To suggest Chesterfield wanted this more than Notts would be unfair as I don't believe any player in the current Notts squad goes into a game wanting to win it less than their opponents.
That said it wouldn't be unfair to suggest there is a hint of a soft underbelly in the Magpies defensive armour that has had a horrible way of presenting itself at critical times this season.
On this occasion it was the spectre of set pieces past that did it's worst as Chesterfield punished Notts for old habits and the Spireites centre back Laurence Maguire, who hadn't had a whiff of a goal in 15 previous league games found himself bagging a brace.
On a positive note it was good to see Eli Sam continue his good form and whilst it offers scant consolation we should at least commend him on the way he has taken his chance since being reintroduced to the starting line up.
Key match stats.
Worst set of stats for some time for Notts. Second best in most areas but most notably in the construction stats where possession, passes and pass accuracy were well below usual standards.
Points needed and as mentioned in my last report I've decided to re-evaluate the targets based on how this season has gone to this point. It's likely that 78/79 points will be needed to finish in the top 7. As it stands that's pretty much where Notts appear to be heading. I would suggest 85+ points will be needed to finish top 3.
Click on the legend tags at the top to filter options.
Progress updated and I've added a logarithmic trend line which will provide some idea of progress for the season and where Notts might finish.
National League results tracker updated.
Goal segment chart:
Six game segments updated and 10 points in 5 games for this segment.
Player stats updated:
As usual this is the new table that is also available to view on the player stats page of the website here. There will also be separate tables for the two cup competitions.
Goals and assists chart. I've given an assist to Palmer for Sam's goal, it's a bit tenuous though as its not a stretch to suggest it was a solo effort from Eli.
Goal scatter charts updated and there's evidence in the 'conceded' chart to suggest that we need to be defending our 6 yard box a bit better.
You can hover on the dots (tap if on a touch screen) to view details for each goal.
Expected goals (xG) and we have to take into account that Chesterfields xG is inflated by the penalty and without it would have been in the region of 1.49.
What can't be ignored is the fact that Notts' starting 11 was probably the most attack minded we could field from the current squad, yet in the second half just 2 chances were created and there was the best part of 30 minutes between them.
Match xG stats:
Player xG Stats:
One last thing on xG and xPTS, I've not done the actual versus expected points comparisons yet this season but will start to include these in any previews I do. However until then xPTS for Notts this season is 49.20 so essentially 3 points less than actual points so far.
xG is 45.34 versus actual goals of 53 so might suggest Notts have had some luck in front of goal but more likely down to some very good goals being scored with a lower xG value. Again, this is something I'll look to do a bit more on soon.
National League goal scorers includes cup games, penalties and own goals.
Ian Burchnall's record updated after 55 games:
To summerise maybe the less said the better. Personally I think we have a squad of very talented young players and a Head Coach in Ian Burchnall who ticks a lot of boxes, but we do seem to be missing one or two experienced heads on the pitch to help get this team through difficult situations.
Anyway, a chance to put things right on Saturday when Yeovil are the visitors to Meadow Lane.
As always thanks for reading.
COYP!
Richard