Vanarama National League | 20 November 2021
Eastleigh 2 - 0 Notts County
Silverlake Stadium
Attendance: 2,817
Ian Burchnall didn't pull any punches in his post match interview suggesting it was a tired looking performance lacking in tempo and struggling to deal with Eastleigh's press. I think when he looks back at the game and some of the stats he might re-evaluate those comments because despite the defeat Notts still scored highly in many of the construction and attacking actions.
Regarding Eastleigh's goals he was spot on however and it's a concern that crosses and set pieces were identified as Eastleigh's biggest threat and that's exactly where their goals came from.
Key match stats.
It's a familiar story for Notts above, 676 passes and 88.17 of those successfully completed is among the highest passing stats recorded for the Magpies this season.
A match tempo of 17.79 is also the highest recorded this season and Notts' resistance to the Eastleigh press was also high at 22 passes as well as reducing Eastleigh to just 6.78 passes per defensive action.
Points needed updated and 1.750 PPG on average would historically just about see a top 3 finish if sustained. Click on the legend tags at the top to filter options.
Progress updated. The defeat see's a drop to 6th.
National League results tracker updated.
Goal segment chart updated.
Six game segments updated. 1.750 PPG average for the first four games of this six game segment.
Player stats next and this is the new table that is also available to view on the player stats page of the website here. There will also be separate tables for the two cup competitions.
Goals and assists chart updated for all competitions.
Goal scatter chart.
Expected goals.
On the face of it Eastleigh can probably think themselves lucky to come away with the 3 points as a draw would have been the most likely outcome.
Notts' player xG below, Kyle Wootton recording 66% of the total xG for Notts and probably ruing one if not two good chances in the game.
I suppose what really jumps out at you looking at the table below is that Notts created 16 goal attempts yet only 3 of those attempts provided a more than 10% likelihood of being converted.
One thing we don't seem to be seeing this season is any goals from long range which is something we saw a fair bit of in previous seasons.
Match xG and xPTS and as mentioned previously a draw would have been the most likely outcome if not for a couple of poor defensive errors.
National League goal scorers includes cup games, penalties and own goals.
Ian Burchnall's record updated after 39 matches.
A big challenge awaits Ian Burchnall's men on Tuesday night away at Boreham Wood who are sitting pretty in second place in the league just a point behind leaders Chesterfield.
In fact the Wood's last defeat was in fact a 2-1 loss at Chesterfield and their only other defeat was away to Solihull in September.
The Hertfordshire club are unbeaten at home this season winning 6 and drawing 2 with a +11 goal difference.
Scott Boden currently tops the goal charts for The Wood with 7 league and 2 FA Cup goals including 2 goals in the 4-0 win at home to Maidenhead on Saturday.
The bookies currently have Boreham Wood as very slight favourites at 31/20 for the win with Notts at 8/5 and 11/5 for the draw.
Boreham Wood's expected chance of winning is 39% but historically they win 38% of games with these odds
Notts expected chance of winning is 38% but historically have won 60% of games when at these odds. Fingers crossed!
COYP!
Richard