Notts made it 6 games unbeaten in the league with a credible draw away at second placed MK Dons. However, you could forgive the near 2,800 travelling Magpies for coming away from the game feeling a little disappointed with the draw. In fact, it's a testament to the work being undertaken by Luke Williams and his coaching staff that many fans would feel this way such are the expectations set.
The match data would most definitely suggest Notts were in complete control but for a couple of defensive lapses but an anomaly in the xG data provided by Wyscout means a 1-1 draw was exactly the right result.
MK Dons were happy not to press the Notts back three, instead sitting in a mid/low block and settling into a 3-5-3 formation. This meant it was a totally different game to that which we saw against Accrington last week with Notts, on this occasion having to keep recycling the the ball before probing for an attacking phase of play. This resulted in over 71% ball possession for the Magpies.
In fact looking at the match actions radar it is almost a carbon copy of pretty much every home game played in the National League last season. It was also a game of few chances although MK did manage to register a couple more attempts. This is where the xG suddenly throws up the afore mentioned anomaly.
Prior to Ellis Harrisons miss in time added on the data probabilities would have had Notts as likely winners, however, that miss was a massive 0.49 xG making the game look much closer than it probably was and a draw being a fair result. The problem we have arises because that attempt was given offside. had he scored the goal would have been struck off and so would the attempt. If we do remove this from the equation then the match probabilities suddenly look very different.
Match xG would be MKD 0.53 - 1.12 Notts. This would then work out as xPTS = MKD 0.78 - 1.91 Notts and win% = MKD 15.49% - 53.38% Notts.
I have requested clarity on Harrisons effort from Wyscout, after all, if he had missed that chance when onside but was pulled down and a penalty given the shot would be discarded. I will try to keep you updated on any response.
Looking at the game itself it was interesting to see it played out very much as we identified in our opposition analysis and preview. The MKD back three were very solid but also very static in their play. Their wing backs, much like Notts started quite high but slowly dropped deeper as Notts had more and more of the ball. This became more apparent after they took the lead early in the second half. Again we mentioned the threat carried by left wing back Daniel Harvie and it was no surprise he when he gave the home team the lead on 46 minutes. This was another of several concessions we have become accustomed to Notts giving away, losing the ball in the opposition half only to see them make the most of the space in behind our wing back followed by a lack of closing down.
However, Notts continued to stick to their game and it was a thunderous strike from captain Kyle Cameron that levelled the game. The Magpies had big chances of their own to win the game and one of the biggest threats for Luke Williams' men came from out wide on the right. With no Jodi Jones or David McGoldrick Notts found themselves relying heavily on the link up play down the right between Crowley and Nemane, and then with Adebayo-Rowling later in the second half.
Notts recorded a total of 32 crosses with 26 (81%) of those coming down the right. Dan Crowley Accounted for 9 crosses (No.7), Tobi Adebayo-Rowling 8 (No.21) and Aaron Nemane 5 (No.11). We can see below how differently the three players are utilised on that right side. Crowley very much likes to get his crosses in early from a deeper position but this of course is dictated by the space in which he plays.
Nemane tends to get on the end of balls in behind the wide central defender with a focus on cross goal or cut back crosses. Adebayo-Rowling is very different in that he loves to get to the by line, a style that very much gets bums off seats in the stands and looking at areas his crosses hit you can see how much of a miss McGoldrick was, but also had Chicksen still been on the pitch these are the kind of crosses he did so well from last season ghosting in at the far post.
It's worth noting that even with Nemane switching to the left for the last 30 minutes or so he didn't make another cross, again confirming how reliant Notts were on that right side.
Another player we highlighted in our opposition report was centre back Jack Tucker. The 23 year old was tasked with keeping tabs on Macaulay Langstaff and on the whole was commendable in keeping to his task. He was successful in all but two of his defensive duels, made 11 interceptions and 10 recoveries in his own half. However, the only two times he was beaten was both close range efforts by Langstaff, either of which would have been match winners had they gone in.
In conclusion it's difficult to find fault in a draw with second place away from home. The big difference this season is with three automatic promotion places to play for a point on the road isn't the end of the world, unlike last season where every last point possible was critical. Taking the positives it was a game which on another day Notts would have won and would have done so without two key players.