 games in hand, have the best defence and are strong away from home.
Current league table:
Notts and Stockport have previously met on 34 ocassions with the 1-1 draw at Meadow Lane the only encounter between the two sides in the National League last season with the return at Edgely Park postponed due to the season curtailment.
Goals by time segment for Stockport:
Goal time segments for Notts:
Stockport have been at their most dangerous during the closing stages of a game with more than half of their goals coming in the last 30 minutes.
They are averaging 1.89 goals per game and average 13.77 goal attempts per game meaning they score on average every 7.29 attempts per goal.
Notts are averaging 1.50 goals per game and average 11.92 goal attempts per game meaning they average a goal every 7.94 attempts. This would suggest both Notts and Stockport have a similar attacking threat
The Hatters are conceding an average of just 0.89 goals per game compared to Notts who concede 1.00 goals per game on average.
Stockport have scored 17 goals but have an xG total of 19.56 suggesting they maybe should have converted at least a couple more times. Defensively their xGA is currently 10.07 which is a couple of goals higher than ther actual xGA which suggests they have performed better defensively than expected.
With 19 points from 9 games Stockport's current PPG is 2.11. We can compare this to their xPts which is based on performance and opponent difficulty and is then run through a Monte Carlo simulation and their expected points equates to 17.97 or 1.99 PPG which suggests their results are slightly better than their performances.
With 18 goals in 12 games Notts have an xG of 17.35 meaning their goal tally is slightly higher than expected.
Notts have 20 points from 12 games meaning a PPG of 1.66 compared to an xPts of 20.54 which equates to an xPPG of 1.71. This would suggest that performances have been slightly better than results but it is a very small margin.
Looking at the league table if we used the xPPG method Stockport would be top with 1.996 and Notts would be 5th with 1.711.
Interestingly to provide some contrast when you look at the same metrics for Torquay the xPts calculations equate to 20.19 opposed to their actual points tally of 31 pts. This would suggest that their results have been better than their actual performances by more than 10 points which might suggest their great start to the season may be difficult to sustain.
Lead status:
Following the late goal defeat to Boreham Wood, Notts' training average has increased slightly but remains a respectable 6 minutes per game which is very similar to Stockport.
A win for Notts will mean a jump back up to 3rd place. Defeat will see a drop to 8th with Stockport seeing a 6 place leap up to 3rd.
Wierdly Notts are slight favourites with the bookies, probably due to home advantage with odds of 13/10 for a Notts win, 9/5 for a Stockport win and 23/10 for the draw.
This equates to a 43% chance of winning for Notts and 36% chance of winning for the visitors.
Both teams had their games postponed due to Covid over the weekend so fitness shouldn't be an issue. It should be a very competitive encounter and a difficult one to predict as both Notts and Stockport offer an effective attacking threat and remain pretty resilient at the back so a draw wouldn't be a surprise.
COYP!
Richard
Note:
Betting odds are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. Notts County Stats do not endorse any form of gambling or betting industry associated businesses.
xG and xPts data courtesy xgstats.com