Notts County somehow came out on top in a game that saw Accrington Stanley provide the Magpies with their toughest game of the season so far.
The match stats data confirms just how close this game was, a game that maybe should have ended in a draw. However, it was two moments of unadulterated skill from Macaulay Langstaff and a point blank save from Aiden Stone that ultimately separated the two teams in an enthralling game of football.
At 58.60% Notts recorded their lowest ball possession stats since the 2-1 win away at Chesterfield back in February this year. Additionally Accrington posted better wing play numbers and there was very little separating the sides with the long pass %.
Despite Accrington recording more shots (15 - 10), Notts' xG came out fractionally higher meaning the chances created by the hosts were generally of a higher value. Looking at the overall xG data Andrews' 1 v 1 with Stone was a big chance missed with 0.45 xG and Coyles effort late in the game following a mix up in the Notts defence was a very big 0.57 xG, the biggest chance of the game.
Langstaff missed two big chances in the first half but made up for it with two very well taken goals, although his second goal recorded a very high xG of 0.50 suggesting that historically a high number of goals are scored from similar attempts on goal.
Interestingly Notts recorded much better PPDA numbers (passes allowed per defensive action) suggesting their pressing was better than the visitors. However this requires further analysis as both teams pressed in very different ways in a very tactical game.
In the first half Accrington used two of the wide attacking midfielders together with the lone striker to press the Notts back three when trying build. The central attacking midfielder sat in the space between the front line press and the two defensive midfielders. This meant that the half spaces Notts like to try and play through in the build up were covered resulting in Stone having no option but to go long, generally looking to find Langstaff. This is shown in the tactical image below.
For all of Langstaff's attributes aerial duels with a 6ft 3 inch central defender isn't one of them and Accrington would more often than not recover possession of the ball.
The Accrington press wasn't always an aggressive one, often they were happy to do just enough to force Notts to recycle the ball left to right and back again with Stone in goal having to make himself available as the extra player. Knowing it would force Stone to go long was a tactic that was confirmed by Accrington Boss John Coleman in his post match interview.
In the second half Notts changed things slightly from a 3-2-4-1/3-4-2-1 to a 3-4-1-2. This allowed McGoldrick to play a little higher alongside Langstaff meaning Notts had a little more success with the long ball with McGoldrick able to win more of his aerial duels than Langstaff was, something that actually provided the second goal with McGoldrick managing to find Langstaff with a header from a long clearance from the Notts keeper.
Luke Williams looked to shore things up after the second goal, bringing Chicksen on and changing to a back four, a set up that saw Notts drop into a deeper 4-4-1-1 with Langstaff now the lone striker with Crowley and then Austin just in behind. This invited a bit of extra pressure but Notts still looked dangerous on the break in what almost became a role reversal of the two teams and it was a turnover of possession in the Notts defensive third that saw Matty Palmer break through the middle and find Langstaff for the third goal.
What we now know is that Luke Williams is finding a way to tweak set up, formation and tactics mid game, and whilst this game still could have gone either way it would be unfair to suggest Notts were lucky and ignore the fact that Williams and his coaching staff are tactically managing to impact games in a positive manner.