Woking are the visitors this weekend for matchday 9 in the Vanarama National League.
Notts will hopefully be looking to lay to rest the frustrations associated with the defeat at Altrincham in the previous fixture.
Woking on the other hand will be hoping to record two wins on the bounce for the first time this season and the first time since November 2020. Without doubt the 3-1 win over Chesterfield on Tuesday evening will have gone a long way towards lifting their confidence levels as they look to upset another of the leagues 'big' clubs.
Ian Burchnall has confirmed that Alex Lacey and to a lesser degree Connell Rawlinson might be available for selection on Saturday which should provide the Magpies with a bit of a lift.
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Woking are showing this season that given the right circumstances they can be an attacking threat and are second only to Dagenham in the current attack table scoring an average 2.17 goals per game.
However their xG (expected goals) is much lower at 1.54 goals per game. This means that the Cards have been over performing compared to xG which might suggest they have been a bit lucky in front of goal.
Notts by comparison have scored fractionally more goals than expected suggesting they have scored the goals their performances warranted.
As expected Notts' construction stats such as possession and passing are much higher than Woking who tend to play a much more direct style of football.
Looking at the goal segment chart for Woking its clear to see they have started and finished games well so far this season. This is something Notts will have to be conscious of especially considering this season's trend of slow starts so far.
You don't have to look too hard at Woking's squad to see the threats and none more so than ex Notts players Tahvon Campbell and Inih Effiong.
Campbell has had a very good start to the season with 6 goals in 6 games. Interestingly he has played as a Centre Forward, a Second Striker and a Left Winger during this campaign scoring in all three positions.
Campbell has an xG total for all games played this season of 1.74 which means he is hugely overachieving when compared to actual goals scored, especially when you consider he has scored his 6 goals from just 13 attempts.
Inih Effiong had a somewhat uninspiring short loan spell at Notts last season, scoring once in a hard earned 2-2 draw away at Boreham Wood. However his stats during that spell suggested he was better than it may have looked which I have to admit as bringing me some grief from a few Notts fans after I published those findings in last season's player ratings.
Needless to say with a goal and an assist to his name already this season in just 4 appearances Woking's direct approach will no doubt suit Effiong's physical attributes.
There is an interesting mix of experience and youth throughout the Woking squad suggesting this season's team will present an all too different challenge to the team that Notts did the double over last season.
Expect Woking to line up with a high pressing 3-4-1-2 formation that will suit their direct approach and won't involve much in the way of possession based football.
As mentioned earlier Notts will be hoping to have at least Alex Lacey available for selection which will add some much needed steel to the back line as well as provide another attacking dimension to Notts' build up play.
Notts are favourites with the bookies where you can currently get a measly 3/4 for the home win. The best you can currently get on a Woking win is 14/4 and you can get 14/5 for a draw.
Notts' xPTS (expected points) for the season so far is 13.6 suggesting they have been fractionally over performing, averaging 1.7 points per game.
Woking's xPTS is 9 which is exactly what their actual points are for the season so far, averaging 1.5 points per game.
When all the above is taken into consideration Notts would look to have a 55.26% chance of winning and Woking a 50% chance of winning which would indicate that a draw would not be an unexpected result.
The key to this game will depend on how Notts manage Woking's direct and physical approach. Again expect Notts to spend much of the game in possession as they look for opportunities to open up what will be a well drilled Woking unit.
Woking's 3-4-1-2 formation will allow them to drop into a 5-3-2 quite easily when defending which again will make them very difficult to break down.
Notts will be without Cal Roberts through suspension after picking up his 5th yellow card at Altrincham, this should allow Ian Burchnall to change things up a little without him needing to try and shoehorn both Roberts and Rodrigues into an attacking 3 with Kyle Wootton.
Whatever happens you can be sure this will be another test for Notts who will have to be at their absolute best if they are hoping to secure the win and and put another 3 points on the board.
As always thanks for reading and if you have any questions about the stats please feel free to give me a shout either in the comments section below, via the contact page on the website or through the usual social media channels.
COYP!
Richard
Note:
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